It has been a brutal start to the season for me. There have been near misses but also games I’ve just flat missed the mark on. I was 2-6 here in this column through the first 2 weeks of the season and then had an 0-for week last week. There’s no hiding from the record, and no excuse for the start. The quest back to .500 begins this week.

Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 4.

Duke -15 at Middle Tennessee State (-108 via DraftKings)

This has blowout written all over it for me. Jonathan Brewer is running the offense for Manny Diaz, and he has turned transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy loose through the first quarter of the regular season. Murphy has 122 pass attempts in 3 games, completing 64% of those for 801 yards and 8 scores. Murphy has 8 big-time throws this season and only 3 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. Against the Blue Raiders, he’ll see a defense that is dead last in the country defending the pass. Per game on paper, MTSU ranks 134th in EPA per dropback allowed, 134th in passing success rate allowed, and 130th in yards per dropback allowed. In 2 games against FBS teams, the Blue Raiders have given up 101 points and 878 passing yards. Duke can and should go to the air often, and for a team playing fast, there should be a ton of possessions available for the Blue Devils to clear a big number.

USC team total over 23.5 points at Michigan (-135 via DraftKings)

I initially liked USC at -6, but I also believe the shift from Davis Warren to Alex Orji at quarterback offers the potential for some unforeseen juice from the home side. Michigan will shift its emphasis to a zone read-based rushing attack and test the biggest question mark on this USC team — its defensive line. I think the safer play is to back USC on a team total. Lincoln Riley is pretty much above reproach when it comes to putting together strong offenses and gameplans that can capitalize on weakpoints. With Michigan, Texas exposed leaky spots in the secondary around star corner Will Johnson and Riley should be able to exploit the spot opposite Johnson. Jyaire Hill has been burned a few times already this season, missed several tackles, and given up a touchdown in coverage. Slot corner Zeke Berry has given up catches on 6 of the 9 plays he’s been targeted. Michigan currently ranks 71st nationally in yards per dropback allowed this season and USC has been really efficient when going to the air. Wink Martindale is going to take chances — he’s not going to give up who he is as a defensive play-caller 3 games into the season — and I think Riley will be able to burn him when he does. I like the Trojan offense against the Michigan defense.

Army -6.5 vs. Rice (-112 via DraftKings)

Rice has struggled heavily to stay on the field. It has lost both games against FBS opponents by a combined 67-21. In those 2 games, Rice has gone 3-and-out on 14 of its 25 offensive possessions. They also have 4 turnovers in those games. Getting going has been the issue; Rice averaged 3.3 yards per play on first downs against Sam Houston State and then 2.1 yards per play on first down against Houston. Per college football insiders, Army is 39th nationally in early downs EPA. Rice hasn’t valued its offensive possessions to this point in the season, and that’s a horrible trend to have going into a game against a service academy where the possessions are already going to be limited. Army is looking like one of the top teams in the American this season and has opened the season 2-0 ATS while beating the number by a huge margin.