ESPN's FPI predicts outcome of every game on Oregon's 2024 schedule

ESPN’s Football Power Index has been predicting the results of the college football season through win probabilities. That includes Oregon, a program projected to be one of the best in the Big Ten and the entire country this fall.

The FPI has Dan Lanning’s squad No. 2 in the entire country ahead of the season. Oregon generated a rating of 24.5 by the system, making the Ducks 1 of 2 programs with a rating north of 23 at the start of the year. (Georgia, the No. 1 team on the FPI, has a rating of 26.8.)

The Ducks are just about a lock to reach the new 12-team version of the College Football Playoff. The FPI is projecting the Ducks to have a final record of 10.8-1.8 with a 76% chance of reaching the Playoff.

Such lofty expectations give Oregon a favorable outlook in the game-by-game projections. The Ducks are favored in all 12 regular season games with just 2 games falling shy of a 70% win probability. (A visit from Ohio State and a road trip to face Michigan.)

It adds up to the FPI giving Oregon a 14.9% chance of winning out and finishing the regular season at 12-0. That percentage is tied with Notre Dame for the best shot to go undefeated in the country.

To little surprise, Oregon is among the top teams in the preseason 2024 Big Ten Championship odds produced by FanDuel. The Ducks are +200 and trail only Ohio State (+145) for the top spot prior to Week 1. Those two teams will meet head-to-head in October.

Here are the full game-by-game win probabilities that the FPI is giving to Oregon:

Aug. 31: vs. Idaho — 99%
Sept. 7: vs. Boise State — 92.6%
Sept. 14: at Oregon State — 87%
Sept. 28: at UCLA — 87.8%
Oct. 4: vs. Michigan State — 96.4%
Oct. 12: vs. Ohio State — 65.8%
Oct. 18: at Purdue — 89.9%
Oct. 26: vs. Illinois — 95.6%
Nov. 2: at Michigan — 65.5%
Nov. 9: vs. Maryland — 92.6%
Nov. 16: at Wisconsin — 82.7%
Nov. 30: vs. Washington — 89.5%