Betting Stuff: Opening thoughts on 10 opening lines for Week 7
The weekend of Oct. 12 was the weekend that has been highlighted since the schedules were finalized for this season. Red River. Oregon-Ohio State. Ole Miss-LSU. Florida-Tennessee. Penn State-USC. Ball State-Kent State. The weekend is loaded from start to finish with can’t-miss football.
And then the week before this monster weekend we get absolute carnage across the sport. Six ranked teams lost to unranked teams. Five of the top 11 teams lost games, and a sixth had to rally from 25 down to avoid a loss.
If there’s a week that could possibly top that, it would be this one we have coming up.
Here’s an early look at the market in Week 7, and our résumé so far.
- Last week: 4-3
- 2024 season: 29-24-1
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama
Alabama -22 | Total: 51
Alabama has some defensive issues right now. In the second half against Georgia, the Crimson Tide gave up 7.6 yards per play, 7 explosives, and 27 points. Throughout 4 quarters against Vandy, Alabama gave up 9 more explosives and 40 points. The defense just consistently lost receivers in the second half of the Georgia game, and it could not get off the field at all in the Vanderbilt game. The growing pains of moving to a different defensive scheme, replacing a ton of key defensive faces, and losing one of the greatest defensive coaches of a generation have been felt.
Alabama scored 35 points and put up 396 yards in just 46 plays against the Commodores. In a way, it was one of the Crimson Tide’s more efficient offensive games. The Tide just never had the football — 17 minutes of possession. South Carolina will provide more defensive might, but no one has stopped this offense through the first 6 weeks of the season.
The question is whether South Carolina (102nd nationally in offensive success rate) can sustain itself enough to hurt the Tide. Vanderbilt’s offensive scheme and plan for this game were such that they were perfect fits to leverage against an aggressive-minded defense. The option elements punished Alabama. Carolina might try to do some of the same things, but the Pavia element can’t be ignored. LaNorris Sellers is not Diego Pavia. The Vandy QB ranks 20th in EPA and has the 18th-best QBR. Sellers ranks 110th and 96th respectively. Vanderbilt has an offensive identity with Pavia at the heart of it. South Carolina still feels like an offense that is trying to figure out what to lean on.
Lean Alabama -22
Washington at Iowa
Iowa -2.5 | Total: 41
Iowa overs are 4-1 this season thanks in large part to the emergence of tailback Kaleb Johnson. (The Ohio State game missed by 5 points.) If the smurf turf monster in Boise wasn’t going bonkers, the country would be hearing much more about Johnson, who has 771 yards and 10 touchdowns on 97 carries this season. He’s averaging 8 yards per rushing attempt, has gone over 100 yards in 4 of his 5 appearances, and has scored multiple touchdowns on the ground in every game but the Ohio State one. Johnson has 14 carries of at least 20 yards this season, which leads the country. He has also forced 35 missed tackles, which ranks sixth.
Washington also has an elite tailback. Jonah Coleman leads the nation in carries of at least 10 yards (24) and ranks fourth nationally with 37 forced missed tackles. UW has been a little more reluctant to lean on Coleman, though, as he hasn’t registered more than 18 rushing attempts in a game all year. Unders are 5-1 this season thanks to a really good defense and an offense that has consistently tripped itself up in the red zone.
Iowa will press Washington’s weak point when it has the ball. Johnson should be able to hit some big runs on the UW defense. And I think the Hawkeyes will be able to dictate terms a little bit. Conversely, Iowa does not allow chunks on the ground and it’ll make UW work for every inch.
This one depends on the number you get. I think this is a 23-20 kind of game. At 41, I’m taking the over.
Bet over 41 points
UAB at Army
Army -24 | Total: 56
UAB is bad. Super bad. Exceptionally bad. Like, “Are they trying to get Trent Dilfer fired?” bad. The Blazers have lost 3 of 4 against the spread against FBS competition, and the last 2 weeks haven’t been close. Navy beat the number by 18.5. Tulane beat the number by 31.5 points.
Because of the 71 points the Blazers just gave up, you are paying a bit of a premium on this spread. Navy won its game in Week 5 41-18. There’s room for cautious optimism here, though.
Army is 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, and beating the number by an average of 19.5 points per game against FBS competition this season. The Black Knights have been awesome.
Army doesn’t blow you away defensively, but the Black Knights are one of the most efficient teams in the country on offense. They’re second nationally in offensive success rate. UAB struggles heavily to win on early downs and does not defend the run. The Black Knights are going to be able to decide the margin in this one.
Bet Army -24
No. 4 Penn State at USC
Penn State -4.5 | Total: 48
This is another one where the number you get is going to matter big time. The look-ahead line on DraftKings was Penn State -3. It opened at Penn State -4.5 on Sunday. As of Monday afternoon, it had been pushed to Penn State -5.5. There’s a breaking point here. If this gets above 6, I’m passing.
The defensive line for Penn State is going to test USC’s front, which had major issues holding up against Michigan several weeks ago. The Nittany Lions flashed in Week 5 when they sacked Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer 7 times. USC has to win the early downs. Miller Moss has been getting the football out quickly (2.47-second average time to throw) and accurately (73.9% adjusted completion), and I’d expect Lincoln Riley to use a quick game to try and neutralize Penn State’s athletes on defense.
It’s just hard to trust the Penn State offense to really blow the doors off anyone right now. The Nittany Lions could have beaten Illinois by more than just 14 but missed 2 field goals and turned it over on downs inside the red zone. They only ran 54 plays against UCLA and ended 2 of their 4 red zone trips with field goals.
Bet Penn State -4.5
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma
Texas -14.5 | Total: 49
This is a pretty easy over. Red River is unpredictable in a lot of ways, but it is almost always a scoring frenzy. The last 8 regular-season meetings:
- 2023: 34-30 Oklahoma
- 2022: 49-0 Texas
- 2021: 55-48 Oklahoma
- 2020: 53-45 Oklahoma
- 2019: 34-27 Oklahoma
- 2018: 48-45 Texas
- 2017: 29-24 Oklahoma
- 2016:45-40 Oklahoma
The 2022 and 2015 games are the only meetings in the last decade that produced fewer than 50 combined points. It doesn’t matter what the defenses look like prior. It doesn’t matter how the offenses are playing. Throw everything you think you know about the 2 teams out the window and settle in for a wild 3-plus hours at the Cotton Bowl.
Bet over 49 points
Florida at No. 8 Tennessee
Tennessee -15.5 | Total: 54
Does Josh Heupel take the kid gloves off of Nico Iamaleava and let him cook a little?
One of the more interesting storylines throughout the start of SEC play has been the decision by Heupel to lean heavily on his defense rather than turn his second-year quarterback loose. Iamaleava wasn’t asked to win the game at Oklahoma, and the Vols elected not to put the proverbial foot on OU’s throat in the second half. Against Arkansas, 25 of Iamaleava’s 29 pass attempts were within 19 yards of the line of scrimmage. After the 14-3 lead was cut to 4 points late in the third, Tennessee took over and, rather than try to snatch momentum back, the Vols went run, run, run, sack, run, punt. After the game, Heupel said he needs to be better as a play-caller. Iamaleava is still developing as a passer, but we’ve seen him showcase the ability to hit just about every shot on the field.
At home, against a Florida defense that ranks 86th nationally in EPA allowed per dropback, does Heupel let Iamaleava off the chain? Tennessee scored 191 points in its first 3 games. Tennessee has scored 39 points in the 2 games since.
Florida has already given up 23 pass plays this season that produced at least 20 yards for the opposing offense. There are only 5 FBS teams who have allowed more. (And 3 of them have played an extra game.) There’s a clear advantage here for Tennessee to press the issue. I just don’t know if Heupel will. And if he doesn’t, I think Florida could cover this number.
Lean Florida +15.5
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Ohio State -3.5 | Total: 52.5
The Game Out West. The Big One. Two weeks after Alabama hosted Georgia, we have another contender for “Game of the Year.” I had Oregon ahead of Ohio State to begin the season, which looked a little foolish after the Ducks struggled with Idaho in their opener. That game led a great number of people to bail on Oregon.
In the 4 games since, the Ducks have beaten arguably the best G5 team in the country, demolished Oregon state, handled UCLA on the road, and handled Michigan State at home. That the Ducks are only a 3.5-point dog, I think, suggests the public has settled nicely back into the “Oregon is pretty great” camp.
The opening weeks of the season saw Oregon shuffling on the offensive line and trying to find a mix that worked. The Ducks have a 5-man group now that clearly works. Since Week 3, Nishad Strother has been the starting right guard, Iapani Laloulu has been the starting center, and Oregon has averaged 7 yards per play and 5.8 yards per rushing attempt while allowing only 10 tackles for loss and 0 sacks. Josh Conerly Jr. is playing like the draftable talent he is at tackle, Jordan James is working into a serious rhythm, and Oregon is morphing into the dangerous team we all thought it could be.
It’s true on both sides: this will be the first test of the season. Ohio State hasn’t played anyone. Oregon can puff its chest a bit over the Boise result, but the Ducks haven’t faced a team with close to the same talent and athleticism Ohio State has.
If the Buckeyes are vulnerable anywhere, this will be the game that exposes the issue. We have 2 excellent coaching staffs and 2 teams brimming with athletes. Autzen Stadium provides the Ducks an advantage, and I think that’s the direction to lean when the line is at 3.5.
Lean Oregon +3.5
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU
Ole Miss -3 | Total: 64
The Rebels are No. 2 in the country in net success rate. They rank 15th nationally in EPA allowed per dropback. They rank No. 3 in rushing success rate allowed. They lead the country in sacks, with 24 through 6 games. Jared Ivey, Suntarine Perkins, Princely Umanmielen, Chris Paul Jr., and Walter Nolan are all taking turns terrorizing opposing offensive lines. There are only 6 teams in the country that have yet to give up multiple rushing scores, and Ole Miss is one of them. There are only 9 teams in the country that have yet to allow more than 2 passing touchdowns, and Ole Miss is one of them. This defense that Lane Kiffin has constructed is elite.
Well. Hold on.
To this point, Ole Miss has faced only 1 top-50 offense, as rated by Bill Connelly’s SP+. That was Kentucky. And the Rebels lost that game.
Nothing the Rebels have faced thus far holds a candle to the offense it will encounter in Death Valley on Saturday. LSU has the No. 3 offense in the country, per SP+. It is spearheaded by LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who went into the Tigers’ bye week among the nation’s leaders in EPA. Nussmeier has thrown for at least 300 yards in 4 of his 5 games so far and has posted QBRs north of 82 in 4 of 5 games. (South Carolina’s defense is quality.)
This, more than anything we’ve seen through the first 6 weeks, will tell us how different Lane Kiffin’s 2024 Ole Miss team is from his past teams. Can the Ole Miss defense get Nussmeier off his spots and get off the field in a hostile environment? I’m not sure this LSU defense can generate enough stops when Ole Miss has the ball. If the defense can slow Nussmeier, Ole Miss can make a statement.
Bet Ole Miss -3
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Kentucky -13.5 | Total: 46
Styles make fights. The Vanderbilt style is what set the scene for Saturday’s epic upset. The Kentucky style is what set the scene for the Wildcats’ upset win in Oxford a few weekends ago. Here we have 2 teams that know exactly who they are and exactly how they need to play to win.
Kentucky wants to shorten the game. After running only 56 plays against Alabama, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will short out the way Ole Miss did when the opportunities are limited. Yes, the Vandy defense got shredded by Alabama, but Kentucky’s offense just doesn’t threaten the same way.
Clark Lea’s group is 4-1 against the spread this season. I’m not sure Vegas has a firm grasp of who they are yet. Though to be fair, the qualities that make quarterback Diego Pavia special are hard to quantify. He’s a gamer. He proved it against Virginia Tech, then again against Missouri, then again against Alabama.
All of Vanderbilt’s FBS-on-FBS games this season have been decided by 7 points or less. Is Kentucky — 112th in yards per play, 106th in scoring — going to be the first team to blow the ‘Dores out?
Bet Vanderbilt +13.5
Syracuse at NC State
Syracuse -4.5 | Total: 54.5
NC State is giving up 33.7 points per game this season. It just gave up 34 to an average Wake Forest team. It gave up 59 to Clemson a few weeks ago. I think the Wolfpack are going to struggle to get off the field against Syracuse.
Quarterback Kyle McCord is fourth among all FBS passers in EPA. He’s already thrown for 1,814 yards and 17 touchdowns. He has interceptions in 4 of his 5 appearances, but he has also thrown 4 touchdown passes in a game 3 times and gone over 330 yards in all 5 games.
Syracuse is fun. NC State is bad. I have the Orange winning by 10 in a game with a ton of scoring.
Bet Syracuse -4.5