Oh no, Ohio State. Oh no.

Ohio State seniors are going to leave Columbus having not beaten TTUN. Instead, they received a flag planted at their own stadium and pepper spray to the face for good measure. On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being “guaranteed win” and 1 being “no shot”, I’d have placed Michigan’s chances of winning this game against Ohio State around -3 on Friday.

But OSU fans shouldn’t have to wait long for their future to be revealed. Barring some strange decisions by the committee or some wild results next Saturday, I expect the Buckeyes to face Tennessee in the first round – the real question is whether or not they will host. Projections give the edge to Tennessee based on recent results and the fact that the Vols’ worst loss of the season was on the road against a team similar to the Wolverines.

Indiana, Penn State and Oregon are safely in the field, with the Big Ten Title loser almost certain to host and the champ, obviously, set to claim a first-round bye. I expect Oregon to take care of business against Penn State with relative ease.

Pesky Alabama – yes, the same team that lost to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt – should be in solid shape for a Playoff spot unless the Committee decides to put South Carolina in front based on recent success. And though I agree USC is playing better football right now and would rather see the Gamecocks in the field, head-to-head will likely give Alabama the spot.

Wondering about Miami snagging that last spot? I just don’t think there’s a legitimate argument to be made there. Alabama has 4 better wins than Miami and comparable losses against a tougher schedule. The 11-seed should pretty much be decided Tuesday night so long as SMU beats Clemson in the ACC Championship game to extinguish the possibility of Clemson stealing a bid.

Shifting gears to the Big Ten projections, which saw Michigan State, Wisconsin and UCLA all fall short of claiming 6 wins in Week 14.

I must say, I’m pretty shocked by this development. I expected at least 2 of the 3 to crack 6 wins – instead, none of them did. That means the grand total for the Big Ten in bowl season this year will be 12 teams – 4 Playoff contenders and 8 regular bowl bids.

Since the Pac-12 still has bowl tie-ins to attend to, Washington and USC’s bowl list is fairly limited. USC is projected to face Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl while Washington stays put in last week’s Independence Bowl slot.

Illinois is the top non-Playoff team in the conference, so they’ll be headed to the Citrus Bowl against one of Alabama/Ole Miss or South Carolina. My money is on South Carolina thanks to the Gamecocks being red hot to end the season and openly targeting the Citrus Bowl in the scenario they don’t receive a Playoff bid.

Iowa is on a collision course with the ReliaQuest Bowl, similarly to Minnesota’s track towards the Mayo Bowl against likely Miami or Clemson. That leaves Michigan with the Music City Bowl and Rutgers in the Rate Bowl against a Big 12 opponent.

We’ll learn a lot about the field on Tuesday. Until next week, college football.

College Football Playoff

Sugar Bowl: Oregon vs. 8/9 winner

Rose Bowl: Texas vs. 7/10 winner

Peach Bowl: SMU vs. 6/11 winner

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. 5/12 winner

First Round

From Happy Valley, Pennsylvania: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 12 Arizona State

From South Bend, Indiana: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Alabama

From Athens, Georgia: No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Indiana

From Knoxville, Tennessee: No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Ohio State

The Rest

Citrus Bowl: Illinois vs. South Carolina

Mayo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Miami

ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Ole Miss

Music City Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU

Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Baylor

Independence Bowl: Washington vs. Navy

Sun Bowl: USC vs. Georgia Tech

Pinstripe Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boston College