We got back on track last week with a perfect 3-0 slate. I gave my thoughts on a ton of games on the Week 5 slate earlier this week, and a few things have admittedly changed. I can’t wait for the Alabama-Georgia tilt, but the more I dig into the game, the less confident I am in Alabama. I’m likely staying away from that game entirely on Saturday in an effort to just enjoy what should be a Game of the Year candidate.

Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 5.

Miami over 34.5 total team points (-140 via DraftKings)

Miami isn’t just 4-0 on the season, the Hurricanes are also 4-0 against the spread for the first time since 2016. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has lost to both power conference teams it has faced (Vanderbilt, Rutgers) and struggled to pull away from the 2 Sun Belt teams it has faced. The Hokies gave up 5.7 yards per rushing attempt to Marshall, then 6.2 yards per run to Old Dominion.

I don’t see a scenario where Virginia Tech slows Miami down because there just isn’t an area where the VT defense has an edge against the Miami offense. The Hurricanes are first in the country in adjusted offensive EPA per play, according to game on paper. Miami is averaging 11 yards per dropback against what is an admittedly weaker schedule but Cam Ward has undoubtedly asserted himself as the Heisman frontrunner. The Hokies gave up 8 explosive pass plays to Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis a week ago.

A Miami offense that has fully embraced the pass game should go up and down the field against Virginia Tech. While Miami hasn’t played a run of world-beaters yet, Virginia Tech has also struggled with offenses that don’t hold a candle to the one Miami brings to this fight.

UConn -5.5 vs. Buffalo (-112 via DraftKings)

UConn was smacked in Week 1 by Maryland. The Huskies turned the ball over 3 times, went 5-for-16 on third down, and struggled heavily to stop the run in a 50-7 loss. Since that result, UConn is 3-0 against the spread and a very profitable team. The Huskies beat a 15.5 number by 30.5 points against Merrimack, covered by 12 points in a tight loss to Duke, then covered by 34 points in a drubbing of Florida Atlantic last weekend.

In the win over FAU, the Huskies ran for a school-record 421 yards. Two different backs (Durell Robinson, Mel Brown) topped 100 yards on the ground. Since the opener, UConn is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and leaning all-in on the ground-and-pound approach. It’s a natural spot to fade Buffalo this week, on the heels of a 3-point overtime win as a 13-point underdog. Buffalo was outgained 359-186 in the game, but it won the turnover margin and that was the difference. Plus, the Bulls are 91st nationally in rushing success rate allowed.

Boise State vs. Washington State over 63.5 total points (-112 via DraftKings)

The total was 65 earlier in the week, and I’m not scared that it has been bet down. I think points will be aplenty in this matchup. Washington State is coming off a 54-point outing on offense. Boise State scored 56 in its opener and then put 34 on Oregon in Eugene.

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty ran for 267 yards in the opener, 192 yards and 3 touchdowns against Oregon, and 127 yards in a limited role in a Week 3 blowout. Washington State, meanwhile, ranks 83rd nationally in rushing success rate allowed. It gave up 75 yards on 14 carries to UW’s Jonah Coleman and 94 yards on 11 carries to San Jose State’s Floyd Chalk IV.

On the other side, Wazzu quarterback John Mateer has been amazing. A true dual-threat weapon, Mateer has thrown for 1,102 yards, run for 425 yards, and found the endzone 16 times. Now he gets a defense that ranks 89th in overall success rate allowed. In an after-dark matchup, this has the feeling of a barn-burner.