After 15 weeks of football, the College Football Playoff bracket is set. Twelve teams made it in. A bunch of teams got their feelings hurt. Now the chase for a national championship truly begins.

I’m thinking about two big-picture things as we get set for the first-ever 12-team CFP.

The first: How will the top 4 seeds look on the other side of their bye? When we see tournament action in college basketball, the team that has been playing can get hot and catch the team with the rest off-guard. Top-seed Oregon will go more than 20 days between games. This isn’t your typical in-season bye week Do the Ducks fall out of rhythm? Of course, college football is drastically different from college basketball in the wear and tear aspect. Oregon will presumably be as healthy as it has been all year. The team that plays the week prior could suffer a devastating injury that puts a starter’s status in jeopardy.

The second: This Playoff won’t necessarily be about determining who the best college football team is. Matchups will be decisive. Coaches who can identify and exploit matchups become all the more important. Arizona State might be able to give Oregon a game because of how it is constructed; the Sun Devils don’t put the football in danger and lean on their punishing tailback. But Arizona State might not even get the chance to face the Ducks.

After a season of parity, this CFP could be a chaotic one. I’m going to cast a wide net. I like getting plus value on the SEC to be the conference of the championship winner (+130 via ESPN Bet). I’m even going to throw a little something on Arizona State — 11-2 ATS and SU winners of 6 straight — to win a single game and make the CFP semis (+320 via FanDuel). I’ll run down each of the first-round Playoff games in the coming days. For now, here are a few bigger wagers I’m making now that we have our bracket.

Notre Dame to make the national championship (+550 via ESPN Bet)

The belief is that Penn State was handed the best draw by the selection committee of any of the 12 Playoff-bound teams. It’s hard to disagree that Penn State was given a favorable draw, but Penn State also has to win those games.

I would argue Notre Dame has a solid path to the title game, value in the market, and matchup advantages with the potential teams it could face.

The last time we saw Indiana play anyone with a pulse, it could not protect its quarterback or create lanes for the run. On the season, Ohio State’s defense ranks fourth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Notre Dame ranks second. I expect Notre Dame to win its first-round game with a degree of comfort.

In the quarterfinals, Notre Dame gets to play a remarkably inconsistent Georgia team that is now dealing with a quarterback injury. The Bulldogs will have 3 weeks to get Carson Beck healthy, sure, but even Beck at 100% gives me a level of concern against the Notre Dame secondary.

Notre Dame leads the nation in EPA per dropback allowed. Notre Dame leads the nation in passer rating against. Only Texas gives up fewer yards per pass attempt (5.1, Notre Dame is at 5.6). Only 3 teams have picked off more passes. Only seven teams have defended more passes. Beck has 20 turnover-worthy throws this season — the seventh most in the FBS. And if it’s not him, it’ll be Gunner Stockton, who we saw make an awful decision that led to a turnover and an overtime-forcing field goal for Texas in the SEC Championship Game.

Should Notre Dame make the semis, it’ll meet either Boise State, SMU, or Penn State. The Nittany Lions and Mustangs both have elite run defenses that can pose problems for Notre Dame, but one of them will get eliminated in the first round. Boise State is the wild card as we don’t know how it’ll scale against an elite opponent. We saw them give Oregon a fight on the road, though Oregon was a different team early in the year — still figuring out its offensive line — and Jeanty repeatedly slashed the Achilles heal. Boise State might be able to punish Notre Dame’s weak run defense, but again, SMU and Penn State are both equipped to stop the run.

Oregon to win the national championship (+380 via FanDuel)

Oregon is the only team in the FBS to finish the season unbeaten. Oregon went wire-to-wire as the No. 1 in the CFP selection committee’s rankings. Oregon is the closest thing I’ve seen all year to an elite team. And yet Oregon is not the outright favorite to win the national championship.

Needing to beat Ohio State a second time is a bit concerning, but I’m not convinced the Buckeyes get past Tennessee in the opening round. Oregon should be concerned about the prospect of facing Arizona State tailback Cam Skattebo in the semifinals. Skattebo would cause serious issues for the Ducks’ run defense. I generally agree that Oregon was handed one of the toughest paths in the CFP, which is remarkable considering the circumstances.

That being said, betting on Oregon at this point is a bet on Dillon Gabriel and Dan Lanning. And that’s a bet I’m comfortable making. Lanning has identified and pressed the correct button every week. No moment has been too big. No team has been overlooked. Oregon has won in tight, low-scoring affairs. Oregon has won in shootouts. Of all the teams in the field, this is the one I trust the most.

The Ducks have the highest floor, in my eyes. They allow the third-lowest havoc rate to opposing defenses of any team in the country. Gabriel has a deep group of pass-catchers who can hit explosives, but he operates within an offense that trades all-or-nothing plays for ruthless efficiency. Among FBS quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks this year, only 4 have fewer turnover-worthy throws than Gabriel. Oregon’s defense has been a problem throughout the year, but it has shown it has the talent to step up in the biggest moments and create stops.

SMU +8.5 at Penn State (-110 via ESPN Bet)

Oregon’s perimeter speed on offense caused all kinds of issues for Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Dillon Gabriel completed 22 of his 32 passes for 283 yards and 4 scores. Per PFF, he had an average depth of just 5.5 yards on all of his targets. The Ducks hit 13 of 16 passes between the numbers and within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage, repeatedly attacking the underneath parts of Penn State’s defense. I think Brashard Smith in the pass game is a unique matchup that SMU can exploit.

I’m also very curious to see how SMU’s defense looks against Penn State. In the Big Ten title game, the Nittany Lions ran into trouble when they went to the air. They were in the game because of their ability to move the ball on the ground. What happens if that ground game gets taken away? Ohio State and Minnesota both shut down Penn State’s rushing attack and we know how those games went. Ohio State held Penn State to 13 points in Happy Valley. Minnesota lost by just 1. SMU ranks No. 4 in EPA per run faced, per Game on Paper. The Mustangs have given up just 2.7 yards per carry this year, the third-best mark in the FBS. Only 3 FBS defenses have given up fewer runs of 15 yards or more. And UNLV is the only FBS defense that has broken up or intercepted more passes this year.

This is a massive psychological spot for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are viewed as a team that can’t win the big game. Since winning the Big Ten in 2016, James Franklin is 4-17 against AP Top 15 teams. Just since the start of the 2022 season, Franklin has been 1-7 against AP Top 15 teams. Playing this game at home is nice, but the atmosphere can quickly flip against the home team if Penn State starts slow.