ESPN’s FPI is leaning heavily to one side of the B1G matchup between Maryland and Penn State in Week 11.

FPI gives Penn State a 78.1% chance to defeat the Maryland Terrapins in Happy Valley. The two teams last met in 2021, when the Nittany Lions took down the Terrapins 31-14.

The 6-3 Terrapins sport a high-powered offense led by QB Taulia Tagovailoa. The Terps average 31.4 points per game and 424.9 yards per game.

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The 7-2 Nittany Lions also sport an impressive offense, averaging 34.4 points per game, led by QB Sean Clifford. The Nittany Lion offense is averaging 436.7 yards per game.

These two offenses are evenly-matched. Penn State is ranked 35th in total offense, while Maryland comes in ranked 43rd.

On defense, the Terps allow an average of 377.4 yards per game, with 239.7 of those being through the air. The Nittany Lions are allowing 362.2 yards per game, with 235 of those through the air.

Scoring defense is the stat that truly separates these teams. The Nittany Lions are 26th in the stat, allowing 21.1 points per game. The Terps are ranked 48th, allowing 24.0 points per game.

This could easily become a high-scoring shootout. Neither defense locks down the opposing offense, and both teams can move the ball through the air. ESPN’s FPI clealry thinks the Penn State offense will be too much for the Maryland defense.

With a win, Penn State would improve to 8-2 overall and 5-2 overall.