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Much like last season, when Wisconsin, Maryland and Michigan State tied for a share of the Big Ten regular-season title and nine teams finished better than .500, it could be a very competitive few months.
At least six teams can make an argument that they can compete for the top spot, and another four might be itching for top-three finishes. It should be a fun winter and early spring, seeing where the teams shake out before March Madness.
Our preseason Big Ten basketball ranking:
1. Iowa
The Hawkeyes are hoping they can score their way to a Big Ten Championship, and they’ve got the personnel to make it happen. With Luka Garza, Fran McCaffery has the most versatile offensive player in the Big Ten, but Iowa is more than just the big man.
Wing Joe Wieskamp can do a little of everything, while CJ Fredrick is an excellent shooter from the perimeter, having hit 46 percent of his 3-pointers for the 20-11 overall, 11-9 in the Big Ten Hawkeyes last season. Jordan Bohannon is back ready to go as well, after shutting it down last season due to a hip injury. If he can return to form, it’d be huge for the Hawkeyes.
But Iowa needs to defend, at least a little. Last season — and this has been an ongoing problem under McCaffery — the Hawkeyes were second-to-last in the Big Ten in scoring defense.
2. Illinois
Brad Underwood’s two biggest off-season gets might be two familiar faces: guard Ayo Dosunmu and center Kofi Cockburn both decided to return to Champaign rather than stay in the NBA Draft. And automatically, the Fighting Illini became a top-10 team nationally and one of the favorites in the Big Ten.
Illinois, which finished a game out of the three-way tie for the conference title, has to find a way to replace Alan Griffin, who transferred shortly after the season. But perhaps Da’Monte Williams, a fierce defender, will help fill that role. Trent Frazier is great at the point, a senior who hit 51 3-pointers last season. If Illinois can find him shooting help on the perimeter, then watch out.
3. Wisconsin
Midway through the last year’s Big Ten slate, there was grumbling that coach Greg Gard had lost his team. Everyone who thought so, however, was wrong. The Badgers rallied to earn themselves not only a share of the Big Ten Championship but also the conference tournament’s No. 1 seed.
Gard returns nearly the whole group, with a roster that includes five seniors who are in the rotation, including big men Nate Reuvers, Micah Potter and Aleem Ford and guards D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison. Forward Ben Carlson highlights a big freshman class and could find his way into an important role off the bench.
4. Michigan State
Michigan State moves into the post-Cassius Winston Era, which was capped in the spring by winning a share of the Big Ten Championship. But even without Winston running the show, Tom Izzo has enough talent to make a run at yet another title.
Sophomore forward Aaron Henry is the top returning scorer, after averaging 10 points last season, but he’ll have plenty of help. Rocket Watts takes over full time as the starting point guard and MSU will need more productive minutes from big man Marcus Bingham Jr. But it’s a couple others who might make the biggest difference between whether the Spartans are good or great: Joey Hauser, who sat out last season after his transfer from Marquette, is back eligible; and Josh Langford returns after battling a foot injury for a couple seasons.
5. Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights were the surprise of the Big Ten a year ago, finishing 11-9 in the league and 20-11 overall. Coach Steve Pikiell’s group won’t be able to sneak up on anyone this season, however.
Poised to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in almost three decades, the Knights were forced to wait one more year, but they’re likely to qualify if they play up to potential. The backcourt is great, with Mr. Clutch Geo Baker and veteran Ron Harper Jr. And 6-11, 255-pound center Myles Johnson gives Rutgers a shot-blocker and rebounder in the middle. The Scarlet Knights will have to learn to win away from home, as they were 2-10 away from the RAC last season, but if they do that, they could be a darkhorse for a Big Ten title.
No. 6 Michigan
The Wolverines turned in one of the more up-and-down seasons in 2019-20, starting the year 7-0 before running into some troubles during the Big Ten. They finished 10-10, likely on the good side of the bubble had the NCAA Tournament been played.
Juwan Howard has a couple returning starters in forwards Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers. But the two departures (point Zavier Simpson and center Jon Teske) are big ones, not only because of their own productivity, but because of questions about how they’ll be replaced. The Wolverines don’t have an obvious answer at point; the options will be off-guard Eli Brooks and Columbia transfer Mike Smith. At center, look for heralded rookie Hunter Dickinson to get plenty of opportunities.
7. Purdue
The Boilermakers were hoping they’d be able to turn to Trevion Williams and Eric Hunter Jr. for veteran leadership and on-court production this season. Williams should be fine, especially if he’s a more consistent offensive threat in his third season in West Lafayette. But Hunter starts the season on the bench, as he recovers for the next 6 weeks or so from a knee injury.
Sasha Stefanovic and Aaron Wheeler are also returning starters, as Purdue tries to push past the offseason departures of Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern. But to do that, and get off the NCAA bubble (last season, Purdue was 16-15 overall, 9-11 in the Big Ten), Matt Painter will need contributions from five freshmen, including combo guard Jaden Ivey and redshirt wing Brandon Newman.
No. 8 Indiana
The Hoosiers were a fringe NCAA Tournament team last season — IU probably would have been in, but we’ll never know for sure — but want to make a jump forward this season.
To do so, Archie Miller’s team needs to shoot the ball better and defend. Not sure if IU’s offseason moves make the Hoosiers better in either of those categories. But IU has weapons up front, mainly sophomore Trayce Jackson-Davis, who can line up with anybody in the league. Joey Brunk is a physical center, and Race Thompson and Jerome Hunter give Miller versatile frontcourt options.
But what the Hoosiers need is returning backcourt starters Al Durham and Rob Phinisee to take a step forward and give the Hoosiers more consistent perimeter scoring. Maybe heralded freshman Khristian Lander, a 5-star guard who reclassified so he could enroll at IU a year early, will help as well.
No. 9 Ohio State
Chris Holtmann will have to replace Kaleb Wesson, the big man who was so integral to everything that the Buckeyes did the last couple of seasons, both offensively and defensively. But the Buckeyes have a lot of productive players returning, including the backcourt of CJ Walker and Duane Washington Jr. along with versatile forward Kyle Young.
OSU needs to see the continued development of sophomore forward E.J. Liddell, who showed flashes as a freshman. And then there’s Seth Towns, the former AP All-America forward at Harvard two seasons ago who hasn’t played in the last two years due to a lingering knee injury. Towns is one of several Buckeyes with injury concerns to start this season, but his OSU debut — assuming it does happen — would go a long way toward helping Ohio State at least match their 11-9 Big Ten record of last year.
No. 10 Maryland
You might have to keep the roster nearby to identify the new-look Maryland Terrapins.
Yes, forward Jalen Smith, the 10th overall pick in the NBA Draft, and guard Anthony Cowan Jr. have departed, but so have three other reserves who likely would have taken over larger roles this season.
It’s left Coach Mark Turgeon, who led the Terps to a three-way share of the Big Ten Championship last season, to rebuild.
Holdover Andrew Wiggins, the Big Ten’s Sixth Man of the Year, will be a big help after a season in which he averaged 10.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 28.5 minutes as a part-time starter. Turgeon also hit the transfer market hard, bringing in instant-impact types in Boston College’s Jairus Hamilton and Alabama’s Galin Smith.
No. 11 Minnesota
The Golden Gophers have some nice pieces, but don’t we say that every season? Maybe this is the year that Richard Pitino and Co. start to make a significant move.
With forward Daniel Oturu now in the NBA, more of the offense will run through guard Marcus Carr, who averaged 15.4 points per game in his first season in Minneapolis. Gabe Kalscheur gives the Gophers a second solid perimeter option, a season after he hit 76 3-pointers. But even with that duo, plus Oturu and Payton Willis, who transferred to the College of Charleston, Minnesota could only manage to finish 15-16 overall, 8-12 in the Big Ten.
A trio of transfers — led by center Liam Robbins, a 7-footer who averaged 14 points and seven rebounds at Drake last season — might help Pitino replace the departed.
No. 12 Penn State
The Nittany Lions’ outlook took a hit when coach Pat Chambers resigned following an internal investigation into allegations of inappropriate conduct. Assistant Jim Ferry will serve as the interim head coach, and he inherited a team going through a transition.
Gone are longtime stalwarts Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins, leaders who were poised to take Penn State back to the NCAA Tournament last season with a 21-10 record, 11-9 in the Big Ten. In their place, Ferry will lean heavily on Myreon Jones and Myles Dread, two players who aren’t shy about firing away from the perimeter, and transfer Sam Sessoms, a 19-point scorer in his last season at Binghamton.
But the frontcourt is inexperienced, leading one to wonder if the Lions can defend and rebound.
No. 13 Nebraska
Fred Hoiberg’s rebuilding project continues in Lincoln, a year after the Cornhuskers won only 2 of their 20 Big Ten games and finished the season on a 17-game losing streak.
Hoiberg is trying to turn over his roster as quickly as possible — a project he started a year ago — and only two players, Yvan Ouedraogo and Thorir Thorbjarnarson, return after playing significant minutes last season.
Five players are gone, including the top three scorers, leaving Thorbjarnarson as the top returnee, after the guard averaged 8.8 ppg in 2019-20. But it’s Ouedraogo who the Huskers feel like they can at least start to build around, as it’s hoped the 6-9 forward can take a big leap forward in his second year.
No. 14 Northwestern
A year ago, the Wildcats had a solid young nucleus in Miller Kopp, Boo Buie and Ryan Young that coach Chris Collins thought he could build around.
In Northwestern’s biggest win of the season last year, over No. 20 Penn State in the regular-season finale, the trio combined to score all the Cats’ points in a 19-4 game-deciding run. But that was one of only three B1G victories — against 17 losses — with the other two coming against fellow rebuild project Nebraska.
Of the 17 losses in the league, 9 of them were by double-digits. Perhaps the Wildcats are more competitive in the losses, but they’ll still be losses.
Kyle Charters, a familiar face at Gold & Black, covers Purdue, Indiana and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.