Big Ten Championship Game: Examining potential matchups, tiebreaker scenarios
The Big Ten Championship Game is Dec. 7 in Indianapolis. With 2 weeks left in the regular season, the race to the title game is still undecided.
Coming out of Tuesday in Week 13, we have on side of the matchup confirmed. The B1G confirmed in a press release that Oregon has clinched its spot in the title game after a “comprehensive evaluation” of the tiebreaking protocols.
There was a scenario where the B1G produced a 4-way tie for first place with Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana still capable of finishing at 8-1 in league play. However, the league’s review of the new tiebreaking protocols involving 3+ teams means the Ducks are guaranteed a spot in Indy, even if they lose to the Huskies in the final week of the regular season.
There is also a clear-cut scenario for Indiana to reach the title game with an undefeated record entering Week 13. The Hoosiers can un-complicate the process by simply winning the final 2 games of the season.
The problem with that is Indiana must travel to Ohio State this weekend, a game where the Hoosiers are currently a 12-point underdog per bet365. (Fans can use Tradition’s Ohio sports betting apps to get in on the action.)
So, what is the most likely path to Indy for the remaining trio of contenders between Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State? Let’s dive in with 2 weeks to go.
Obviously, multiple upset losses render this exercise moot, but let’s explore the most likely potential scenarios in play and who would advance to Indianapolis for the title game.
3-way tie for 2nd place
- Indiana loses to Ohio State, beats Purdue, finishes 8-1
- Ohio State beats Indiana, Michigan, finishes 8-1
- Penn State beats Minnesota, Maryland, finishes 8-1
This scenario is pretty straightforward. With the Ducks advancing as the top seed and the only remaining undefeated team in the B1G, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes can clear up any confusion by winning their remaining games.
If these results play out, the most likely scenario based on which teams are favored in the remaining games, Ohio State would advance for a rematch vs. Oregon. While Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana would all hold 1 loss, the Buckeyes hold the head-to-head tie-breaker against the other 2 teams.
RELATED: Be sure to track the latest 2024 Big Ten Championship odds with Tradition’s best Michigan online sports betting links and apps.
Penn State, Indiana 2-way tie for 2nd, Scenario #1
- Indiana beats Ohio State, loses to Purdue, finishes 8-1
- Penn State beats Minnesota, Maryland, finishes 8-1
Ohio State’s path to Indianapolis is pretty clear: Don’t lose a 2nd game. Finishing 7-2 would automatically drop the Buckeyes behind an 8-1 Indiana and an 8-1 Penn State team.
So, who gets the edge in a tie-breaker between Penn State and Indiana? In this scenario, the Hoosiers would get the tie-breaker over the Nittany Lions with the common-opponent win over Ohio State, an opponent Penn State lost to earlier in the season.
Of course, losing to Ohio State would not automatically eliminate the Hoosiers from the picture with one game remaining, which leads us to…
Penn State, Indiana 2-way tie for 2nd, Scenario #2
- Ohio State beats Indiana, loses to Michigan, finishes 7-2
- Indiana loses to Ohio State, beats Purdue, finishes 8-1
- Penn State beats Minnesota, Maryland, finishes 8-1
This would be the worst possible outcome for Ohio State fans on multiple levels. The Buckeyes losing to archrival Michigan for a 4th straight season, even with the win over the Hoosiers, would knock Ohio State out of the picture with 2 losses.
Meanwhile, Indiana would recover from that loss to the Buckeyes with a win over Purdue to finish an improbable season at 8-1 in the B1G. Penn State holding serve in its final 2 games of the season would lead to another head-to-head tie with Indiana.
However, this scenario does not include a common-opponent tie-breaker with both IU and Penn State holding a loss to the Buckeyes. In this scenario, the tie-breaker would shift to the winning percentage of conference opponents.
That formula would put Penn State into the title game with a 0.4085 conference opponent winning percentage that trumps Indiana’s 0.3571. However, it’s hard to see that being a net negative for the Hoosiers.
At the risk of speculating on the Playoff committee (an admittedly dangerous task), it’s hard to envision an 11-1 Indiana team with a loss to Ohio State getting left out of the Playoff. That assumes 10 dominant wins (including Purdue), a close win over reigning national champion Michigan and a loss to one of the top teams in the country to the Buckeyes.
We’ll see how it all plays out, but there is plenty to ponder and chew on as we get set for Week 13.