Big Ten bowl projections after Week 11: Does an 11-1 Indiana make the Playoff?
Indiana fans are going to have to sweat this one out if they lose to Ohio State. It’s a cruel reality, and Hoosiers fans have the SEC to thank for that.
The Southeastern conference is in the process of eating itself alive. Seven teams are fighting for 4/5 spots, and at least one of Indiana, BYU, SMU, Miami or Notre Dame are going to pay as a result.
The more pressing question is this: Does the CFP committee take 11-1 Indiana with zero “elite” wins over 10-2 Tennessee, Alabama or Georgia? If it were up to me the Hoosiers would be in regardless, but I think realistically Indiana needs one of Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama or Ole Miss to finish with 3 losses in a losing scenario.
Or just erase all doubt and beat Ohio State this weekend. Your call, Hoosiers.
Shifting gears. Does any team in the Big Ten apart from the Playoff contenders actually want to go bowling? It sure doesn’t seem like it. Every single 5-win B1G team heading into Week 11 lost on Saturday. Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan and Nebraska will all have to wait at least one more week before being officially considered bowl eligible – or in other words, they’re all just one win away.
Of course, a few teams entered themselves back into potential bowl eligibility, namely Rutgers and UCLA. The Scarlet Knights’ case is better than the Bruins, but both have very real paths to 6 wins. Let’s break it down.
Rutgers downed Minnesota to snap a 4-game losing streak. Now, they’re just one win away with matchups against Maryland, Illinois and Michigan State on the schedule. In my opinion, Rutgers is going to want to win this Saturday if they want a shot – and I think they’ll do just that.
UCLA came out of nowhere. The Bruins have won 3 straight after losing 5 straight, with all their wins coming against solid B1G competition (Iowa, Nebraska, Rutgers). UCLA should pick up a win against Fresno State, but they’ll also need to grab one of USC/Washington. With how they’re playing right now, that’s more than likely.
One final note: Wisconsin is in danger of missing out on 6 wins entirely. The Badgers looked abhorrent against Iowa to start November, and they’ll have to beat one of Oregon, Nebraska or Minnesota to go bowling. I’m cautiously optimistic they can nab at least one more win this season.
College Football Playoff
Sugar Bowl: Oregon vs. 8/9 winner
Rose Bowl: Texas vs. 7/10 winner
Peach Bowl: Miami vs. 6/11 winner
Fiesta Bowl: BYU vs. 5/12 winner
First Round
From Columbus, Ohio: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Indiana
From Knoxville, Tennessee: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Boise State
From South Bend, Indiana: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Ole Miss
From Tuscaloosa, Alabama: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Penn State
The Rest
Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Georgia
Mayo Bowl: Nebraska vs. Clemson
ReliaQuest Bowl: Minnesota vs. South Carolina
Music City Bowl: Michigan vs. Mizzou
Independence Bowl: Washington vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl: Illinois vs. Syracuse
Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Baylor
Gasparilla Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Virginia Tech
Los Angeles Bowl: UCLA vs. UNLV
Detroit Bowl: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan