And then there were 4.

After a first round devoid of upsets and a quarterfinal round wherein every higher seed lost, the College Football Playoff has handed us the 4 best teams in football. According to Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric, the 4 teams that will compete in the CFP semis are the 4 most efficient teams.

We should be in for a doozy.

Here’s how I’m betting the action, which kicks off on Thursday from the Orange Bowl.

(All odds below via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, Orange Bowl — Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Notre Dame -1.5 | Total: 44.5 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -130, Penn State +110

I’ve been a believer in Notre Dame all season. The Irish have won 12 straight games since that loss to NIU. During the winning streak, they have a net differential of plus-27.5 points per game. They’ve covered the spread in 10 straight games dating back to Sept. 28, and they’ve beaten the spread by an average of 11.4 points per game during that ATS winning streak. Notre Dame won the line of scrimmage against Georgia, which helped to silence any remaining doubts that this Irish team was built for a title. Notre Dame has answered every question.

I somewhat reluctantly think this is the time to jump off the bandwagon. While Notre Dame has won by double-digits in both of its first 2 Playoff games, neither have featured consistently dominant displays from the offense.

Notre Dame’s defense manhandled Indiana’s offense, but IU clearly wasn’t up to the task. The Irish offense got a 98-yard rushing touchdown a little more than 4 minutes into the game and after that really didn’t do much. Remove that 1 play and Notre Dame averaged 4.5 yards per play against Indiana behind a passing attack that just nickel-and-dimed it down the field. Seventeen of Notre Dame’s 23 points against Georgia came in 54 seconds between the end of the second and the start of the third quarters.

The Irish have hit explosives. The question is whether those can continue. Notre Dame has been pretty reliant on them.

Against Indiana, it was Jeremiyah Love providing the spark. Love practiced this week with a brace on his knee and looked clunky doing so. He’s not 100% and will face a Penn State defense that ranks sixth nationally in EPA per run faced, per Game on Paper.

Against Georgia, Notre Dame was dependent on Georgia mistakes — a strip sack that set the offense up at the Georgia 13 in the closing seconds of the first half, bad kickoff coverage to begin the second half, a hilarious drop on a would-be Georgia touchdown. Georgia played sloppy, but it outgained Notre Dame on a per-play basis, 4.9 yards to 4.

Two banged-up stars — 1 on each side of the ball — can swing this game. If Love isn’t healthy and/or limited in what he can do, Penn State can focus more of its efforts on corralling quarterback Riley Leonard, who is essentially a 1-to-1.5-read quarterback at the moment. But in order to do so, the Nittany Lions need to have edge rusher Abdul Carter on the field.

Carter missed 3 quarters against Boise State and has been limited in practice this week for the Nittany Lions. “At this point, I don’t think there’s anything stopping him from playing, but it’s going to come down to, how is he able to play?” coach James Franklin said over the weekend. Carter, with his 21.5 tackles for loss this season (second in FBS), is critical to the Leonard coverage.

Penn State isn’t going to be overmatched at the line of scrimmage like Indiana was. And this is a Nittany Lions team that just doesn’t beat itself. They have just 14 giveaways in 15 games, they’re one of the lesser penalized teams in the FBS (5.3 flags per game, 32nd). And they don’t give up a ton of momentum-swinging plays to opposing defenses (10th nationally in havoc rate against). Quarterback Drew Allar is a big part of that; among FBS passers with at least 300 dropbacks this season, Allar’s turnover-worthy throw rate of 1.6% is the fifth lowest, per PFF.

Georgia couldn’t run on Notre Dame, but it didn’t exactly try. Nate Frazier only got 4 carries. Penn State is going to feed its backs and try to keep Allar in advantageous downs.

This was the semifinal that I envisioned on this side of the bracket. I picked Notre Dame and Penn State to meet in this spot before the Playoff began, and I initially took Notre Dame to advance to the national championship game. Based on what I’ve seen through the first 2 rounds, I’m starting to buy Penn State. I think the Nittany Lions get it done.

Bet Penn State +2.5 (-110 via Caesars)

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas, Cotton Bowl — Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Ohio State -6 | Total: 53.5 | Moneyline: Ohio State -238, Texas +195

Ohio State opened as a 6.5-point favorite despite this being a de-facto home game for the Texas Longhorns. The Cotton Bowl will be played right in the heart of Texas, and yet the Buckeyes were an almost touchdown favorite. That’s Vegas telling us that Ohio State is the best team in the field right now. The number was bet down since it opened — FanDuel has it sitting at 5.5 at the time of publication on Tuesday — but I don’t think it was high enough even when it opened.

What we’ve seen from Ohio State over the last 2 games is a team in peak form. This is the best team in America. It’s the deepest team in America at all the important positions. It’s the hottest team in America. And we’ve seen 4 games worth of evidence now to suggest Texas just isn’t as great as its numbers would suggest. My numbers say this will be close. My eyes tell me something different.

The Longhorns gave up 24 and then 31 points in their first 2 Playoff games. They gave up 336 yards through the air to Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and then gave up 296 total passing yards to Arizona State. Texas was outgained 510-375 in that quarterfinal game. Texas was outplayed in that quarterfinal game. The Longhorns are very realistically a targeting call away from spending the CFP semis back in Austin.

Texas was mediocre during the regular season against the best teams it played, losing to Georgia at home and then again in the SEC title, and narrowly escaping disaster in College Station.

The Longhorns were incapable of running the football against Arizona State — 1.8 yards per carry on 30 attempts — and Quinn Ewers was picked off late in the game in a critical spot. In the first round, we saw Texas find success in a gameplan that leaned heavy on the run and asked Ewers to simply play risk-averse.

Ohio State ranks in the top 20 nationally in EPA per run faced and rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper. And we’ve seen the Buckeyes step their play up since the CFP began. Tennessee averaged 3.9 yards per carry. Oregon finished with negative rushing yardage on 28 attempts.

Two things stand out here. Can Texas survive the first quarter? And can Texas play the way it wants on offense? Ohio State has dictated the terms of engagement through its first 2 games. Tennessee had 9 rushing attempts for 16 yards while Ohio State threw for 160 yards and scored 21 points in the opening quarter of its first-round game. Oregon had 4 rushing attempts for 7 yards while Ohio State threw for 212 yards and scored 14 points in the opening quarter of the quarterfinals. Ohio State is plus-35 in the first quarter on the scoreboard and outgaining its opponents 11.2 yards per play to 2.0.

Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has leaned heavily on the superhuman weapon that is Jeremiah Smith, who has drawn 9 first-quarter targets in the last 2 games and produced 5 explosive plays on them. And given the Longhorns’ inability to slow down either of the last 2 passers they have faced, there’s reason to believe Ohio State can punk another secondary. Smith, simply put, is a receiver who cannot be stopped. And if Texas over-commits to him, the Buckeyes have too many weapons elsewhere to burn the defense. This is why Ryan Day brought Kelly to Columbus in the offseason. This is what he envisioned.

I see Ohio State jumping on Texas early, as it did Tennessee and Oregon, and forcing the Longhorns to throw to get themselves going. Ewers has 19 turnover-worthy throws this season. The other 3 starting quarterbacks left in the CFP have 28 total. Ohio State should want to turn this into a track meet.

I’m making a number of bets on this game. I think Texas is the weakest team in the field and Ohio State is clearly playing like the best. There is rout potential here.

Bet Ohio State -5.5 (-118 via FanDuel)

+ Bet first-quarter total over 10.5 points (-102 via DraftKings)

+ Bet over 53 total points (-110 via Caesars)