We have 5 games this week between ranked teams. Four more ranked teams are going on the road to face unranked opponents. We don’t have a massive headliner like Ohio State-Oregon or Texas-Georgia, but there are plenty more opportunities for chaos in Week 9. I like a handful of underdogs this week, a couple of whom might just win outright. Here’s what I’m paying attention to in Week 9.

  • Last week: 6-3
  • 2024 season: 39-30-1

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

Syracuse at No. 19 Pitt

Pitt -5.5 | Total: 61.5

I’d bet this game at 7.5, but I’m not quite there at 5.5. I’m still having a hard time fully buying into Pitt’s 6-0 start. Pitt ranks 47th in ESPN’s game control metric and 39th in average postgame win probability. Throw out the Kent State and Youngstown State data points that provide absolutely nothing; Pitt has struggled to separate from every other opponent. It needed fourth-quarter comebacks to beat Cincinnati and West Virginia. It went to the fourth with North Carolina tied. It beat an exhausted and short-handed Cal team by 2.

Pat Narduzzi is 12-5 off a bye week during his Pitt tenure, and the Panthers will have a major advantage going against the Syracuse run defense. Pitt is outstanding on early downs (90th percentile in EPA, per Game on Paper). It just doesn’t get run plays stuffed. The Panthers are in the 82nd percentile for opportunity rate, 86th percentile for stuff rate, and 97th percentile for rushing EPA per play. Syracuse is pretty pedestrian defending the run and is a below-average tackling team.

But Pitt is also extremely poor defending the pass, and that’s where Syracuse excels. Kyle McCord is fifth among quarterbacks in EPA through 6 games. He’s been north of 300 yards passing in every game this season and has 4 games with at least 3 touchdown passes. Pitt ranks 120th in EPA per dropback allowed. The Syracuse offense ranks 11th in that same category. McCord should be able to toss the ball around the yard in this Thursday night matchup.

Lean Syracuse +5.5

Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State

Ohio State -25.5 | Total: 48.5

Did Nebraska get caught looking ahead to Ohio State? Husker head coach Matt Rhule said he had no clue where last weekend’s 56-7 loss at Indiana came from. It would be strange for a team going on the road to face a ranked, unbeaten opponent to have its mind elsewhere, but I’m having a hard time figuring out how else to explain that defensive performance. Nebraska entered Week 8 as the only team in the country that had not allowed a rushing touchdown all season. Indiana ran for 215 yards and 5 scores on the Blackshirts. Dylan Raiola was picked off 3 times in the game, but the defense failed before Raiola started turning the football over.

Now Raiola has to go to Columbus and play an Ohio State team coming off a loss. He could be walking into a hornet’s nest. That aspect of this game is frightening because if Nebraska starts giving Ohio State short fields to work with, the Buckeyes are going to roll. But I think there’s a little value here in backing a strong unit in a bounceback spot to show some fight. The lookahead line for this game was 21 points.

Bet Nebraska +25.5

Oklahoma at No. 18 Ole Miss

Ole Miss -20.5 | Total: 48

This will be the first of 2 spots this week where I’m backing teams that have made a coordinator change. The Sooners fired Seth Littrell after 7 games and coach Brent Venables handed sole possession of the offensive coordinator title to Joe Jon Finley. After a 35-9 home loss to South Carolina, Venables was backed into a corner. He had to make a change.

And I’m looking for the offense, led by Jackson Arnold once again, to see a little bit of a jolt in energy because of it. Sometimes these coordinator changes lead to an immediate spark. Sometimes. Arnold threw for 225 yards and a touchdown on the Gamecocks in his return to the lineup last week. If you remove the 21 points OU spotted South Carolina in the first 5 minutes and 20 seconds, it was a 14-9 game. Oklahoma’s defense once again showed some fight.

Maybe Oklahoma plays looser. Maybe Oklahoma doesn’t give 2 touchdowns to the opposing defense on its first 9 plays from scrimmage. Maybe Deion Burks is able to get back on the field. (Venables said he was 80% last week; he has missed 3 games with a soft-tissue injury.) It’s possible this game ends up looking like the one Ole Miss played against South Carolina. But I wouldn’t rule out Oklahoma finding some offensive juice.

Bet Oklahoma +20.5

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy (MetLife Stadium)

Notre Dame -11.5  | Total: 52.5

Notre Dame ranks ninth in Game on Paper’s net adjusted EPA-per-play metric. Navy ranks seventh. This will be the first test of the season for the unbeaten Midshipmen. To this point, Memphis (59th) is the only FBS opponent Navy has faced that ranks higher than 119th in SP+. Notre Dame is eighth.

There’s something to be said about having to randomly prepare for the triple-option on the fly, but Notre Dame also hasn’t struggled in this matchup. The Irish won 42-3 last year, 34-6 in 2021, 52-20 in 2019, and 44-22 in 2018. Notre Dame has won 6 straight overall.

This will be a massive step up in class for the Middies, who have only played awful teams to date. Yes, Navy beat Charlotte 51-17 last week. But 2 of those scores were long interception returns from the defense and the offense only produced 288 total yards. The offense has been trending down since beating Memphis, and it averaged only 5.2 yards per play against Charlotte last week. Meanwhile, the defense has given up more than 5 yards per play in 3 of the last 4. That’s a concerning sign.

My numbers tell me to back Notre Dame here. While Navy won’t be caught in a bind defending a mobile quarterback the way some other teams can be, the run defense in general leaves a bit to be desired and that’s where Notre Dame butters its bread.

Bet Notre Dame -11.5

Washington at No. 13 Indiana

Indiana -6.5 | Total: 53

This is a dangerous spot for the Hoosiers, who are coming off a massive victory over Nebraska last week. The eyes of the entire sport were on Bloomington, and Indiana played like it wanted to put on a show. IU kept the hammer down all game, even after quarterback Kurtis Rourke exited with a hand injury.

The school said Sunday that injury will keep him out fo an indefinite period of time. He is expected to miss the game against the Huskies. While Tayven Jackson fared admirably in relief, he’s not Rourke. I had Rourke on my Heisman shortlist, and I thought he showed why in the first half against Nebraska, dropping dimes all over the field.

Washington’s defense does well against the pass and running back Jonah Coleman is one of the hardest in the country to bring down. UW will be coming off a bye week. Indiana might be a little emotionally drained. This is an upset spot.

Bet Washington +6.5

No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon

Oregon -21.5 | Total: 54.5

How does Oregon handle the pressure as the new AP No. 1? The Ducks ascended to the top spot in the AP poll on Saturday for the first time since 2012. The last time Oregon jumped from 2 to 1, it lost 17-14 at home to a then-No. 14 Stanford team.

This presents an interesting matchup.

The 6-1 Illini are getting a ton of love for what looks to be an overinflated resume. Kansas was a ranked win at the time, but it turns out the Jayhawks are just bad. Michigan was (inexplicably) another ranked win, but the Wolverines’ reality hasn’t matched perception at any point this season. Illinois was thoroughly handled by Penn State. It almost blew a lead to Purdue at home. And Michigan actually had a better success rate in the 21-7 loss. Per Game on Paper, Illinois ranks 64th in net adjusted EPA per play.

Oregon is 11th. The Ducks solved their red zone issues last week at Purdue, going 5-for-5 with touchdowns inside the 20s. Dillon Gabriel threw another interception, but Oregon was never really threatened by the Boilermakers. The defense stood up, with 10 tackles in the Purdue backfield and 2 takeaways.

The Ducks are significantly more talented. They’re the home team.  And Dan Lanning is 9-3 when favored by 21 points or more. If this gets below 20, I’m jumping on it.

Lean Oregon at -21.5

No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama

Alabama -13.5 | Total: 56

A battle between 2 disappointments. Missouri looks mighty fraudulent. Alabama has a massive problem on its hands. Between healthy rosters, there’s no reason to trust Alabama to win by 14 points right now. Especially against a Missouri team that does really well against the run and limits the chunk plays. The Alabama offensive line just isn’t getting any push and quarterback Jalen Milroe is struggling to see the whole picture as it unfolds in front of him. The problem is that Missouri has a massive question mark at quarterback after Brady Cook exited Saturday’s come-from-behind win over Auburn and was briefly taken to a hospital for further evaluation during the game. Does anything linger with the ankle? Is Cook a sack away from reaggravating the injury and plunging Missouri into trouble on the road? For that reason, I’m inclined to stay away from this game. We’ll see what Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz says about his quarterback (and running back) in the days ahead. If Cook pops up on the availability report Wednesday night, I’ll be curious to see what the designation is.

Rice at UConn

UConn -6.5 | Total: 46.5

After a red-hot run throughout the month of September, the Huskies have cooled significantly in their last 2 games. They beat Temple by 9 as a 17.5-point favorite. Then lost to Wake Forest last Saturday by 3 as a 2.5-point dog. During their run of 4 straight ATS routs, UConn turned to the ground game and just bulldozed teams. From Sept. 7-28, the Huskies averaged 283.8 rushing yards a game and 6 yards per carry. In the 2 games since, the ground game has completely collapsed, totaling just 139 combined yards at 2.1 per carry.

Here comes Rice, to help make things a little bit rosier in East Hartford. The Owls (2-5) are among the worst in the country defending the run. They don’t stuff anything and they give up a ton of explosives.

Bet UConn -6.5

No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt

Texas -18 | Total: 53.5

Just as a rule of thumb, I’m taking Vanderbilt as a dog of 2 or more scores and fading Vanderbilt as a favorite of 2 or more scores whenever I can get either this season. The ‘Dores are 4-0 against the spread when they’re at least a 13-point dog, including 3 outright victories. They’re 1-2 against the spread when favored. They have not played a single game against another FBS opponent that has been decided by more than 10 points. Given the way Vanderbilt plays, games are going to be short and tight no matter what.

How does Texas get off the mat after getting its tail whipped at home by Georgia? The biggest issue in the Longhorns’ 30-15 loss last Saturday was their complete inability to block Georgia’s defensive front. The Bulldogs got pressure with 4-man looks. Texas right tackle Cameron Williams was abused. Georgia looked more athletic, which wasn’t necessarily startling, but it was surprising given how little we’d seen from the Dawgs’ pass rush through their first 6 games.

Vanderbilt doesn’t have anyone who can do the things Jalon Walker does. But no one has Vandy quarterback Diego Pavia. And that veer has given every single team fits.

Bet Vanderbilt +18

Utah at Houston

Utah -3.5 | Total: 37

The second spot where I’m backing a team off a coordinator change. After a third straight loss, Utah announced that longtime offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig had stepped down. In those 3 losses, the Utes’ offense managed only 36 combined points with 6 turnovers. Things came to a head in a 13-7 home loss to TCU where, without Cam Rising again, Utah managed only 68 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per play.

Ludwig’s pro-style offense has oft been criticized for being too much to digest. Without Rising to lead the team over the last year and a half, backup quarterbacks have struggled heavily to find consistency within the scheme. Utah has talent around freshman Isaac Wilson. Brant Kuithe and Dorian Singer are reliable targets in the pass game. Micah Bernard is a veteran tailback who can help in both phases. I’m looking for Utah to simplify and let the talent shine.

Houston’s offense might be even worse, which will give the Utes some margin to work with. The Cougars have been blanked twice already this season and outscored 115-44 in 4 conference games. Their quarterbacks threw 4 picks in last week’s loss to Kansas — the third time in the last 4 games Houston has had at least 3 giveaways.

Bet Utah -3.5