Each week, we’ll be taking a look at the current College Football Playoff picture and the race to the 2024-25 National Championship. Who are the favorites to earn a spot in the 12-team field? Which teams are trending up? Who is fading? Last week’s picture can be found here. Let’s dive in.

(All odds via ESPN Bet)

Ohio State Buckeyes (-900 Yes/+500 No)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) expects 11 wins from the Buckeyes this season and gives them a 49% chance to win the Big Ten. Penn State has the next best likelihood at 19.8%. The Buckeyes returned from a bye week to trounce Marshall and head into their first Big Ten game with a perfect 3-0 mark.

Georgia Bulldogs (-700 Yes/+425 No)

Trend: ⬇️

Georgia’s odds took a slight dip during its bye week, but the Bulldogs are still viewed as a virtual lock to make the CFP. That isn’t likely to change regardless of Saturday’s result against Alabama. ESPN’s Playoff Predictor says Georgia can lose 2 of its 3 games against Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss and still have a 99% chance to make the CFP. The Dawgs have the best strength of record in the country, with that Clemson win looking better by the week.

Texas Longhorns (-600 Yes/+380 No)

Trend: ⬇️ 

Texas inserted Arch Manning at quarterback and it didn’t affect the bottom line at all. The Longhorns rolled UL Monroe without their starting quarterback and now. Per FPI, Texas has the best chance to make the CFP at 92.7%.

Oregon Ducks (-400 Yes/+270 No)

Trend: ⬆️

Oregon has just a 48.5% chance to make the CFP, per FPI. For those who put stock into ESPN’s proprietary power model, there’s probably a ton of value in a ticket on Oregon to miss the CFP. We still don’t know much about the Ducks, who looked more like we expected them to look 2 weekends ago and then went into a bye week. They play UCLA on the road in Week 5.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-400 Yes/+280 No)

Trend: ⬆️   

Alabama is in a similar spot to Georgia. A loss in Week 5 won’t kill the Playoff dream. A win will serve the Crimson Tide well, but these top SEC teams are likely to be judged on the whole of their season rather than 1 or 2 games. The Crimson Tide still have a stretch of 3 straight games against ranked SEC teams later this season.

Tennessee Volunteers (-260 Yes/+200 No)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Tennessee has an 80% chance to reach the CFP, per FPI. The Vols moved to 4-0 last Saturday with a 25-15 win over Oklahoma in Norman. At times, Tennessee looked like it could go for even more against the Sooners. Still, a road win against an elite defensive unit showed this Tennessee team absolutely belongs with the top-tier contenders. The Vols rank second nationally in strength of record and second in game control.

Ole Miss Rebels (-250 Yes/+190 No)

Trend: no change

The Rebels blasted Georgia Southern 52-13 in Week 4. Through the nonconference portion of the schedule, Ole Miss has not been tested whatsoever, but the Rebels’ overall 240-22 scoring margin is still eye-popping.

Miami Hurricanes (-220 Yes/+160 No)

Trend: ⬇️ 

From a perception standpoint, Miami might get hurt by the quality of the ACC as a whole, but the Hurricanes are doing everything asked of them so far. The league’s winner is going to the CFP. And Miami looks like the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC after its 4-0 start. The Canes have scored 50 points in 3 straight games and have a plus-168 scoring margin on the season.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-220 Yes/+170 No)

Trend: ⬇️

Penn State took a quarter to get rolling against Kent State, but it absolutely did get rolling. The Nittany Lions won 56-0 thanks to multiple touchdowns in each of the final 3 quarters. We’ll find out how legit this Penn State offense is in Week 5 when Illinois comes to town with an excellent secondary.

Utah Utes (+105)

Trend: ⬆️ 

Utah stepped into conference play and won arguably its toughest game of the season with its backup quarterback. Utah fans were confident the program would find immediate success in the Big 12, and that rubbed other fanbases the wrong way prior to the season. In the first opportunity to serve Utah some humble pie, one of the Big 12’s most consistent winners fell down 22-3 at home, was outgained 368-156 through the first 3 quarters, and benched its seventh-year senior quarterback. Utah holds the keys to the Big 12 title.

Missouri Tigers (+125)

Trend: ⬆️

Missouri improved to 4-0 by outlasting Vanderbilt in double overtime. While others in the SEC are steamrolling non-con opponents, the Tigers are scraping by. Does that mean anything? Missouri had a shaky September last season and still won 11 games.

Clemson Tigers (+200)

Trend: no change

Clemson has responded to the Georgia loss by blasting consecutive opponents and putting 125 points on the board in 8 quarters. If this offense is trustworthy, Clemson might roll to the ACC title game. Louisville (Nov. 2) looks like the only test left on the schedule.

USC Trojans (+210)

Trend: ⬇️

Despite losing to Michigan on the road, 27-24, USC remained ahead of Michigan in FPI and still has a better percentage chance to make the CFP (17.9%) than the Wolverines (11.1%). Michigan had a 68.3% postgame win expectancy in the USC game, per SP+, but it certainly did not pass the eye test. That game could very well become one of the more contentious results in the CFP discussion.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+210)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️

The Fighting Irish took nearly an entire half to get control of Miami (OH) and the Northern Illinois team that beat them on Sept. 7 in South Bend lost in overtime to Buffalo. Not a good weekend for the Irish, yet oddsmakers shortened Notre Dame’s odds. The implied likelihood of Notre Dame to make the CFP a week ago was 21% whereas now it’s 32%.

Boise State Broncos (+300)

Trend: ⬆️

The Broncos (2-1) are the Group of 5 team with the best chance to make the CFP, per FPI. Boise State rolled its opponent while Memphis lost and Liberty had to rally once again to win a game.

Louisville Cardinals (+340)

Trend: ⬆️ 

The Cards won their ACC opener 31-19 over Georgia Tech and now they face Notre Dame on the road. If there’s a Playoff push to be made by Louisville, it begins in Week 5.

LSU Tigers (+340)

Trend: ⬇️

FPI gives 7 teams a better chance to make the Playoff than LSU (3-1). The Tigers beat UCLA by 17 points in Week 4 but have opened the season 0-4 against the spread.

Liberty Flames (+360)

Trend: ⬇️

The Flames are 4-0 on the season but they’ve played their first 4 opponents to a first-half draw, allowing 47 points and scoring 47 points. They have had to pull off fourth-quarter rallies in 2 of their 4 wins. Given the concerns about Liberty’s schedule strength, struggling to get a grip on games will not help the Flames in the eyes of the CFP committee.

Texas A&M Aggies (+400)

Trend: ⬆️

The Aggies have won 3 straight since their opening loss to Notre Dame, but a 26-20 win over Bowling Green didn’t inspire a ton of confidence. The Aggies were very much in a fight in the fourth quarter. But the same thing also happened when Penn State hosted Bowling Green in Week 2.

Iowa State Cyclones (+425)

Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️

Iowa State joins the fold for the first time this season. FPI gives the Cyclones a 15.6% chance to make the CFP and views the Cyclones as a No. 3 in the Big 12 race. Iowa State is 3-0 with a win at Iowa and a 52-7 drubbing of Arkansas State.

Kansas State Wildcats (+450)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️

The Wildcats crumbled in Week 4, dropping their first game of the season to BYU on the road, 38-9. It was one of the weirder results in Week 4. Kansas State had a 6-0 lead going into the final 5 minutes of the first half. During the middle 8 (final 4 of the first half, first 4 of the second half), Kansas State was outscored 31-0. The Cougars hit a field goal, returned a fumble 30 yards for a score, threw a pair of touchdown passes, and returned a punt 90 yards for a score. Kansas State held onto its top-25 ranking and has a chance to rebound at home against Oklahoma State in Week 5.

UCF Knights (+550)

Trend: ⬇️

The Knights (3-0) come off a bye week to host Colorado on national television. Can UCF survive the Prime circus? The Knights look like a true threat in the Big 12, and FPI views them as the most likely Playoff representative (34.3% chance to make the CFP).

Michigan Wolverines (+700)

Trend: ⬇️

Michigan beat USC by 3 at home, but the result had holes in it. Michigan had a 20-10 lead late in the third, but had to rally down 4 in the final 4 minutes to beat USC. The Wolverines did it while throwing for just 32 yards.

Memphis Tigers (+800)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ 

Memphis followed up a huge win over the defending ACC champion by giving up 56 points to Navy. The Tigers cannot afford another loss the rest of the way. The remaining strength of schedule ranks 108th nationally.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+800)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ 

Oklahoma State has a win over Arkansas from a game it should have lost. Now it has an actual loss on the record. The Cowboys have some very real problems on offense. FPI gives them just a 10.3% chance to make the Playoff.

Oklahoma Sooners (+2000)

Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️

An SEC team sits 3-1 just 1 game into league play. That team has games remaining against 5 ranked opponents, 3 of which are currently sitting in the top 6. On principle, some might throw some money behind OU here. The SEC is going to produce multi-loss Playoff participants. If Oklahoma beats 3 of those ranked opponents, will the committee really shut the door? Of course, the odds here highlight how unlikely it is this Oklahoma team — which will make the official move to a new quarterback in Week 5 — can actually pull off multiple top-10 upsets.