Betting Stuff: Storylines to consider ahead of massive Oregon-Ohio State clash

Some had the Alabama-Georgia game circled on their calendar for months as the “leave the schedule open” date. I’ve been looking forward to Oregon-Ohio State since the Ducks announced plans to join the Big Ten. When these 2 teams met in Columbus in 2021, it was an unbelievable football game. Perhaps I’m setting myself up for failure, but I get the sense the 2024 meeting can be even better.

Both of these teams are in an interesting spot approaching the game. Neither has played any team the caliber of each other yet. No. 2 Ohio State has looked like the more potent team but, with respect to Michigan State, the Buckeyes haven’t been in a road environment yet like the one that awaits inside Autzen Stadium on Saturday. No. 3 Oregon has been on cruise control in recent weeks but had a couple of early close calls in games they were expected to handle. There are questions still to be answered by these national title contenders on both sides.

Here are a few game-specific storylines to consider before betting on the game.

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Ohio State -3 (ESPN Bet) | Total: 53.5 points | Ohio State -165, Oregon +140

Have both been holding back?

Ohio State’s nonconference schedule featured Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. The Buckeyes didn’t need to do much more than roll out of bed and stumble onto the field half-awake to win out against that murderous stretch of opponents. Ohio State’s depth and athleticism advantages were such that Michigan State and Iowa were never going to threaten.

Oregon got a fight from Idaho and then had to face a Boise State team that is probably better than anyone gave it credit for in the preseason. Since, the Ducks have faced an Oregon State team that is nowhere near as talented as a year ago, a bad UCLA team, and Michigan State. The Ducks have been on cruise control the last 2 weeks, holding 28-3 and then 31-0 leads before throttling back.

Outside of the Boise State game Oregon played, neither of these teams have had any reason to do more than the bare minimum to get off to unbeaten starts. How much offseason attention did this game get? How much have these teams been hiding in recent weeks with an eye toward Oct. 12?

I think back to the Alabama-Georgia game when, at halftime, Kirby Smart claimed Alabama caught them off-guard defensively with a number of empty packages the Dawgs hadn’t prepared for. Given its personnel, Georgia seemed in the first half as if it was concerned about Alabama running on them up the middle. Alabama’s coaching staff seemed to suspect that area of emphasis and blew by Georgia on the edges. The Dawgs eventually adjusted and got back into the football game, but spotting an elite team (or elite-adjacent) a 28-point lead will never end with a win. In these kinds of games, those are the edges coaches are hunting throughout prep.

Last week, Ohio State quarterback Will Howard ran 10 times — a season high. He had 8 total rushing attempts through the first 3 games, and had 16 in the last 2. Is that intentional from Chip Kelly? To force the Ducks to spend time preparing for Howard’s legs? Or a signal that Ohio State is trending toward more of that in the future.

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel has only attempted 17 passes so far this season that have traveled at least 20 air yards. Those plays have mostly been successful — 8 completions, 17.6 yards per attempt, 5 big-time throws, 3 touchdowns, 0 turnovers — but that rate is right on line with what Bo Nix did a year ago. Does Oregon break tendencies a little and try to catch Ohio State with some deep shots?

It’s a safe bet one of these teams (or both) will try to recreate what Alabama did. Whoever is successful will take a huge step toward winning.

Oregon’s defensive line will be a shock to the system

Between the 8 starters on the Michigan State and Iowa defensive lines, none were top-50 recruits coming out of high school. Oregon has 2 guys — both ends — starting on the defensive line who were top-50 recruits. While you mostly want to get bigger and older on the offensive and defensive lines in college football, pass-rushers with bend and twitch are the differentiators between good defensive lines and great defensive lines.

That’s why you’ve seen Iowa, or in random years Northwestern, struggle to scale when taking a great defense and putting it up against Ohio State. Ohio State has recruited in a completely different stratosphere from the rest of the Big Ten for years and years and years. Michigan has gotten there. Penn State has as well. It’s no coincidence that those 3 teams are a combined 91-13 against the rest of the Big Ten since the start of 2019 (regular-season only, not including the newcomers).

Ohio State will get a shock to the system when it goes up against the Oregon defensive line. Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell are huge, veteran enforcers on the interior. Jordan Burch and Matayo Uiagalelei are quick-twitch, pass-rushers on the edge. When Oregon goes to the bench, it has multiple blue-chippers to rotate in.

Depth, size, and skill. The Ducks have an SEC-adjacent defensive front because of the way Dan Lanning has recruited since coming to Eugene. Ohio State just doesn’t face those kinds of defenses in the regular season, and certainly not in true road games this early in the campaign.

Burch has 5 sacks already this season — tied for the Big Ten lead. Uiagalelei has 3.5. Harmon has 3 from his nose tackle spot, and his 25 total QB pressures are the second-most of any Big Ten player thus far (per PFF).

Ohio State’s defensive line has yet to be tested this season.

Dillon Gabriel’s recent red zone turnovers

Gabriel entered the season with 49 career starts in 50 appearances. Starts in all 12 games this season would mean Gabriel would break Bo Nix’s NCAA starts record in a 13th game. He’s thrown for more than 16,000 yards and more than 130 touchdowns throughout his career. Very few have more experience.

And yet, Gabriel has made poor decisions in key spots over the last 2 weeks. He was picked off twice by the Spartans in Oregon’s 31-10 win. Both of them came in the red zone. A Gabriel interception also ended an Oregon drive at the 6-yard-line in the win over UCLA. They were just bad decisions from a quarterback who should know better.

Gabriel has been a streaky passer throughout his career. When he’s hot, he can bury a team. But he’s also prone to make mistakes Bo Nix just didn’t. Nix had 5 turnover-worthy plays in 14 games last year, per PFF. Gabriel has 4 in 5 games.

Oregon cannot end drives with turnovers, and Oregon certainly cannot end scoring opportunities with turnovers. Ohio State is too talented. The Buckeyes haven’t gotten their hands on many balls this season (18 pass breakups, tied for 14th among Big Ten schools) and they have just 4 interceptions.

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Jeremiah Smith vs. Jabar Muhammad, and Emeka Egbuka sees…?

Ohio State has a clear matchup advantage with its skill position players against Oregon’s secondary.

In both losses to Washington a year ago, Oregon’s corners lost the battle with Washington’s receivers and that was as big a driving factor in the results as anything. Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk combined for 246 yards and 3 scores in the regular-season UW win, then Odunze and McMillan had 233 combined receiving yards in the Pac-12 title game.

Oregon has gone with more zone coverages this season, perhaps as an adjustment to those games against Washington. The Ducks added Jabbar Muhammad from the transfer portal and he’s been fine.  Tysheem Johnson and Brandon Johnson have both been above average in their roles. Kobe Savage has played sound ball at safety. Oregon ranks fifth this season in yards allowed per dropback.

The corner spot opposite Muhammad can’t get burned. Ohio State can throw Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka at Oregon and pick on wherever Muhammad is not.

Egbuka has beaten what little man coverage he has seen this season, catching 4 of 5 targets for 75 yards and 2 scores. Smith has caught 3 of 4 for 49 yards and a score. The duo has overwhelmingly seen zone coverage.

A good quarterback with time is going to beat zone regardless. This is where Howard’s legs tie back into the picture. If the Ducks’ coaching staff has to account for Howard as a runner and bring a safety down into the box, they put their corners in even more of a bind against a pair of wide receivers who will both be playing on Sundays for a while.

Nikko Reed and Johnson have to play their best games of the season.

Can Oregon lose the explosive battle and win the game?

Because of the matchup advantage on the outside, the assumption is that Ohio State is going to be able to generate some explosives. Smith is just too talented to hold in check for an entire game when someone like Egbuka shares the field with him, and vice versa.

Ohio State ranks fourth in adjusted EPA per play, per Game on Paper.

Whether it’s a reluctance or an inability to consistently do so, Oregon hasn’t been nearly as explosive pushing the ball downfield and they’ve been just average at busting chunk runs. Oregon has had to move more methodically.

Lanning often talks about turnovers and explosives deciding games. Can Oregon beat the Buckeyes if it can’t generate explosive plays? There’s a world where the Ducks can run the football, dictate tempo, and get this game into the mid-to-low 20s. Without turnovers, games in the low 20s are ripe for upsets. (Hello, Arkansas.) But, again, that kind of approach gets undone if Gabriel throws an interception in the red zone.

Cross-country travel vs. the spread this season

Michigan State secured a backdoor cover on a 42-yard field goal with 25 seconds remaining in the loss to Oregon. The number closed at 21.5 points in favor of Oregon at ESPN Bet. The Spartans lost by 21.

Everyone wanted to know how travel would impact these new leagues in an area of college football that is less and less defined by geography. We’ve seen the 6 former Pac-12 schools — Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, UW, Oregon — involved in games where 1 team traveled across multiple time zones. The team that did the traveling is 7-9 against the spread in those games this season.

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.