Big Ten Tournament Day 1 preview: Full schedule, best bets

The Big Ten Basketball Tournament will officially get underway on Wednesday with a pair of intriguing matchups.

Rutgers will take on Maryland while Michigan is set to battle Penn State. All 4 of those teams will likely need to run the table at the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance.

Here’s a look at the slate for Day 1 at the Big Ten Tournament followed by a couple of picks:

Game 1: No. 13 Rutgers vs. No. 12 Maryland – 5:30 p.m. CT (Peacock)

Rutgers and Maryland have both endured disappointing seasons and are well off of the NCAA Tournament bubble. The loser of this game will almost surely be eliminated from postseason contention, although it’s possible the Terps could earn a spot in the NIT. These teams split their regular-season matchups, with each road team coming away with the win. Maryland held Rutgers to just 46 points on the road back on Feb. 25.

Spread: Maryland -3.5

Total: 125.5 points

Game 2: No. 14 Michigan vs. No. 11 Penn State – 25 minutes following Game 1 (Peacock)

This will be the end of the line for one of these teams. Michigan has been one of the worst power-conference teams in the country all season while the Nittany Lions have battled some growing pains in Year 1 under Mike Rhoades. Penn State defeated Michigan in Philadelphia earlier this season.

Spread: Penn State -6.5

Total: 150.5 points

1 pick against the spread

Penn State -6.5. Michigan is an abysmal 8-23 against the spread this season and has lost 18 of its last 10 games overall. Most of those losses have been non-competitive — only 1 of the last 8 have been by single-digits. On the other side, Penn State has covered the spread in 4 of its last 5 games and is 13-6-1 ATS against Big Ten opposition this season. This will be the first time all season that Penn State is a favorite away from home against a Big Ten opponent.

Michigan’s defense has been dreadful since mid-January. It has given up at least 1.1 points per possession in 11 of its last 14 games. Per BartTorvik, Michigan’s opponent-adjusted defensive rating is 218th nationally. Penn State’s offense ranks 73rd in the country over that same span. FanDuel is offering Penn State -6.5 at -110.

1 player prop

Dug McDaniel over 14.5 points. McDaniel has consistently Michigan’s best offensive option this season and leads the team with a 25.2% usage rate. In 4 games since Olivier Nkamhoua had season-ending surgery, McDaniel is averaging 15.8 field goal attempts per game (up from 13.7 in Big Ten play). He has not been particularly efficient (50.5% true shooting) with those added opportunities, but he’s still Michigan’s best option on the perimeter. Penn State’s defense is nothing special — it ranks 100th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom — so I like McDaniel to get to at least 15 points in this game. FanDuel has this prop priced at -110.

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