ESPN's FPI predicts CFP field entering Championship Weekend
ESPN’s FPI is not as high on one potential College Football Playoff team as others are.
FPI currently projects Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and Ohio State to be the 4-team Playoff field. Notably, USC is not included in that list. That is because FPI is giving Utah a 61.2% chance of defeating USC for the Pac-12 Championship. A loss in the Pac-12 Championship all but guarantees the Trojans would be leapfrogged by either the Buckeyes or Alabama.
The Trojans are being given just a 19.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff, compared to the Buckeyes’ 71.7% chance. Georgia gets 100%, Michigan gets 99%, and TCU gets 92%. Alabama gets a 14.1% chance, but seems unlikely to get in without reaching the SEC Championship and having 2 losses.
The FPI favors the Bulldogs to win the National Championship, with a 39.8% chance. Next are the Wolverines who get a 26% chance. Interestingly, the Buckeyes have the 3rd-best odds to win the National Championship with a 19.3% chance.