Big Ten Spotlight: Northwestern is in Big Ten title game, which might be very bad for Michigan
There’s no need to rain on Northwestern’s parade, not today. The Wildcats have won their first Big Ten West title and they’re off to their first Big Ten Championship Game. Good for them.
“It was a pretty cool moment,” Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson said Saturday after beating Iowa 14-10 and then learning from coach Pat Fitzgerald that both Wisconsin and Purdue had lost, thus clinching the division.
The news set off a big celebration, which was much deserved — and very unexpected. The Wildcats weren’t supposed to be celebrating any titles, not this year. This was supposed to be Wisconsin’s division, or maybe Iowa’s or Purdue’s as the season wound on.
But it was the Wildcats who kept winning every Big Ten game that mattered. They’re 6-1 in the Big Ten and have won seven straight league road games over the last two years. In Big Ten West showdowns this year, they ran the table, beating Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue and Nebraska, even when they weren’t supposed to.
They are among the nation’s worst in yards per play, and they went 0-3 in nonconference games to Duke, Akron and Notre Dame. Heck, they lost to Akron by giving up 36 second-half points. Even their conference win against Nebraska, which was 0-5 at the time, required a 99-yard touchdown drive to send the game to overtime.
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Northwestern hasn’t won the Big Ten since 2000, but now they have a chance. They still don’t know their opponent in the Dec. 1 game in Indianapolis, but it’s down to Michigan and Ohio State now. They’ll settle that on Nov. 24 in Columbus. Michigan is ranked No. 4 in the country and has College Football Playoff aspirations as well. Ohio State has just one loss, but can still win the Big Ten East with a win over Michigan.
What Ohio State — and all of the Big Ten, for that matter — learned last year is the winning the Big Ten title is no guarantee to claim a Playoff spot. Ohio State had two losses last year, including a very bad loss at Iowa.
Northwestern, with its four losses, isn’t making the playoffs even if it wins the Big Ten. And it might be an even bigger problem for Michigan or Ohio State that it’s Northwestern waiting for them in the title game. There is really no way to give the Playoff selection committee one last impressive win if four-loss Northwestern is the opponent.
Let’s focus briefly on Ohio State. Say the Buckeyes do beat Michigan and win the Big Ten East. That quality win might help, but a win over Northwestern does them no good, not unless there’s total carnage around the rest of college football. A one-loss Ohio State team might still get left out, because the 29-point to a Purdue team that is now 5-5 looks very bad.
But enough of that, because I still think this is the year Michigan finally gets past Ohio State anyway. I think Michigan does win that game, and wins the Big Ten title game, too.
And then they still might have a problem getting into the Playoffs. The committee isn’t going to think much about them beating a four-loss team, either.
If unbeatens Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame all win out and Michigan does the same, then that’s your likely final four teams. Compared to the other one-loss teams, Michigan has the best resume, because the only loss is to that unbeaten Notre Dame team.
But here’s the rub. On conference championship Saturday, let’s say No. 5 Georgia upsets No. 1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. If they do that, they’re in the Playoffs, without question. They will pass Michigan by with that resume-building win. Michigan won’t get that chance on championship Saturday. You can’t build a resume with a win over a four-loss team, especially one you already beat this year.
So how far down would Alabama fall if the Crimson Tide lost to Georgia? When the selection committee sits down and compares a one-loss Alabama to one-loss Michigan, how will the resumes stand up? That might be a tough one.
Is it possible that Michigan could run the table, win 12 games in a row and STILL get shut out of the playoffs? It sure is.
That’s why Michigan has a two-pronged set of goals going forward. Yes, winning all their games comes first, but then they are also big Alabama fans the rest of the way, too. Alabama beating Georgia would be a huge help.