Big Ten bowl projections after Week 12: Rutgers, Washington clinch eligibility
Washington and Rutgers joined the 6-win club on Saturday, becoming the 8th and 9th teams in the Big Ten to do so this season. And there are at least 4 to go, by my count.
That says a lot about the parity in the conference this season. There’s a defined group at the top (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State), and a defined group at the bottom (Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland). Everyone else is in No Man’s Land.
UCLA, Wisconsin, Michigan and Michigan State all crack the latest projections with 2 weeks to go despite all currently sitting under 6 wins. Nebraska and USC are on the outside looking in with a reasonable, yet unlikely path to a bowl bid.
UCLA gets USC at home and Fresno State – both games I believe they can and will win. By beating USC, that kicks the Trojans out of the hunt for 5 wins.
The others all have 2 chances against beatable teams with just 1 win necessary, with Nebraska seeming to be the most in danger of missing out. The Huskers have to play Wisconsin and Iowa while the Badgers face the Huskers and Golden Gophers. Wisconsin-Nebraska could very likely decide a bowl bid, so keep an eye on Lincoln, Nebraska this weekend.
At least 2 Big Ten teams currently look like locks to reach the College Football Playoff: Oregon and Ohio State. Penn State is in good shape if they win out, but it has a tough matchup at Minnesota this weekend, no elite wins and will not reach the Big Ten title game for a chance to at a bye. With Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas and Texas A&M all in the mix on the other side, the Nittany Lions don’t have much room for error.
Then there’s Indiana, which has blown out every team it has played this season except for Michigan, where it still picked up a modest win. If the Hoosiers win over Ohio State they are in. If the Hoosiers give Ohio State a good game, they’re likely in. If they lose, however, it might get dicey – especially if they drop a one-sided affair. For now, the Hoosiers are in the field alongside Tennessee as Texas slides out.
Why Texas? A few reasons. For one, the Longhorns have not beaten a team of consequence this season and floundered in their lone game against an elite program (Georgia). The Longhorns also have to travel to College Station to face Texas A&M at the end of the year, a game I believe the Longhorns will lose.
Until next week, college football.
College Football Playoff
Sugar Bowl: Oregon vs. 8/9 winner
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. 7/10 winner
Peach Bowl: Miami vs. 6/11 winner
Fiesta Bowl: Colorado vs. 5/12 winner
First Round
From Columbus, Ohio: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Indiana
From Athens, Georgia: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Boise State
From South Bend, Indiana: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Tennessee
From Oxford, Mississippi: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Penn State
The Rest
Citrus Bowl: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
Mayo Bowl: Iowa vs. Clemson
ReliaQuest Bowl: Minnesota vs. Texas
Music City Bowl: Michigan vs. Mizzou
Independence Bowl: Washington vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Pitt
Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. TCU
Los Angeles Bowl: UCLA vs. UNLV
Detroit Bowl: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan