ESPN’s FPI is not as high on one potential College Football Playoff team as others are.

FPI currently projects Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and Ohio State to be the 4-team Playoff field. Notably, USC is not included in that list. That is because FPI is giving Utah a 61.2% chance of defeating USC for the Pac-12 Championship. A loss in the Pac-12 Championship all but guarantees the Trojans would be leapfrogged by either the Buckeyes or Alabama.

The Trojans are being given just a 19.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff, compared to the Buckeyes’ 71.7% chance. Georgia gets 100%, Michigan gets 99%, and TCU gets 92%. Alabama gets a 14.1% chance, but seems unlikely to get in without reaching the SEC Championship and having 2 losses.

The FPI favors the Bulldogs to win the National Championship, with a 39.8% chance. Next are the Wolverines who get a 26% chance. Interestingly, the Buckeyes have the 3rd-best odds to win the National Championship with a 19.3% chance.