It’s a super-sized week of college football, and I couldn’t trim down to just 10 games that were worth covering, so this column will just be super-sized for the final week of the regular season. (Given the performance the last 2 weeks, maybe that’s a bad thing.)

Entering the final week, the College Football Playoff is still very much in flux as every single power conference championship game is still to be determined. Oregon has clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. SMU has clinched a spot in the ACC game. And Georgia has clinched its spot in the SEC title game. But three other teams are still alive in the Big Ten. Two teams are vying for the last spot in the ACC. The Texas-Texas A&M game determines the other spot in the SEC. And then there’s the Big 12, where the league says 9 (nine!) teams are still in contention for the title game.

The G5 spot also could get interesting. Thursday night, Tulane (9-2) faces Memphis (9-2) in a potential trap spot. The Green Wave are already through to the AAC title game and, with some help, might still be in play for the CFP. That goes out the window if they lose to Memphis. On the other side of the country, Boise State faces an Oregon State team that just knocked off Washington State.

On the heels of a bloody Saturday, we’re in store for a do-or-die weekend of college football.

Here’s what I’m paying attention to in Week 14.

  • Last week: 3-4
  • 2024 season: 60-52-1

(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

Memphis at Tulane

Tulane -14 | Total: 55.5

This could be a trap game for Tulane. The Green Wave are already locked into the AAC Championship Game regardless of what happens on Thursday night. But, the AAC title game matters to Tulane because of the carrot on the end of the stick — the potential CFP bid. To get it, Tulane has to be ranked above Boise State (assuming the Broncos win the Mountain West). That means style points matter over the next 2 weeks. That means not just beating Memphis, but making it convincing. The Tigers, 9-2 on the season, are a must-have for a Tulane résumé that is short on noteworthy wins.

Tulane’s 8-game winning streak has seen only 2 opponents that currently rank ahead of Memphis (69th) in FEI — Louisiana and Navy. Five of the 8 wins came against teams that currently rank 90th or worse in FEI. The Louisiana game — an 8-point win on the road — featured a 38-yard pick-6 and a 94-yard kickoff return for touchdown for Tulane. The Navy game — a 35-0 blasting — saw the Midshipmen lose their starting quarterback early and turn it over twice en route to a third loss in 4 games.

The Memphis defense is hopeless in trying to stop explosive plays, so any hope to win this game rests with the offense matching Tulane.  Quarterback Seth Henigan leads all Group of 5 quarterbacks with 28 big-time throws. And he has the sixth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate among G5 quarterbacks (min. 200 dropbacks). Memphis has the horses to keep pace with Tulane.

Bet Memphis +14

Oregon State at Boise State

Boise State -20.5 | Total: 56.5

Oregon State is fresh off a 41-38 win over Washington State that snapped a 5-game losing streak. During that skid, Oregon State’s defense gave up 353 rushing yards to Nevada, 188 rushing yards to UNLV, and 270 rushing yards to Air Force. To put it kindly, the Beaver run defense is broken. It ranks 129th nationally in EPA per run faced and 130th in rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper. Boise State has a guy named Ashton Jeanty who would probably like to win the Heisman Trophy. He leads a rushing attack for Boise that ranks third in EPA per run. And if Boise State loads up the box to try and limit Jeanty’s damage, a porous secondary is exposed for a quarterback in Maddux Madsen who has excelled in the play-action game this season. Oregon State will be fighting for its bowl eligibility and it’ll have to win a shootout to get there; the Beavers don’t look equipped to stop this Boise offense.

Bet over 56.5 total points

Mississippi State at Ole Miss

Ole Miss -26 | Total: 61.5

How exactly does Ole Miss bounce back from the Florida loss? The entire offseason was built around 1 game. The Rebels circled the Georgia game and, all year, talked about that game as the one that would define their growth. They knew if they could win that game, they could achieve their larger team goals. And when Ole Miss blew the Bulldogs out, they looked like a team that could actually do damage in the College Football Playoff. A loss to Florida last week makes the Georgia win meaningless. The Rebels aren’t going to the CFP. That dream died in The Swamp. And it died in rather disastrous fashion. Jaxson Dart threw the game away at the end. The Rebels turn around and play a rivalry game against a Mississippi State team that has been much more competitive of late. The Bulldogs are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7. They are 4-0 ATS this season when listed as more than a 20-point underdog.

Bet Mississippi State +26

Georgia Tech at Georgia

Georgia -19.5 | Total: 54

Georgia is 3-8 against the spread this season. Since the Clemson game, it is 0-6 as a favorite of 10 points or more. Under Brent Key, Georgia Tech has covered back-to-back spreads against the Bulldogs. And this is his best team yet. The Yellow Jacket defense has more than held its own on the line this season, ranking in the 87th percentile for line yards allowed and the 99th percentile for stuff rate. They generate a ton of havoc on defense and hit explosive plays on offense. Georgia’s run defense is leaky, at best. It just gave up 226 yards to a one-dimensional UMass team. The Jackets will be competitive at the line of scrimmage.

Bet Georgia Tech +19.5

Michigan at Ohio State

Ohio State -21 | Total: 43

Thoughts and prayers to the Wolverines this week. I fear there is no way to prepare for the hostility that will await Michigan when it walks into Buckeye Stadium on Saturday. Michigan has won 3 straight in the series and that’s all anyone in Columbus has cared about all year. Ryan Day can’t lose a fourth. He knows that. Ohio State should have a psychological edge. And that’s concerning because the Buckeyes have a massive advantage on the field. Michigan doesn’t have a corner to slow down Jeremiah Smith. With first-round NFL talent on the interior of the defensive line, Michigan ranks 72nd nationally in EPA per run faced. The Wolverines are in the 28th percentile for line yards allowed and the 24th percentile for stuff rate. They also don’t have the tools to take advantage of Ohio State’s defensive weakness (its corners). In the Indiana game, the Buckeyes held one of the nation’s most prolific offenses to 68 yards through the air and 85 yards on the ground. Prior to the game against the Buckeyes, Indiana was averaging 6.9 yards per play. Against the Buckeyes, Indiana averaged 2.6 yards per play. We saw what an angry, motivated Ohio State team could look like. And that was probably only a taste of what will come this week.

Bet Ohio State -21

South Carolina at Clemson

Clemson -2.5 | Total: 49

The wrong team is favored here. The way these 2 teams are playing right now, I’d have South Carolina by 3 points over Clemson on a neutral field. Homefield in a rivalry game isn’t worth almost 6 points. The Gamecocks have won 5 straight, rounding into form behind a rapidly improving LaNorris Sellers and an unyielding defensive front. Sellers has posted 3 of his 4 best QBRs as a starting quarterback in his last 4 games. During the win streak, he has 13 touchdown passes, 2 rushing touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. Defensively, the Gamecocks rank 10th nationally in passing success rate allowed and third nationally in sacks. And South Carolina has been through a gauntlet of a schedule. Clemson has sputtered against the better teams it has faced. South Carolina is going to swing hard to start this game. I’m not sure Clemson is ready for that.

Bet South Carolina moneyline

Tennessee at Vanderbilt

Tennessee -10.5 | Total: 48.5

The gift that keeps giving. Once again, a lined game involving Vanderbilt has a spread north of a touchdown. The Commodores, who are 8-3 ATS overall this season, are 7-0 against the spread as an underdog of at least 7 points. I’ve written in this space all year that the way Vandy plays is conducive to tight, lower-scoring games. The South Carolina result is an outlier given the evidence elsewhere. But if there’s a week to fade the ‘Dores, this might be it. Vanderbilt has lost 3 of its last 4 games outright. LSU finally found some footing in the run game against the ‘Dores, which is concerning. Diego Pavia still looked less than 100%, which is also concerning. Pavia was also constantly under duress by the LSU front, which is perhaps the most concerning heading into a matchup with Tennessee. If James Pearce Jr., Dylan Sampson, and Tennessee control the line of scrimmage, the Vols can dictate the terms. For now, the safest play is to back the proven winner. Vanderbilt has yet to let us down in this kind of spot and Tennessee’s operation has looked far different on the road. (It’s worth noting this will be just the fourth true road game Tennessee has played all year.)

Bet Vanderbilt +10.5

Notre Dame at USC

Notre Dame -7.5 | Total: 51.5

I was happy to see this game open in single digits. Had it gone the other way, we’d be talking about USC. At 7.5, though, there’s a ton of value on the visitors. Notre Dame ranks second nationally in opponent-adjusted net EPA per play. The Irish are mauling teams. Since Louisville put a scare into the Irish, they have won each of the last 6 games by 18 points or more, with an average margin of 34 points per game.

The Irish have been jumping on teams in the first half and then leaning on them in the second. Over the last 6 games, Notre Dame has outscored its competition 143-31 in the first half while outgaining them on a per-play basis 7 to 4. The defense also has 9 first-half takeaways in its last 4 games.

How does Jayden Maiava look early against this Notre Dame defense? Notre Dame leads the nation in EPA per dropback faced and passing success rate allowed. Maiava was clean with the ball in USC’s Week 13 rally to beat UCLA, but he had 3 turnover-worthy plays in his debut against Nebraska. As the starter at UNLV a year ago, Maiava had the highest turnover-worthy play rate of any qualified quarterback in the Mountain West. He’s a gunslinger who is still settling into this offense.

Bet Notre Dame -3.5 first-half spread (via FanDuel)

Auburn at Alabama

Alabama -11.5 | Total: 52

Which Alabama team shows up? The Tide have gone on the road 5 times this season and lost 3 of them. They’ve been prolific at home and lackadaisical on the road. Auburn, meanwhile, will be playing only its fourth true road game of the season. A loss will mean the Tigers will miss a bowl game for the second time in 3 years. This feels like a spot where Alabama is a little undervalued. Auburn blew a 21-0 lead against Texas A&M; let’s not forget that. The Alabama defense ranks 13th in EPA per dropback allowed this season and eighth in passing success rate allowed. Mobile quarterbacks have given the Tiger defense fits and chunk plays through the air have been a nagging problem. Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams could have big days.

Bet Alabama -11.5

Arizona State at Arizona

Arizona State -8.5 | Total: 53.5

The Wildcats are bad. They’ve lost 7 of their last 9 games. The 2 wins came against Utah and Houston, who are a combined 4-10 against the rest of the Big 12. Five of the 7 losses have been by 20 points or more. Last Saturday, Arizona went on the road to face a TCU team that hadn’t scored 40 points since September and lost 49-28. The Horned Frogs threw for 303 yards, ran for 6 touchdowns, and limited Arizona to 39 rushing yards. Arizona is one of the most penalized teams in the country and is among the most turnover-stricken. Arizona State has won 4 straight but hasn’t yet locked up a spot in the Big 12 title game. I think they’ll roll here.

Bet Arizona State -8.5

Florida at Florida State

Florida -15 | Total: 45.5

One of the more entertaining aspects of DJ Lagway’s game is that he just goes for it. The freshman quarterback had an average depth of 12.5 yards on all of his passes this season. His 11.0% big-time throw rate (per PFF) is historically high for an SEC quarterback. Lagway has been highly productive in the play-action and, partnered with a ground game that found efficiency against LSU and regained Montrell Johnson against Ole Miss, the Gators have won 2 straight to turn their season around.

This season, Florida State has given up 42 to SMU, 36 to Miami, 35 to North Carolina, and 52 to Notre Dame. All 4 ran for more than 200 yards against the Seminoles. Florida State ranks 73rd in EPA per run faced, gives up far too many chunk plays on the ground, and has been awful on late downs. Florida should be able to get the ground game going, and that opens up Lagway to bomb away. I think this could mimic the Kentucky game, when Florida shredded the Wildcat defense for 48 points.

Bet Florida over 27.5 total team points (via FanDuel)

Washington at Oregon

Oregon -19 | Total: 50.5

Washington has been horrendous away from home this season. In 5 games played away from Husky Stadium, UW is 0-5 with an average of 15.2 points per game. In the 4 true road games UW has played, they have been a full yard per play worse on offense than in home games and almost 2 yards per play worse on defense. Maybe Demond Williams Jr. can give Oregon problems with his dual-threat ability and Jonah Coleman can pop a few runs, but the Ducks have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and they have advantages all over the board. Dan Lanning is 16-9 ATS as a favorite of at least 14 points in his career. And you won’t find any of the things you’d like to see from a giant killer in this UW profile. UW has been awful against the run this season (94th in EPA per run faced). It has one of the worst red zone conversion percentages in the country. It has one of the worst third-down conversion percentages in the country. It doesn’t excel at taking the ball away. And it doesn’t hit chunk plays. Oregon has a metronome-like offense that should be back to operating near peak efficiency following the bye week. If Washington pivots to Williams, it could be a long, mistake-riddled game for the freshman.

Bet Oregon -19

Texas at Texas A&M

Texas -6 | Total: 48.5

The Aggies fell into a 21-0 hole on the road at Auburn before roaring back to force overtime. In the fourth overtime period, A&M drew up a smart play but it ended with a drop in the endzone. Did that drop end the CFP dream? Not technically. The Aggies can get to the SEC Championship Game with a win over Texas. Win that game and they score an AQ spot in the CFP. But can A&M actually derail Texas? Reed had his best passing day of the year, throwing for a career-high 297 yards while completing 22 of his 35 passes in the loss. He threw 3 touchdowns and ran for another 66 yards. The Texas defense will be the best Reed has faced all season by a wide margin. UT’s defense ranks first in the country in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. It ranks second in EPA per dropback, second in passing success rate, and first in havoc rate. No team has given up fewer 10-yard pass plays this season. The speed within this unit might give A&M a shock to the system.

But the atmosphere for this game will be unlike any Texas has played in all year. And the Longhorns will either have a less-than-100% Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning starting at quarterback. And the only time we’ve seen Texas face one of the top teams in the SEC, the offensive line was helpless to protect the quarterback. Georgia registered 7 sacks and 10 TFLs. A&M (17th in havoc rate) has Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart to throw at the Texas ends.

Ewers said his ankle was “just a little tender” following the Longhorns’ win over Kentucky. Coach Steve Sarkisian said it “just kept tightening up” on him. Ewers had an MRI over the weekend that revealed a mild ankle sprain, according to OrangeBloods’ Anwar Richardson. Sarkisian did not have an update when he spoke to media on Monday.