ESPN’s SP+ metric is projecting nine teams from the Big Ten to reach the required six wins for bowl eligibility.

But how likely is it for each team to reach that benchmark?

Here’s SP+’s projections:

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  • Ohio State 99.9%
  • Wisconsin 99.5%
  • Penn State 98%
  • Iowa 96%
  • Minnesota 94%
  • Michigan 94%
  • Indiana 80%
  • Nebraska 74%
  • Maryland 66%
  • Michigan State 47%
  • Purdue 38%
  • Northwestern 36%
  • Illinois 18%
  • Rutgers 18%

Per SP+, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois and Rutgers are all expected to fall short of bowl eligibility this season.

Meanwhile, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan are virtual locks to make it to six wins.

SP+ believes Ohio State and Wisconsin are the top teams in the conference, with both programs expected to comfortably clear nine wins during the regular season.

On the other hand, SP+ is expecting Northwestern to take a significant step back. The Wildcats are coming off a B1G West title, but their lack of returning production lands them near the bottom of the projected Big Ten standings.

The first Big Ten game of the season is on Saturday as Illinois hosts Nebraska.