ESPN’s FPI has predicted the race to the College Football Playoff, and things have taken an interesting turn at the top of the rankings.

Despite Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson continuing to win, the odds of those teams making the Playoff have actually dipped since the end of Week 2. The culprit for that drop appears to be the performance of the second group of teams behind the top competitors.

Coming out of Week 2, just 8 teams were given at least 10% odds of making the Playoff. Following Week 3, 11 teams were given at least a 13% shot of making the Playoff.

According to the Football Power Index, 5 teams also have at least a 30% shot at making the field of four, including 2 teams each from the B1G and SEC entering Week 4. We’ll see how these odds shape up throughout conference play, but it is an interesting start to the season.

  • Georgia – 80.3%
  • Alabama – 75.8%
  • Ohio State – 67.8%
  • Clemson – 35.8%
  • Michigan – 31%
  • USC – 19.7%
  • Oklahoma – 17.6%
  • Texas – 15.7%
  • Penn State – 15.2%
  • Tennessee – 13.6%
  • Ole Miss – 13.4%