Each week, we’ll be taking a look at the current College Football Playoff picture. Who are the favorites to earn a spot in the 12-team field? Which teams are trending up? Who is fading? Let’s dive in.

(All odds via ESPN Bet)

Georgia Bulldogs (-750 Yes/+450 No)

Simply put, there is very little value in betting on Georgia to make the Playoff at this juncture of the season. The implied odds are at 88%, which is right in line with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). That model gives the Bulldogs an 86.8% chance to make the CFP.

The Bulldogs opened the season with a 34-3 whipping of Clemson in Atlanta. But the toughest games are still ahead. Georgia has road games against Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss — all teams that currently sit inside the AP top 6. The Bulldogs also host No. 14 Tennessee on Nov. 16. Per FPI, Georgia has the third-toughest schedule in the country, so multiple losses might not even be a death knell for Kirby Smart’s program.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-650 Yes/+400 No)

The Buckeyes opened with a 52-6 win over Akron. Transfer quarterback Will Howard threw for 228 yards and 3 scores, 2 of which went to freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith.

Ohio State has a 68.6% chance to make the CFP, per FPI. That’s about 20 percentage points lower than what the current -650 number would suggest. A bet on Ohio State to miss the CFP (20% implied at +400) may have been on the minds of some after Ohio State took a half to settle in against Akron. The Buckeyes play No. 21 Iowa, No. 7 Oregon, No. 8 Penn State, and No. 10 Michigan still this season — with 2 at home and 2 on the road.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-350 Yes/+250 No)

The Irish jumped 2 spots in the AP poll after beating Texas A&M in College Station, 23-13. For a young offensive line and a transfer quarterback, Notre Dame fared well in a hostile environment. It took a half to get going, but Notre Dame’s smothering defense gave plenty of room for error.

Given Florida State’s 0-2 start to the season, Notre Dame’s schedule suddenly looks plenty manageable. The Irish cannot earn one of the top 4 seeds in the CFP, but they’ll be competitive with anyone they get put up against for an at-large spot. A road trip to USC on Nov. 30 looks better after the Trojans opened their season with a neutral-site win over LSU. Georgia Tech (home on Oct. 19) also cracked the top 25 after its win over FSU. FPI says Notre Dame has the fourth-best chance of any team to make the CFP (70.3%) and a remaining strength of schedule that ranks 70th.

Oregon Ducks (-330 Yes/+240 No)

Oregon’s odds have taken a slight dip since opening the season with a 24-14 win over FCS Idaho. The Ducks rolled up 487 yards of total offense but had their poorest day putting points on the board (in terms of yards per point) since the Georgia game in 2022. As a result, they dropped 5 spots in the AP poll.

FPI says Oregon now has just a 34% chance to make the CFP — well below Ohio State and Penn State. But the Ducks have games remaining against both Ohio State and Michigan. And if Boise State enters the CFP discussion as the top-ranked Group of 5 team, a win over the Broncos this weekend will be another point in Oregon’s favor.

Texas Longhorns (-260 Yes/+200 No)

FPI says the Longhorns have a 78.2% chance to make the CFP. That’s after routing Colorado State 52-0 to open the season. The odds are bound to see a huge shift following the upcoming weekend, when Texas visits Ann Arbor for a top-10 showdown with Michigan. A road win over a Big Ten elite will greatly help UT in any at-large discussion the committee has. And Texas will have plenty of opportunities in SEC play to pile up signature wins.

Arkansas and Kentucky both had huge openers. If either spends a season on the fringe of the top 25, Texas will benefit. The Longhorns have a 3-week stretch in October that will decide their fate to a large degree. After facing Mississippi State to close out September, UT hits its first bye week. On the other side is a date with Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl and then a home game against the Dawgs.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-200 Yes/+160 No)

The Nittany Lions saw a bump after beating West Virginia 34-12 on the road to open the season. Of the top teams in the Big Ten, Penn State arguably looked the best while facing the stiffest test. FPI now says Penn State is the most likely team from the Big Ten to earn a spot in the CFP, putting the percentage chance at 70.2%.

Penn State travels to USC on Oct. 13. It hosts Ohio State on Nov. 2. That game against the Buckeyes will be huge for the program and for coach James Franklin. In the last 5 years, Penn State is 43-18 overall. Eight of those losses have come to Ohio State or Michigan. Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2016.

Ole Miss Rebels (-140 Yes/+110 No)

The Rebels opened their most anticipated season ever with a 76-0 beatdown of FCS Furman. Jaxson Dart officially announced himself as a Heisman contender, Tre Harris had a monster day catching the football, and the defense stonewalled Furman for the program’s first shutout since Sept. 17, 2022.

FPI gives Ole Miss a 44.1% chance to reach the CFP, which is notably lower than the implied likelihood ESPN Bet’s -140 odds carry (58.3%). The Rebels will face 3 AP top 20 teams from Oct. 12 on in LSU, Oklahoma, and Georgia.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-135 Yes/+105 No)

Here we have one of the largest discrepancies between what FPI projects and what Vegas expects. At -135, Alabama has an implied likelihood of 57.5% to make the CFP. ESPN’s power index gives the Crimson Tide a 77% chance to get in.

In Kalen DeBoer’s debut, Alabama wowed, blasting Western Kentucky 63-0 behind one of the most explosive offensive performances we saw anywhere in Week 1. Alabama, like Georgia, has a schedule loaded with marquee games. The Tide will face 5 teams currently resting inside the AP top 20, including Georgia on Sept. 28 and Missouri on Oct. 26.

Tennessee Volunteers (+140)

The Vols beat Chattanooga 69-3 thanks in part to a dazzling performance from redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava. With such a young player at such a crucial position, though, there’s at least a little risk backing the Vols. They have road games against Oklahoma and Georgia, and they host Alabama.

Of course, Iamaleava might just be impressive beyond his years. We’ll get a clearer picture this week against a ranked NC State opponent and a defense with a knack for confusing quarterbacks. FPI gives the Vols a 49.7% chance to make the CFP.

Michigan Wolverines (+150)

With some controversy still around the quarterback spot, Michigan opened its season with a less-than-convincing 30-10 win over Fresno State at home. The defense was outstanding, but the offense left some meat on the bone.

Getting back to the CFP and defending its title from last season will be a challenge. FPI ranks Michigan’s remaining schedule as the third-toughest in the Big Ten and the hardest of any of the league’s CFP contenders. Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, and USC all have a better chance than U-M (23.2%) of reaching the CFP. The good news for Michigan: It will play 3 of those 4, and 2 of them at home.

Missouri Tigers (+180)

Missouri raced past Murray State 51-0 in its opener. A game against Boston College suddenly looks trickier after the Eagles upset Florida State. Maybe the same can be said of Vanderbilt, which beat Virginia Tech in its opener. But the Tigers still have an incredible opportunity to take a 7-0 record in Tuscaloosa for a game against Alabama on Oct. 26.

Eli Drinkwitz’s group has a 32% chance to make the CFP, according to FPI, thanks in no small part to what the model considers the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the SEC. Of course, that’s not exactly a weakness overall. Every SEC team’s remaining schedule ranks in the national top 25.

Utah Utes (+180)

There’s another 20-point gap between FPI and ESPN Bet’s odds in Salt Lake City, but going the other way. FPI gives the Utes a 14% chance to make the Playoff. The model is very high on Kansas and Kansas State, and it actually gave UCF a huge bump after the Knights beat FCS New Hampshire 57-3 in the opener.

Sitting at No. 11 nationally, Utah can play its way in. The Utes have games against Oklahoma State and Arizona. And they close the regular season with a trip to Orlando. A Big 12 title gets it done, but will that conference get a second team in? That looks significantly more likely given the start to the season the ACC is suffering through.

USC Trojans (+225)

The 27-20 win over LSU will do wonders for the Trojans if they’re able to put 9 or more wins on the board in their first season in the Big Ten. USC misses Oregon and Ohio State, but it has top-10 games against Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame. The latter 2 are at home.

FPI gives USC a 23.5% chance to reach the CFP.

Clemson Tigers (+240)

Clemson isn’t dead in the water after 1 defeat. FPI gives the Tigers a 14.5% chance to make the CFP still. And a 34-3 loss to Georgia does absolutely nothing to Clemson’s ability to win the ACC. Dabo Swinney’s group also won’t face Miami, which looks like the class of the ACC after Week 1.

Maybe Florida State has it figured out by the time the 2 sides meet in early October. Maybe Louisville challenges once again for the ACC crown. NC State beating Tennessee on Saturday would help the ACC, but it would also help Clemson. The Tigers don’t have many opportunities left to impress the committee against a top-flight team, and if they chew up on the bottom half of the ACC, that alone won’t be enough to overcome a handful of stinkers in bigger games.

LSU Tigers (+250)

The Tigers have yet to win a season opener under coach Brian Kelly. And he’s pretty angry about that. LSU got strong play from its quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier, in the loss to USC but it got turned away in the red zone 1 too many times and could not corral Miller Moss.

That loss was damaging. FPI gives LSU just a 5.8% chance to make the CFP, which is drastically lower than the 28.6% likelihood implied by the Tigers’ +250 price. Ole Miss and Alabama are on the schedule still for LSU and it realistically needs at least 1 of those games.

Kansas State Wildcats (+260)

Kansas State gets Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas all at home this season. Taking the current AP poll rankings, those are the only 3 ranked opponents on the schedule. The Wildcats opened with a 41-6 win over UT Martin. They have a tune-up game at Tulane this week before the Big 12 opener at home against Arizona on Sept. 13. FPI gives them a 17.2% chance to make the CFP and does not view them as the favorite to win the Big 12.

Texas A&M Aggies (+360)

A&M is still a top-20 team with power models but it dropped from the human polls this week after a disappointing home showing against Notre Dame. Quarterback Conner Weigman struggled, throwing 2 interceptions and only completing 40% of his passes. FPI offers hope, yet. A&M has a 6.5% chance to make the CFP. Games remain against Missouri, LSU, and Texas — all of them at home.

Liberty Flames (+380)

Liberty has the best odds of any Group of 5 team currently on the board, but FPI says there are 8 Group of 5 teams and 2 Pac-12 teams (so… both) that have a better chance of making the CFP. The model gives Jamey Chadwell’s group only a 3.4% chance to make the CFP. The Flames were a 41.5-point favorite in their opener and won by 17. They play a week nonconference schedule and play in one of the weakest conferences in the country. They need to be consistently running teams off the field to rank high enough at the end to grab a spot.

Memphis Tigers (+400)

Memphis sits just above Liberty, with a 3.5% chance in FPI’s projections. The Tigers opened their season with a 40-0 win over North Alabama. They had a marquee nonconference game against Florida State that could have made a strong impression win or loss, but now that game looks significantly less promising.

Oklahoma Sooners (+425)

Oklahoma scored 51 points in its opener and heads into Week 2 as a 28-point favorite. The Sooners might not be tested prior to a Week 4 home tilt with Tennessee. But league play provides plenty of opportunities to stack impressive wins. Oklahoma faces 6 teams currently sitting inside the AP top 20. FPI gives the Sooners a 30.8% chance to make the CFP.

Louisville Cardinals (+450)

Jeff Brohm’s team is more likely to make the CFP than Missouri, Oklahoma, and Michigan, according to FPI. But unlike some of the other ACC title contenders, Louisville’s league slate does not offer a clean pathway to Charlotte. The Cards face Georgia Tech, SMU, Miami, and Clemson. They also have a road game at Notre Dame on Sept. 28. Wins will look good, but the chance of multiple losses seems high.

Boise State Broncos (+450)

Boise is the G5 team FPI is currently rolling with, giving the Broncos a 23.7% chance to make the CFP. A win over Oregon in Eugene this weekend would obviously help, but the Broncos don’t necessarily need that to make the field. We need to see how the Broncos stack up, though. In the opener against Georgia Southern, Boise State found itself in a shootout and needed 6 rushing scores from Ashton Jeanty to outlast the Eagles, 56-45. Giving up gobbs of points is not something any hopeful from the G5 ranks can afford to do.