We have massive games with College Football Playoff implications in Week 4. Don’t plan anything. Get your yard work done early. Make sure the fridge is well-stocked. From Friday night on through Saturday evening, the football promises to be fantastic. There are 4 games between ranked opponents this upcoming weekend, starting with a top-25 showdown in Lincoln between Nebraska and Illinois on Friday night. On Saturday, we’ll see a top-15 battle between Big 12 contenders in Stillwater and a top-15 battle between SEC heavyweights in Norman. The mid-day slot also features USC-Michigan in the Trojans’ first Big Ten conference game.

There’s plenty to look forward to. Here’s an early look at Week 4.

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (Fri., 8 p.m. ET, FOX)

Nebraska -9 | Total: 43.5 | Moneyline: Nebraska -310, Illinois +250

The matchup to watch here is between the Illinois secondary and Nebraska freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola. Kansas had a fair amount of success against Illinois just running between the tackles (4.8 yards per carry) and then hit a couple long runs off the edges. Nebraska will want to run it early, so you might see Illinois load up the box to try and dictate terms. The Illini rank 19th nationally in yards per dropback allowed this season, per game on paper, and they’ve already forced 6 interceptions in 3 games. Turnovers loomed large in the 6-point win over Kansas. The Jayhawks gave it away 4 times — once each quarter. One of Jalon Daniels’ 3 interceptions was returned for a touchdown at a point in the first half where Kansas had a lead.

Raiola has been safe with the football this season, only putting up 1 turnover-worthy throw in 80 attempts so far, per PFF. The vertical game has been there for Nebraska, and that presence has helped the Huskers to run the football and mostly stay ahead of the chains.

Getting this game at home is huge for Raiola specifically, but Illinois has been a bugaboo for Nebraska under Bret Bielema. In 2021, the final margin closed at 8 points but Illinois had a 30-9 lead late in the third. The Illini beat the Huskers in Lincoln 26-9 in 2022. Last year, Big Red got revenge with a 20-7 road win. In his career, Bielema is 4-2 against the Huskers.

Lean Illinois, bet Illinois at +9.5

Rice at Army (noon ET, CBS Sports Network)

Army -5 | Total: 42 | Moneyline: Army -198, Rice +164

Army has scored 66 points in its first 2 games of the season. The Black Nights notched a 42-7 win over Lehigh in their opener and then scored on a fake field goal to beat FAU 24-7. The Owls’ defensive profile doesn’t inspire much confidence in Rice’s ability to slow down Army, and the lack of any offensive rhythm through 3 games suggests a blowout.

Rice has struggled heavily to stay on the field. It has lost both games against FBS opponents by a combined 67-21. In those 2 games, Rice has gone 3-and-out on 14 of its 25 offensive possessions. They also have 4 turnovers in those games. Getting going has been the issue; Rice averaged 3.3 yards per play on first downs against Sam Houston State and then 2.1 yards per play on first down against Houston. They’ve been awful on third downs but they just haven’t been in good spots. Per college football insiders, Army is 39th nationally in early downs EPA. Rice hasn’t valued its offensive possessions to this point in the season, and it’s hard to see that changing against Army.

Bet Army -5

James Madison at North Carolina (noon ET, ACC Network)

North Carolina -10 | Total: 47.5 | Moneyline: North Carolina -395, James Madison +310

North Carolina has very little stability on offense right now. The Tar Heels opened the season with Max Johnson at quarterback, but an injury in the opener forced the staff to go to Conner Harrell. After just 2 drives against FCS NC Central last Saturday, the staff pulled Harrell for Jacolby Criswell. The Heels trailed 7-0 after 1 in the game, but scored 28 unanswered in the fourth to win going away. Mack Brown said after the game that both quarterbacks would get “a chance” and the hot hand would get run.

UNC is 3-0 on the season, but it is one of the weaker unbeatens in the country. Sagarin ratings have UNC sitting 57th nationally. The formula so far has been to lean heavily on Omarion Hampton’s awesomeness and on plenty of havoc creation from an aggressive defense.

James Madison has the defense to make Hampton work for it. The Dukes rank eighth in the country in rushing success rate allowed, per game on paper. And they’ve had an extra week to prepare. But stopping Hampton in practice is much tougher than in theory. Hampton ran for 210 yards and 3 scores on NC Central. James Madison hasn’t yet seen a back like him.

Bet over 47.5

NC State at No. 21 Clemson (noon ET, ABC)

Clemson -20.5 | Total: 48 | Moneyline: Clemson -1200, NC State +750

The bye week came at an interesting time for Clemson, which had just dropped 66 points on App State the week prior. Cade Klubnik played 1 half and threw for 378 yards while producing 7 total touchdowns. Clemson scored 35 points in the first quarter as things unraveled spectacularly quickly for the Mountaineers. Did Clemson find something within its offense? Or was App State just asleep at the wheel for a quarter and then dead in the water? Immediately heading into a bye week means we probably don’t have that answer yet. (App State, for what it’s worth, trailed 16-0 to East Carolina after 1 the following week.)

Last week, NC State moved from Grayson McCall to true freshman CJ Bailey at quarterback after McCall was knocked out of the game. Bailey threw an interception on his second drive of the game, but he helped NC State rally in the second half from a 17-6 deficit to win 30-20. Maybe there’s some newfound energy there for the Wolfpack.

Dave Doeren’s team hasn’t looked polished at any point this season. A lot of that had to do with the play of McCall, who just never quite looked right. Through his first 3 games, McCall had a Total QBR of 36.6 — the third-worst of any qualified ACC passer, and 7 points worse than DJ Uiagalelei.

These 2 teams in particular feel like major victims of early-season overreactions. NC State probably isn’t as bad as its start would suggest. Clemson was not as bad as its Week 1 loss suggested but it is also probably not as great as its Week 2 result showed. Klubnik threw 2 picks against a Tony Gibson defense in a 7-point loss last season.

This line moved multiple points on Monday, right around the time NC State confirmed that Bailey would have the starting job this week. The lookahead line at DraftKings was 12.5, then it opened at 15.5. Now it’s pushing 20. These 2 sides have played each other in each of the last 3 seasons and none of the games were decided by more than 10 points.

Bet NC State +20.5

No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

USC -6 | Total: 46.5 | Moneyline: USC -230, Michigan +190

Michigan is a team to fade in Week 4. The Wolverines will be moving to Alex Orji at quarterback, a decision that might have celebratory bells ringing in Ann Arbor simply because of how ineffective Davis Warren was, but might not result in an immediate fix for the offense. All of the questions about Orji’s ability to throw the football still exist. And U-M head coach Sherrone Moore had no update on Monday about the status of tight end Colston Loveland.

So far, USC has answered the bell under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. Communication is better and USC isn’t blowing nearly as many coverages as they were in previous years. Against LSU in the opener, the Trojans showed they could hang at the line of scrimmage with the proverbial big boys. LSU had a third-and-1 play in the fourth quarter that was just stone-walled at a crucial juncture in the game. USC then followed up that emotional win with a shutout performance at home.

The Trojans have had a bye week to prepare for Michigan, so you wouldn’t expect them to be caught off-guard by the insertion of Orji into the starting lineup. They saw the Michigan-Arkansas State game like we did. Expect Lynn to load the box and dare Michigan to beat USC with the pass.

Bet USC -6

Georgia Tech at No. 19 Louisville (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Louisville -10 | Total: 57.5 | Moneyline: Louisville -395, Georgia Tech +310

Per game on paper, Georgia Tech currently ranks 72nd in the country in yards per dropback allowed and 104th in passing success rate allowed. After stunning Florida State in Ireland to open the season, the Yellow Jacket secondary got lit up by Kyle McCord in the Syracuse game. McCord completed 32 of his 46 passes for 381 yards and 4 scores in that game, leading Syracuse to a 3-point win. Tech has handled its other 2 opponents so far, but Louisville will be the toughest test.

The Cardinals have scored 111 points in their first 2 games and they’ve done it with a balanced attack. Four different running backs have carried the ball at least 10 times and all of them are averaging north of 5 yards per carry. The ground game as a whole ranks second nationally with a 58.1% success rate, per game on paper. Quarterback Tyler Shough has looked great averaging 10.2 yards per pass attempt while completing 68% of his passes without an interception.

Freshness is also a potential factor here. This will be Georgia Tech’s fifth straight game. This will be Louisville’s third game. Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is 11-6 against the spread over his entire coaching career after a bye, and 8-4 since moving to the Power 5 level.

Bet Louisville -10.5

No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State (4 p.m. ET, FOX)

Utah -1.5 | Total: 52 | Moneyline: Utah -120, Oklahoma State +100

The 2 most important games of Week 4 take place in the state of Oklahoma. In the mid-day slot, FOX gets a battle with significant implications on the Big 12 title race and therefore on the top-4 picture in the College Football Playoff. In the evening, ABC will showcase Tennessee against Oklahoma in a test of SEC might.

I’m passing on both games given the current market. Specifically in Stillwater, there is just too much uncertainty around the quarterback spot with the Utes. Cam Rising did not play in Utah’s 38-21 win over Utah State due to a finger injury. He missed the entire 2023 season with a knee injury. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is as cagey as they come when it relates to divulging injury information. The Utes expressed public confidence early in 2023 that Rising would be available while he was nowhere close to a return. This injury isn’t believed to be serious, but it was a large enough issue to keep Rising out of the Week 3 game.

After missing so much time, you’d think the Utes would want to get their quarterback into a rhythm ahead of a massive road fixture. True freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson filled in for Rising in Week 3 and completed 20 of his 33 passes for 239 yards and 3 scores with 1 interception. The start was slow, but Wilson worked his way into a groove.

Oklahoma State has been a tough team to get a beat on. The Cowboys have one of football’s most experienced offensive lines and a former Doak Walker Award winner at tailback, yet they’re sitting 127th in rushing success rate. After a 45-10 win over Tulsa, Mike Gundy expressed frustration with the offense’s inability to adjust to what defenses have presented through the opening stretch of the season. Teams have loaded the box to stop Ollie Gordon II and Oklahoma State has run headstrong between the tackles. Outside success has been there, but OSU hasn’t gone to that well enough.

Utah is a concerning matchup on the line of scrimmage. The Utes have a top-15 havoc rate in the country. But I liked Utah better at the +3 number on DraftKings as of Sunday night. By Monday morning, a 4.5-point swing had occurred.

Wait for news on Rising; if indications are that he’ll be unavailable or limited, take Oklahoma State on the moneyline

Duke at Middle Tennessee (4 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Duke -14 | Total: 54 | Moneyline: Duke -485, Middle Tennessee +370

This has blowout written all over it. With Jonathan Brewer running the show for Manny Diaz in Durham, Duke has turned transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy loose. He has 122 pass attempts in 3 games, completing 64% of those for 801 yards and 8 scores. Murphy threw 43 times in the win over UConn on Saturday. Murphy has 8 big-time throws this season and only 3 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.

Against the Blue Raiders, he’ll see a defense that is dead last in the country defending the pass. MTSU ranks 134th in EPA per dropback allowed, 134th in passing success rate allowed, and 130th in yards per dropback allowed. In 2 games against FBS teams, the Blue Raiders have given up 101 points and 878 passing yards.

Bet Duke -14

No. 8 Miami at South Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Miami -17.5 | Total: 65 | Moneyline: Miami -800, South Florida +550

I’m not totally sold on South Florida. The Bulls had a positive showing against Alabama in Week 2 that led to questions about the Crimson Tide and some juice for USF coach Alex Golesh. But Alabama made a number of unforced errors in that game — fumbling on special teams, fumbling a snap exchange inside the USF 5 — and committed a concerning amount of penalties. The Tide were also missing both of their starting tackles. When 1 of those guys entered in the fourth quarter, Alabama started to run over USF.

Southern Miss turned the ball over 3 times in South Florida’s 49-24 win last weekend, too — all of them after taking a 14-0 lead.

Cam Ward has 1 turnover-worthy play in his 97 dropbacks so far this season. He has been excellent against the blitz, with an adjusted completion rate of 88.9%, per PFF. Miami has only lost 1 turnover all season and penalties have only been an issue against bad competition in recent weeks, so maybe focus is the larger concern there. (The Florida game saw the Canes flagged only twice.)

When Jalen Milroe looked deep against South Florida, he had success. I think the Bulls are going to struggle to keep pace with Miami.

Bet under 65

Georgia Southern at Ole Miss (7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

Ole Miss -35.5 | Total: 66.5 

The Rebels have been a buzzsaw through 3 weeks. Now, they have faced some poor teams but that trend isn’t changing in Week 4. Georgia Southern is tied for 105th in the country in passing success rate allowed. It ranks 121st in rushing success rate allowed. The Eagles gave up 280 yards on 31 pass attempts to Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen (while also giving up 371 yards on the ground) in Week 1. Against a bad Nevada team in Week 2, they were outgained 498-285 but managed a 20-17 win. And for a defense giving up gobs of yards, they aren’t doing enough in key spots to make up for it. They have one of the nation’s worst third-down defenses and have yet to get out of the red zone without allowing points. Teams have scored 8 touchdowns on 9 trips.

Bet Ole Miss -35.5