We had 2 College Football Playoff elimination games in Week 11 and we’ll get another one in Week 12. But the rest of the slate looks like a modest appetizer ahead of Week 13. There are 19 games involving teams ranked in last week’s CFP Top 25. Fourteen of them have a spread of at least 10 points. And a 15th game involves an FCS team. Who is going to disappoint this week?

Here’s what I’m paying attention to in Week 12.

  • Last week: 6-4
  • 2024 season: 54-41-1

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

Kent State at Miami (OH)

Miami -30 | Total: 46

A 30-point spread in a game that does not feature a power conference team against a G5-or-lower team will always pique my interest. A 30-point spread with a 46-point total makes this even more interesting. Kent State is, without a doubt, the worst team in the FBS this season. The Golden Flashes have lost all 9 of their games this season and 18 straight dating back to last year. Kent State ranks dead last in Game on Paper‘s net adjusted EPA per play metric. Miami ranks 46th nationally in the same metric. The Redhawks have scored more than 30 points only twice this season. Is Kent State bad enough to where the Redhawks actually win by 30? The Ohio team that just beat Kent State 41-0 lost to Miami 30-20, so, maybe. The obvious move here is to take the massive underdog, but I actually think Kent State is, in fact, that bad. The Redhawks are outstanding at limiting explosive plays defensively and a 7-on-7 team could run on this Kent State defense.

Bet Miami -30

UCLA at Washington

Washington -3.5 | Total: 47

I like the situational spot for Washington here. The Huskies are 5-0 at home this season and they’re 0-4 in true road games, for one. They’re coming off a pasting at the hands of Penn State in not-so-Happy Valley over the weekend and now get to prepare for a team they actually have tape of. UCLA, meanwhile, has won 3 in a row after 5 straight losses. All 3 of those victories were by a single score against defense-leaning teams. Washington fits that mold, too, but the Huskies also might have an advantage in preparation after Jedd Fisch pulled Will Rogers halfway through the loss to Penn State. Demond Williams Jr. offers a rushing component Will Rogers just doesn’t. And UCLA will have to prepare for him regardless.

As UCLA has begun to roll, Ethan Garbers has found a groove. In his last 3, the senior from Newport Beach has thrown for 805 yards and 8 touchdowns. Prior to this run of form, Garbers was averaging 220 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game. He has had a 4:1 touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio in the last 3 and had a 4:9 ratio prior. Six of the Huskies’ 8 defensive interceptions this season have come inside Husky Stadium, and the pass defense ranks third nationally in EPA per dropback faced (Game on Paper).

Bet Washington -3.5

Utah at N0. 18 Colorado

Colorado -10.5 | Total: 47

One of 2 things will come from Utah’s Week 11 result. The near-upset of a bitter rival will galvanize the Utes to close out the year with some juice. Or, their best punch still failing to land will officially break the spirit. I’m thinking it’ll be the latter. Utah lost 22-21 to BYU at home thanks in no small part to a controversial holding call that extended BYU’s game-winning drive. Utah AD Mark Harlan blasted the Big 12 officials in the postgame, saying the game was “absolutely stolen.”

Regardless of feelings, Utah has lost 5 straight. The Utes tried their third quarterback of the season in the game and the results were mixed. Brandon Rose generated 112 yards on 21 pass attempts. And Utah lost tight end Brant Kuithe to a season-ending injury in the process. The defense is fine, but it continues to get no help whatsoever from the offense.

I wonder if this game gets ugly. Colorado — which has won 3 straight and 6 of the last 7 — is a better football team right now than Utah. But Utah has won 7 straight in this matchup, and there have been some brutal results in Boulder over the years. The last time the Utes visited Folsom Field, they beat Colorado 63-21. With the Buffs fighting for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, this might be an emotional day. A couple of early turnovers could tilt the field heavily in favor of the Buffs. Utah has been incredibly fortunate with fumbles this year (11 total, only 3 lost) and only 1 FBS team has thrown more interceptions.

Bet Colorado -10.5

Liberty at UMass

Liberty -14.5 | Total: 52

The Flames thought they were a Playoff contender prior to the season (they weren’t) and those dreams are completely dead now at 6-2. They might not even make their conference’s title game. So, what’s left to play for?

Quite a bit, actually. Liberty still has games against 2 of the 3 teams ahead of it in the CUSA standings, so it is still very much alive in the title race. Those games come after a trip to Amherst, Massachusetts, to face a UMass team whose only wins this season have come against FCS competition. UMass has one of the least explosive offenses you’ll find, a group that is entirely dependent on its offensive line paving out yardage on the ground. The pass game is a mess and the run defense is worse. In its last 4 games against FBS teams, the defense has given up an average of 251.2 rushing yards a game at 6.4 yards per carry. Liberty is coming off a 37-point performance where Kaidon Salter threw 15 passes and the ground game produced 339 yards. Liberty might have its first truly comfortable game of the season.

Bet Liberty -14.5

Virginia at No. 8 Notre Dame

Notre Dame -22.5 | Total: 50.5

The Cavaliers are 6-2-1 against the spread this season. After losing 3 SU games in a row to Louisville, Clemson, and North Carolina, they broke through last Saturday to win at Pitt 24-19. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has found a different gear of late, winning each of its last 4 games by an average of 37 points a game. Of course, those games have been against Stanford, Georgia Tech sans Haynes King, Navy, and Florida State. Navy gave the game away with 6 turnovers. Notre Dame hasn’t exactly had to work.

Virginia might change that, but that would require the Cavaliers to take better care of the football. They have 12 giveaways this season, including at least 1 in each of their last 3 games. Anthony Colandrea has thrown 8 picks and he has 10 turnover-worthy plays. No one has been able to move it much on this Notre Dame defense, and if Virginia starts turning the ball over, more of the same will happen for Notre Dame.

Bet Virginia team total under 13.5 points

No. 4 Penn State at Purdue

Penn State -28.5 | Total: 51

Using Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric, Purdue is the third-worst team in the FBS. The Boilermakers have lost 8 straight. In 3 games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame, they’ve been outscored 146-7. This is a very bad team. And Penn State has plenty of reasons to run it up on bad teams. With a loss to Ohio State, Penn State’s only hope of getting into the Big Ten Championship Game is for someone ahead of them to lose. But the Nittany Lions still control their fate with regard to the College Football Playoff. Style points will matter. Struggling against this Purdue team will be a knock on the résumé.

Bet Penn State -28

No. 21 LSU at Florida

LSU -4.5 | Total: 55

We all saw that Gator defense, right? PFF officially charged Gator defenders with 13 missed tackles. Tyreak Sapp and Jack Pyburn were the only starters who earned an overall defensive grade better than 62. Florida got run over, giving up 562 yards and 8.8 yards per play. Texas generated 10 explosive plays in the pass game — a 30.3% clip. Now the Gators face LSU in a bad spot. The Tigers were blown off the field last week at home by Alabama. It was an embarrassing performance in a game LSU absolutely needed to remain in the Playoff hunt. I’d imagine Brian Kelly will have his group believing they can force their way into the conversation with 9 wins, so I’m not sure motivation will be an issue. But more than anything, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has to be relieved about the upcoming matchup. He’s thrown 5 interceptions in his last 2 games. Florida got 3 picks off Kentucky and 3 off Georgia, but has just 3 total in its other 7 games this year. The Gators are mediocre against the pass and they’re just bad defending the run (86th in EPA per rushing attempt faced). LSU has desperately wanted to find some balance with the run to take some of the pressure off Nussmeier and this might be the game they get it.

Bet LSU team total over 30.5 

No. 24 Missouri at No. 23 South Carolina

South Carolina -12.5 | Total: 44.5

Almost defiantly, Eli Drinkwitz claimed his team was still in the College Football Playoff picture after beating Oklahoma 30-23. As an SEC team with a path to 10 wins, he’s not technically wrong. But nothing about this Mizzou squad looks worthy of a spot in the CFP. The Tigers followed up a 34-0 trouncing with a disgusting showing through 3 quarters against Oklahoma at home. This was a 10-9 game going into the fourth. Each team had a touchdown pass and a scoop-and-score in the final 3:18 of the game. Missouri won because Jackson Arnold, in the closing minute, dropped the football. Add that to the 3-point overtime win over Vanderbilt, the Brady Cook game against Auburn, and Missouri has shown once again it can find a way in close games.

The problem here is that Missouri is playing close games against bad or average competition and getting the doors blown off by good teams. The Tigers were outscored 75-10 by Texas A&M and Alabama. South Carolina outscored those same 2 teams 69-47 this season. The Gamecocks blasted Texas A&M just a few weeks ago. And they blew out Oklahoma. And they blew out Vanderbilt. Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are, in all reality, closer to the CFP than Missouri. And they have a clear edge when the defense takes the field against the Missouri offense. The South Carolina defense ranks seventh nationally in adjusted EPA per play. With 2 dynamic pass-rushers off the edge and one of the best cornerback pairings in the conference, the Gamecocks take away the dropback game. Neither Drew Pyne (78 career rushing yards) nor a hobbled Brady Cook is what you want against this SC front and Missouri’s recent inability to run the football (2.5 yards per carry against Auburn, 2.9 against Oklahoma) compounds the issue. If South Carolina can pin its ears back and rush the passer with impunity, it’ll be a long day.

Bet South Carolina -12.5

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No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin

Oregon -14.5 | Total: 52.5

This is a different Oregon team under Dan Lanning, who is a different kind of coach. The focus this team displays week in and week out is remarkable. The Ducks are No. 9 in net adjusted EPA per play and No. 6 in net success rate, per Game on Paper. The defense shined bright in a 39-18 win over Maryland last weekend to move the Ducks to 10-0 for the first time since 2012. Some of us have been waiting to see if Oregon would trip up, but even as games have unfolded in different ways, Oregon has continued to roll. The 21-point win over the Terps went down as an ATS loss and snapped a run of 4 straight wins against the spread for Dan Lanning’s group. But that was just the seventh ATS defeat of Lanning’s career as a favorite of 14 or more. The Ducks have been excellent in this spot, going 16-7 ATS in games where they are a favorite of 14 or more. Wisconsin, which has lost to Penn State and Iowa in back-to-back games by a combined 70-23, is not the team to end Oregon’s unbeaten run. And certainly not before the Ducks head into a bye week.

Bet Oregon -14.5

No. 6 Tennessee at No. 11 Georgia

Georgia -10 | Total: 48.5

As far as I can tell, Georgia is still being treated like it can just flip a switch and turn into one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the country. Nothing about the Bulldogs’ play this season gives any reason to suggest they are one of the best teams in the sport right now. They’re 43rd in net adjusted EPA per play, they’re 87th in turnover margin, and they’re 83rd in third down conversions. Georgia does not have the defense this year to be as ineffective as it has been on offense. It cost the Dawgs in the Alabama game. It made the Mississippi State game more uncomfortable than it should have been. It nearly cost the Dawgs in the Florida game. And it cost them dearly in the Ole Miss game. After taking a 7-0 lead over Ole Miss, Georgia’s next 4 drives went 3 plays, 5 yards, punt; 3 plays, 6 yards, punt; 9 plays, 30 yards, punt; and 5 plays, 23 yards, punt. Now it’ll face a Tennessee defense that ranks third nationally in success rate allowed. Georgia might win the game because the Bulldogs are backed into a corner, they’re at home, and a loss would keep them out of the CFP. But this Georgia team won’t outscore Tennessee by 10 points.

Bet Tennessee +10