Betting Stuff: Storylines to consider ahead of Week 1

Editor’s note: Each week, this column will take a look at emerging trends throughout college football and how we can utilize those in the markets. This week will look a little different (and a little lighter) without a full slate of games to analyze, but the goal will be to look at things like player usage and team trends. How is Team X using certain personnel? How is Team Y performing in this specific area?

Let’s dive in

Jeremiah Smith to start for Ohio State

The 5-star freshman wide receiver — who many considered the best prospect in the entire 2024 recruiting class — will be on the field when Ohio State takes its first snap against Akron on Saturday. We expected to see Smith in Week 1 (and often throughout the season) but starting your first game as a true freshman is an achievement, especially at a place like Ohio State. Neither Garrett Wilson nor Marvin Harrison Jr. started as freshmen. Smith will be the first true freshman receiver to start an opener during Ryan Day’s tenure in Columbus. And he’ll be the first true freshman regardless of position to start the opener for the Buckeyes since Denzel Burke did it in 2021.

With Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate expected to occupy the other starting spots, that technically pushes Brandon Inniss to the bench. Inniss was a 5-star in the 2023 class. Tate was a high 4-star. This Ohio State room is just absolutely loaded with talent.

Against Akron, that probably means a heavy rotation is in store. For the season, we’ll see. Snap counts from Pro Football Focus show 5 Buckeye receivers cleared at least 100 snaps as a receiver last season. Harrison dominated the group with 352, and he also dominated the target shares with 114. (Egbuka was second in targets with 60.) Julian Fleming, who has since transferred to Penn State, was second in receiver snaps last year. Three players saw more than 250. After that, there was a significant gap.

Without a proven star like Harrison to top the rotation, we might get a more even distribution of snaps. But if Smith is as advertised, I’m interested to see what that does for the target distribution. Egbuka is the more experienced option, and while he was able to force a number of missed tackles and produce a healthy amount of first downs, he wasn’t blowing the top off of defenses. With a 6-foot-3 frame, a frame conducive to being a contested catch machine, and route-running polish to make it so he doesn’t have to rely on making contested catches, Smith could become a favorite target of quarterback Will Howard if he’s out there enough.

Actionable bet to consider: Bet365 has odds for which receiver will lead the Big Ten in yardage this season. Avoid the top Buckeye on the board (Egbuka is +500) and focus on 1 of the 2 Oregon receivers (Tez Johnson is +400, Evan Stewart +450). Smith (+2000) might end up leading all Ohio State receivers but he’s probably not leading the conference either.

Heinrich Haarberg to play for Nebraska

A 6-foot-5 Kearney native who can dunk and lower the shoulder into defenders, Haarberg started 8 games at quarterback for the Huskers last season. NU went 5-3 in those starts as Haarberg threw for 967 yards, ran for 477, and produced 12 total touchdowns. He played H-back last year and there was talk this offseason about moving him to tight end.

The starting quarterback job belongs to 5-star freshman Dylan Raiola, but NU apparently still has Haarberg in its plans.

“Heinrich, to me, could be a great safety, he could probably be a great linebacker, tailback, wideout, tight end,” coach Matt Rhule said last week. “So we have the opportunity to use him when needed. At the same time, I don’t want to lose my No. 2 quarterback because he ran a dive.

“… We’ve made a decision this year that we’re going to attack. We’re going to go all-in on this team and attack for everything we have. And Heinrich’s a big part of that, so we’re going to use him.”

Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield doubled down on that plan on Tuesday when he said Haarberg is “too athletic to be holding a clipboard.” The plan, according to Satterfield, is for Haarberg to share the field with Raiola “a lot.”

What that means remains to be seen, and it probably doesn’t make much sense for Nebraska to unveil a Taysom Hill-like role for UTEP one week before Colorado comes to town. But maybe that’s the endgame here. Hill has carved out a role for himself with the New Orleans Saints by being an everything man. Haarberg has more size than Hill, but he’s remarkably athletic at 6-foot-5.

Nebraska is a 27.5-point favorite over UTEP in Week 1 (FanDuel). The talent gap is wide and NU shouldn’t need to get creative to beat the Miners.

But having a Swiss army knife kind of player helps in the margins when things get tight. Haarberg can be a matchup problem if used properly.

Jaylin Lucas to be more involved for Florida State

An Indiana transfer at running back, Lucas made his FSU debut last Saturday in Dublin. According to PFF, he played 7 snaps. In the game, he had 3 total touches for 18 yards, 3 missed tackles forced, and 2 first downs.

A 5-foot-9 scatback, Lucas looked energetic at the start of the game and then disappeared entirely from the plan as the affair went on.

RB Jaylin Lucas (5-7, 175) vs Georgia Tech
Had 3 Touches in the First 8 Offensive Plays (38% Touch Rate) for FSU. 0 Touches After That.
7 Total Offensive Snaps
3 Touches for 18 Yards (6.0 AVG)
3 Missed Tackles Forced
2 First Downs (67% Success Rate) pic.twitter.com/kuCbGmyfun

— Clay Fink (@clay_fink) August 27, 2024

In 2 seasons at Indiana, Lucas totaled 2,052 all-purpose yards — 1,163 kickoff return yards, 546 rushing yards, 329 receiving yards, and 14 punt return yards. He scored 3 kickoff return touchdowns to tie a school record. He was a playmaker when he got the ball.

For a Florida State team that averaged 5 yards per play, 3.4 yards per rushing attempt (adjusted for sacks), and had just 1 rushing attempt gain more than 10 yards, the Seminoles need more dynamism in their offense after Week 0.

Questions about the gameplan seem valid in the aftermath. Florida State was bad on standard downs and put quarterback DJ Uiagalelei in too many obvious passing situations while also not looking entirely comfortable with him throwing downfield.

Boston College is switching to a 3-4 this season under new defensive coordinator Tim Lewis. Expect Lewis to pack the box with an extra defensive back. You’d expect a 3-4 defense to be lighter against the run but Georgia Tech pushed Florida State around with a 3-down front that had Romello Height rushing off the edge.

First order of business: Florida State just needs better execution in Week 1 — both from the players and the play-caller. But getting Lucas on the field more would give a nice change of pace to Roydell Williams.

Actionable bet to consider: FSU opened as more than a 20-point favorite in this matchup. That line was down to 17 points on Monday and it’s now 15.5 at ESPN Bet. There is a ton of action on Boston College. Until we see FSU knows what its strengths are and can call a game to accentuate those strengths, a 2-touchdown favorite is too rich. Get this number before it drops too low.

Jalen Milroe to do his thing for Alabama

Kalen DeBoer makes his long-awaited debut this weekend for Alabama. The question on the mind of every Alabama fan is a simple one: how will this Crimson Tide offense look compared to DeBoer’s Washington offense last year?

The offensive line is just as talented, if not more so. The running back room is arguably deeper. The receivers might not have the same top-end talent. The quarterbacks are significantly different. Therein lies the mystery.

Michael Penix Jr. was a pocket passer who could feel and fire, delivering laser beams from one hash to the opposite sideline. His throws made weekly highlight reels with their anticipation and ball placement. Milroe has elite physical tools, but he’s more of a dual-threat option whose primary areas of concern are anticipation and accuracy.

After an offseason of working with DeBoer, the Alabama coaching staff has done nothing but sing Milroe’s praises.

“He’s been consistent. And that’s what I think one of the biggest qualities you can have is consistency. Obviously, you want to consistently be at the highest level that you possibly can,” said DeBoer. “You want to walk on the field — and this is for any player, but I think this is something Jalen has done a better and better job of since we’ve gotten here — and it’s you know what you’re going to get when you get out there. Whether it’s the attitude, the effort, the play on the field. There really haven’t been some crazy highs or crazy lows.”

Players and coaches alike have been shy to say how this Alabama offense will compare to UW’s. But DeBoer said this week he isn’t rigid, rather he’ll build around what he has. Milroe closed the regular season on absolute fire last fall — with QBRs north of 88 in each of Alabama’s final 4 games.

Milroe was a fringe Heisman Trophy contender late last season. DeBoer’s quarterback finished second in voting. The statistical ceiling for Milroe is high, and if a young secondary takes some time to get its feet on the ground, Milroe might have some weeks where he has to play a little hero ball. He’s currently +1100 to win the Heisman at Caesars. Keep an eye on how Milroe progresses through his reads and how often the staff dials up designed runs for him in Week 1.

Notre Dame to be up against it at Texas A&M

Notre Dame is starting true freshman Anthonie Knapp at left tackle for its game against Texas A&M this weekend. Knapp enters the lineup following Charles Jagusah’s season-ending injury during fall camp. Next to Knapp, sophomore Sam Pendleton will start at left guard after beating out Rocco Spindler for the job.

That means that Notre Dame’s entire starting offensive line will face Texas A&M with a combined 6 starts under their belt.

Knapp, obviously, will be making his collegiate debut. Per PFF, Pendleton has played 15 career snaps on offense. Center Ashton Craig, a redshirt sophomore, did not appear in a game his first year and played sparingly last season before entering the starting lineup for the final 3 games. The same can be said for right guard Billy Schrauth. Right tackle Aamil Wagner has only played 52 snaps in his 2-year career thus far.

Texas A&M is starting Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart at defensive end. Shemar Turner and DJ Hicks are the starting defensive tackles. Cashius Howell will start at the Jack position.

Those 5 players had a combined 151 quarterback pressures and 28 quarterback sacks last season.

Notre Dame is going to seriously struggle to move the football against the Aggies’ pressure, at least early on.

Actionable bet to consider: Texas A&M is -0.5 in the first half against Notre Dame at DraftKings. The Aggies are also likely to win the race to 10 points (-160). I’m expecting a slow start from the Irish on the road.