Big Ten betting preview for Day 2 at the NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament is off and running with fans turning to Day 2 of the action on Friday!
Across Day 1, fans were treated to a traditional (but exhilarating) dose of March Madness. Kentucky was downed by 14-seed Oakland with Jack Gohlke coming alive for the game of his life against the Wildcats. Elsewhere, a trio of 11-seeds registered upsets with Duquesne, Oregon and NC State all advancing.
Within the B1G, Michigan State and Illinois moved into the second round of the tournament with Tom Izzo upending a lot of brackets in the process. And, not to toot my own horn, but yours truly went 3-for-3 in my Big Ten betting preview for Thursday.
That brings me to Friday’s preview with 4 games on tap. After revealing 3 predictions on Thursday, I’ve added an extra pick to go with Friday’s action.
Let’s get to it:
9 Northwestern vs. 8 Florida Atlantic | 12:15 p.m. ET | CBS
Led by Boo Buie, Northwestern punched its second straight ticket to the Big Dance. That is program history for the Wildcats in a season when they beat Purdue and Illinois to finish tied for 3rd in the B1G. FAU, the darling of last year’s NCAA Tournament, was able to grab an at-large bid in spite of a disappointing regular season thanks to wins over Arizona and Texas A&M.
Spread: FAU -4.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 143.5 points (via ESPN Bet)
8 Nebraska vs. 9 Texas A&M | 6:50 p.m. ET | TNT
Nebraska is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade after one of the best regular seasons in program history. The Huskers are no fluke offensively with a deep group of shooters and some versatile forwards. Led by March Madness veteran Buzz Williams, Texas A&M is in its second straight NCAA Tournament. The Aggies are led by a pair of dynamic guards with Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford both averaging 16+ points per game.
Spread: Nebraska -1.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 147.5 points (via ESPN Bet)
1 Purdue vs. 16 Grambling State | 7:25 p.m. ET | TBS
After making a serious push for the No. 1 overall seed, Purdue “settled” for a 1-seed, but the Boilermakers earned that spot atop the Midwest Region. Last year’s tournament was a disaster for Purdue, but the program has a chance to put that behind them while playing close to home this time around. Grambling hits the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and has already registered a win in “First Four” action. The Tigers have 4 players averaging double digits but just one player in the normal rotation is listed above 6-foot-7.
Spread: Purdue -27.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 138.5 points (via ESPN Bet)
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 James Madison | 9:40 p.m. ET | CBS
Wisconsin hits the Big Dance after underwhelming down the stretch of the regular season but rebounding with an impressive showing during the B1G Tournament. As a reward, the Badgers get arguably one of the toughest opening round matchups. James Madison started the season with a win over Michigan State in East Lansing, and the Dukes never looked back with 31 wins and a Sune Belt Tournament title.
Spread: Wisconsin -5.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 145.5 points (via ESPN Bet)
3 picks
James Madison +5.5 (via ESPN Bet) vs. Wisconsin
I get it. The Badgers came alive in Minneapolis after a disappointing finish to the regular season, so sometimes the assumption is a team like that is “clicking” at the right time. However, we’ve also seen teams that overachieve in their conference tournaments fall flat in the Big Dance. I’m not saying Wisconsin will lose Friday, but it’s not going to be an easy game. James Madison is not going to be scared of anyone, and the Dukes have a solid makeup. Terrence Edwards Jr. is a bona fide 6-foot-6 star who averages 17 points, 4 rebounds and 3.5 assists. TJ Bickerstaff is a true 6-foot-9 presence in the middle who averages 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds. The Dukes will push this one to the buzzer.
Nebraska -1.5 (via ESPN Bet) vs. Texas A&M
Is this the year Nebraska earns its historic first-ever NCAA Tournament win? I’m banking that it is with a Huskers team that has already beaten Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin and swept Indiana with 3 victories against the Hoosiers. Nebraska also had a big lead against Illinois before going cold late in the B1G Tournament. Meanwhile, the Aggies finished 12th in the SEC in 3-point percentage allowed with opponents shooting 33.9% against A&M this season. That bodes well for the Huskers who shoot 35.8% from deep with 5 players to make 36+ buckets from deep. I have Nebraska as the outright winner here, so the 1.5 points feels like an easy call if the Huskers win. And be sure to track all the future March Madness odds with Tradition’s Ohio betting apps.
Made for March. pic.twitter.com/qNI9NWFmrF
— Nebraska Men’s Basketball (@HuskerMBB) March 21, 2024
Zach Edey OVER 36.5 points + rebounds (via DraftKings)
I understand anyone hesitant to ride with the Boilermakers in March after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year. However, fans need a reminder that the problem in that loss was not Zach Edey. The 7-foot-4 big man played 36 minutes against the smaller FDU lineup and feasted with 21 points, 15 rebounds and 3 blocks while shooting 7-for-11 from the field. The problem in that loss was Purdue’s backcourt shooting 19% from deep. This time around, Edey gets a similar lineup with Grambling’s rotation featuring just one player above 6-foot-7 averaging more than 10 minutes per game. Edey will feast.
Keisei Tominaga OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (via DraftKings)
Tominaga is averaging 2.3 3-point field goals per game this season, and he’s a career 37% shooter from deep across 3 seasons at Nebraska. Revisiting the game prediction from earlier, the Huskers have a shot to catch fire against Texas A&M, and Tominaga is the leading scorer and largest volume shooter from deep for Fred Hoiberg’s team. If Nebraska wants the win, Tominaga will need to deliver in the Big Dance.