Remarkably, no one seems to be happy with the College Football Playoff bracket. Indiana wants to be hosting a game. Oregon was the best team in the regular season and got one of the hardest draws. Penn State lost to Ohio State and Oregon and got a better path to a title than both of them. The SMU-Alabama debate has raged with fervor, and understandably so, but all of the non-Playoff teams ranked in the 11-17 spots in the CFP committee’s final rankings have legitimate beef. BYU finished with the same record as SMU, has a better strength of record (per FPI), has a better strength of schedule, and has a head-to-head win over the Mustangs on the road, yet SMU is ranked 6 spots ahead of BYU in the final ranking. This year revealed obvious flaws in the system. And those flaws were exacerbated by a selection committee that seemed more interested in taking the safest, most politically correct approach in the face of complex dilemmas. We had a year marked by unequal conferences and unequal schedules, so it’s no surprise we have a Playoff bracket that is noticeably unbalanced. Three of the 4 highest-rated teams in the country (per SP+) are on the same side of the bracket. ESPN Bet is currently taking tickets on each of the 12 teams to reach the semifinals as well as to reach the championship game. Below, you’ll see each of the 12 teams’ odds to make the title game at ESPN Bet, along with the implied probability those prices carry and the percentage chance SP+ gives each team to make the title game.
  • Georgia: +130 to reach title, 43.5% implied odds, 34.1% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Oregon: +185 to reach title, 35.1% implied odds, 33.1% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Penn State: +185 to reach title, 35.1% implied odds, 21.8% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Texas: +200 to reach title, 33.3% implied odds, 31.0% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Ohio State: +300 to reach title, 25.0% implied odds, 20.6% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Notre Dame: +350 to reach title, 22.2% implied odds, 18.8% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Indiana: +1500 to reach title, 6.3% implied odds, 9.4% chance to reach title per SP+
  • SMU: +1500 to reach title, 6.3% implied odds, 10.4% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Tennessee: +1600 to reach title, 5.9% implied odds, 9.2% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Boise State: +1800 to reach title, 5.3% implied odds, 5.5% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Arizona State: +2000 to reach title, 4.8% implied odds, 2.9% chance to reach title per SP+
  • Clemson +2000 to reach title, 4.8% implied odds, 3.1% chance to reach title per SP+
Tennessee jumps out. The Vols are eighth nationally in SP+. (They’re also seventh in FPI and ninth in Sagarin. The 8-9 game feels appropriate, even if Tennessee had a case for hosting that game.) With touchdown machine Dylan Sampson and legitimately one of the best defenses in the country, Tennessee has a national championship ceiling. If the protection allows for it and Nico Iamaleava hits enough shot plays, Tennessee can certainly win the whole thing. But, man. The Vols have what looks to be the toughest path of anyone. They have to go on the road in the opening round to face what most power models suggest is one of the best teams in the country. Ohio State is third in Sagarin, first in FEI, and first in SP+. The Buckeyes have an outstanding defense, same as Tennessee. They have 2 tailbacks that are as good as any in college football. And they have 3 receivers who are as good as any in the country. The biggest question Ohio State faces in this postseason is not even really a football question. Rather, it’s one of mindset. Can Ohio State pick itself up off the mat? Will Ohio State be too shell-shocked by the Michigan loss? Is the noise around Ryan Day too loud? And all those questions can be answered pretty quickly if Ohio State goes out and beats Tennessee. Should the Vols get past Ohio State, they face Oregon. The Ducks are second in Sagarin, FEI, and SP+. They’re the only unbeaten team in the country. They’re the top seed and the closest thing I’ve seen to an elite in college football this year. Maybe Tennessee (+2500) is worth a flier at ESPN Bet to win the entire thing; if the Vols beat Ohio State and then beat Oregon, it’s all downhill from there. No one left in the field would pose a greater challenge than the 2 teams Tennessee has already beaten. Tennessee is a 7.5-point dog at Ohio State. I’d think Oregon in a quarterfinal game would be in that 6.5-8.5 range as well. Related reading: Early College Football Playoff bets to make after bracket reveal Going the other direction, Texas is the clearest beneficiary of this Playoff format. The Longhorns are -220 to reach the CFP semis at ESPN Bet, the best odds of any of the 12 teams. They’ll open with Clemson at home in the first round and then face Arizona State. Texas does not have a single win over a team that was ranked in the committee’s final Top 25. In fact, Texas only has 4 wins all season over teams that lost fewer than 6 total games. The Longhorns beat a Colorado State team that finished 8-4, a Michigan team that finished 7-5, a Florida team that finished 7-5, and a Texas A&M team that finished 8-4. Those are the best wins. Texas played 2 games against a Playoff-caliber opponent. One of them was at home, the other was on a neutral field. Texas lost both. And yet the Longhorns’ first-round opponent is a 3-loss team that is in the field purely because of a walk-off field goal in the ACC title game. Clemson lost to South Carolina and got handled by Georgia. The Tigers’ only ranked win is over SMU. Clemson is 18th in Sagarin, 16th in FEI, and 17th in SP+. Texas is around an 11-point favorite in the game, depending on where you shop. That’s the largest point spread of any of the first-round games. If the Longhorns advance, they’ll get Arizona State in the quarters. The Sun Devils have won 6 straight, covered the spread in 11 of their 13 games this season, and are an amazing story. But are they able to beat the runner-ups from the SEC? Arizona State is 30th in SP+. (Sagarin has ASU 12th, FEI 15th.) Though just in its first year in the league, Texas has compiled an SEC-caliber roster. How does Arizona State handle the Texas defensive front? That’s a major question mark. The best defense ASU has seen all year is probably Utah’s. How big is the gap between Texas and Utah? Penn State jumps out as the obvious choice for the team with the clearest path to the semifinals. Penn State landed on the track that has the only Group of 5 school in the bracket, and it got a first-round home game against SMU. Penn State is -185 to make the semifinal round, via ESPN Bet. SMU, however, is not the pushover it is made out to be. The Mustangs have one of the country’s best defenses, ranking ninth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, per Game on Paper. They are 10th nationally in Sagarin, 12th in SP+ and 13th in FEI. On a neutral field, SP+ only gives Penn State a 2.5-point advantage over SMU. Betting on Penn State carries historical risk. James Franklin is bad against AP Top 15 teams. Throughout his tenure, he has consistently underperformed in these games. Since the start of the 2022 season, Franklin is 1-7 against top-15 teams. Since winning the Big Ten in 2016, he is 4-17 against top-15 teams. The risk with Texas is that their offense hasn’t been clicking consistently enough this season. The risk with Penn State is that its coach just might not be able to win a big game. On paper, Penn State has an advantageous position in the 12-team CFP. We will see if the Nittany Lions can actually make the most of it.