Week 5 was absolutely spectacular, and not just because of what happened in Tuscaloosa. Yes, we had a game for the ages between Alabama and Georgia. But we also had a pair of top-10 upsets, a near-upset of another top-10 team, and a number of other matchups involving ranked teams that were captivating. Week 6 doesn’t have the same kind of heavy hitters at the top of the slate but conference play is officially here.

Here’s an early look at the market in Week 6.

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon

Oregon -24 | Total: 52.5 | Moneyline: Oregon -2100, Michigan State +1100

Against FBS opponents this season, Michigan State is averaging 17.3 points a game with an adjusted EPA per play that ranks 125th out of 134 teams. The Spartans simply haven’t been able to get out of their own way, evident again on Saturday when they fumbled twice inside the red zone against Ohio State. Only Auburn and East Carolina have more giveaways this season, and now the Spartans are making a cross-country trip on a short week of prep to face an Oregon defense that has athletes everywhere. Chiles has 10 giveaways in his first 5 games as a starter. Oregon is just 1-3 against the spread this season, and I’m a little hesitant to back the Ducks as a 3-score favorite in a conference game with this low of a point total, but I do think points will be at more of a premium.

Lean under 52.5

No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M

Texas A&M -2 | Total: 48.5 | Moneyline: Texas A&M -130, Missouri +110

The Aggies are 1-4 against the spread this season. They’re in a little bit of quarterback limbo as Conner Weigman’s status continues to be a week-to-week thing. And they’re getting Missouri off a bye. Missouri is fourth nationally in net success rate, and you can get the Tigers as a road dog.

A&M made Arkansas pay for repeated mistakes in Week 5. After the game, coach Mike Elko said his program took a step. I’m a little hesitant to put too much stock in the win given just how volatile Arkansas has been. Missouri’s defense has been stout this season, arguably doing less with more, and they make opponents grind for their points. Offensively, the Tigers take excellent care of the football and run it as well as anyone.

There’s something to be said about the mettle of Eli Drinkwitz’s team and the culture within Missouri football. The struggled through their last 2 games, winning by 6 over Boston College and then by 3 over Vanderbilt in overtime. But Missouri was tested in September last season, too, and the Tigers were better for it. Missouri has won 7 straight games that were decided by 8 points or less.

Bet Missouri +2

Navy at Air Force

Navy -9.5 | Total: 34.5 | Moneyline: Navy -375, Air Force +295

Here’s an early Best Bet. Navy ranks 32nd nationally in net success rate and 12th in adjusted EPA per play. Air Force ranks 109th and 116th, respectively. Air Force can’t sustain itself offensively and Navy has a baller at quarterback who is helping to put points on the board in bunches. The Midshipmen have cleared the spread in their last 3 games against FBS competition by 53.5 points. Air Force, meanwhile, has yet to win a game against FBS competition and has scored just 29 total points in those games. Navy might be the best team in the AAC. Air Force is probably the worst team in the Mountain West.

Bet Navy -9.5

Pitt at North Carolina

Pitt -3 | Total: 64.5 | Moneyline: Pitt -142, North Carolina +120

North Carolina has seen nothing but negativity surrounding its program for 2 straight weeks. The Tar Heels were embarrassed in Week 4 when they gave up 70 points at home to James Madison, then left soul-searching in Week 5 after blowing a 20-0 lead to lose 21-20 at Duke. With speculation swirling about Mack Brown’s future, I wonder if this isn’t a spot to take advantage of perception.

Omarion Hampton isn’t putting up Ashton Jeanty numbers, but he has already produced 658 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns in 4.5 games. Since making the switch to quarterback Jacolby Criswell, North Carolina’s pass game has found life. Criswell has 726 yards and 5 touchdowns in his last 2. And the defense ranks 36th nationally in success rate allowed despite the JMU performance.

Pitt has feasted on 2 awful teams so far this season. The Panthers are in the top 25 in EPA per rushing attempt and rushing success rate, but shutting down Youngstown State and Kent State helps there. Cincinnati averaged 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and West Virginia averaged 4.7. In both games, Pitt had to mount fourth-quarter comebacks to win.

The pass defense for Pitt is a significant issue (122nd in EPA per dropback allowed). And Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein is flirting with disaster. He has 12 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions on the season. But Holstein also has 8 turnover-worthy plays (per PFF) and has been sacked 11 times. He’s a turnover waiting to happen. There’s a path to North Carolina winning this game and quieting the noise for at least a week. Establish the run with Hampton, set up the play-action game for Criswell, and pounce when Holstein throws a ball up for grabs.

Bet North Carolina +3

Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State

Ohio State -20 | Total: 44.5 | Moneyline: Ohio State -1650, Iowa +950

Iowa overs are 4-0 this season, with the Hawkeyes clearing 30 points in 3 of their 4 games. Tailback Kaleb Johnson has been a revelation, putting up 685 yards and 9 scores to start the season. But if Iowa has to throw the ball, it just won’t end well. The Hawkeyes are 125th nationally in yards per dropback. There’s no verticality in the pass game.

Asking the defense to hold against such a loaded Ohio State offense is asking too much. In the last 16 meetings between these 2 teams, Ohio State is 14-2 and winning by 2 scores on average. When these 2 sides met in 2022, Ohio State put 54 points on a defense that ended the season No. 1 in defensive efficiency.

Bet Ohio State -20.5

Related: Calling all Ohio residents. Bet on the action this weekend using this Ohio DraftKings promo code. 

Auburn at No. 5 Georgia

Georgia -24.5 | Total: 54 | Moneyline: Georgia -2800, Auburn +1300

At some point, the good things Auburn is doing have to matter on the scoreboard, right? In a 10-point loss to Arkansas, Auburn had a 93.3% postgame win probability according to Bill Connelly’s SP+. (That’s likely where that “9 out of 10” comment from Hugh Freeze that he got clowned over came from.) In a 6-point loss to Oklahoma, Auburn had a 75.3% postgame win probability. For whatever reason, Auburn is statistically defiant right now. In games against Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Cal, the Tigers turned the football over a combined 11 times. Their expected turnover value in those 3 games is 6.9.

Most of the country will expect Georgia to batter Auburn at home in this spot. The Bulldogs are coming off a game where they were, for the most part, embarrassed. They didn’t have an edge in the first half and were carved up by an explosive Alabama offense.

What happens if Auburn just has one game where the pendulum swings back the other way and it doesn’t give the football away like candy? If Auburn can build a cohesive gameplan around a pair of running backs who are averaging 6.7 and 6.6 yards per rushing attempt? Nothing about Georgia’s statistical profile on defense right now screams elite. The Dawgs rank 70th nationally in rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper. They were concerned about their interior run defense to a fault against Alabama, and the Crimson Tide shredded them on the edge.

On the other side, I don’t think the Bulldogs have the offense this season to race away from inferior teams the way they have in the past. Maybe this is a “get right” game for the Dawgs, but they feel like a team that is still trying to find themselves.

Lean Auburn +24.5 

Rutgers at Nebraska

Nebraska -7 | Total: 41 | Moneyline: Nebraska -265, Rutgers +215

Because of Indiana’s success, the Scarlet Knights’ 5-0 start has flown under the radar. Rutgers ranks No. 11 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric, and No. 9 in average win probability. The 3-point win over Washington is going to look a little flukey, but I’m not comfortable enough yet with Nebraska in tight games against quality opponents and Rutgers has now shown in back-to-back weeks it can close out a tight ball game in the fourth quarter. The record in 1-score games is what it is for the Huskers. Beating a bad Purdue team on the road doesn’t change that.

Lean Rutgers +7

No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas

Tennessee -13.5 | Total: 60 | Moneyline: Tennessee -600, Arkansas +440

The Tennessee defense is suffocating, as only 2 teams in the country have given up a lower percentage of 10-plus-yard plays than the Volunteers. Against Texas A&M, Arkansas gained 71% of its overall offensive yardage on 17% of its offensive plays. On the 58 non-explosive plays the Hogs ran, they gained 98 total yards. The same thing happened in the Auburn game, where Arkansas had 10 explosives and all other offensive plays averaged 2 yards per play.

Arkansas is so volatile right now because its offense is so all-or-nothing. The Razorbacks are hitting huge plays to tilt the field, or they’re going practically dormant. They’ve been outstanding on third downs this season (55%, fifth nationally) where quarterback Taylen Green’s dual-threat ability has shined, but you can’t live on third against a team like Tennessee. Between the turnovers and the reliance on explosives to move the ball, Arkansas could run into a wall against the Volunteers.

I have this game around 55 total points. I don’t think Arkansas can keep pace. The ends for Texas A&M wreaked havoc on Arkansas last weekend, and now the Hogs have to try and stop James Pearce Jr. and Dominic Bailey.

Bet under 60

Nevada at San Jose State

San Jose State -7 | Total: 48.5 | Moneyline: San Jose State -278, Nevada +225

Nevada ranks 106th nationally in EPA per dropback faced. San Jose State quarterback Emmett Brown is going to throw all over the Wolf Pack. He has 13 big-time throws this season, per PFF, and his average depth of target is 13 yards downfield. The Spartans have an outstanding receiver in Nick Nash, a 6-foot-3 super-senior who is currently tied for second in the country in contested catches. As a unit, the Spartans’ rank as one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. Per Game on Paper, they’re 17th nationally in passing success rate and 15th in EPA per dropback.

If this game turns into one where Nevada quarterback Brendon Lewis has to lead touchdown drives through the air to keep pace, Nevada is going to struggle. Lewis had a QBR of 18.1 in the team’s loss to Minnesota a few weeks ago, when he was picked off 3 times and sacked 4 times. He’s only topped 200 yards through the air once in 5 games.

Bet San Jose State -7

USC at Minnesota

USC -8.5 | Total 51.5 | Moneyline: USC -340, Minnesota +270

Over the course of his career, Lincoln Riley is 7-18-1 against the spread as a road favorite. He’s 2-6 as a road favorite since coming to USC. Riley’s teams just haven’t fared well in these spots historically. Against the Gophers, the trend could continue.

If Minnesota can keep itself close, it’ll be because of its defense and its run game. The Gophers rank first in the country in EPA per dropback allowed, per Game on Paper. In 5 games, they’ve only given up 1 touchdown while picking off 8 passes.

Of course, Miller Moss will be the best passer Minnesota has faced thus far. The Gophers have seen Nevada, Iowa, and Michigan in recent weeks. But neither of their last 2 opponents topped 100 yards through the air. And Michigan was the first team all season to score on its opening drive against Minnesota.

Darius Taylor has to get going. He had 34 yards on 10 carries against Iowa, and then just 36 yards on 13 carries against Michigan. Remove the 80-yarder he busted against Nevada and he produced only 44 yards on 10 carries in that game. A year ago, Taylor averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the ground. Maybe he’s still working back into form after missing the first game of the season with an injury. USC ranks 50th in rushing success rate allowed, which will feel like a break after having to face the Michigan and Iowa fronts. Michigan had tremendous success running between the tackles against USC a few weeks ago. If Minnesota can replicate that, it can make USC sweat this game out.

Bet Minnesota +8.5