Just like last season, the Tradition staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.

The records through Week 1:

  • Paul: 6-3-1
  • Derek: 5-4-1
  • Ethan: 4-5-1
  • Spenser: 2-7-1

Let’s get to it.

(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)

Arkansas at No. 16 Oklahoma State (-7.5) 

Spenser Davis: I’m not particularly high on either of these programs this season, but they both looked pretty good in Week 1 against FCS opposition. With that being said, OK State had a much tougher assignment last week and I think it will be more prepared for this game. PICK: Oklahoma State 

Paul Harvey: Bobby Petrino’s return to Arkansas was a wonderful honeymoon phase. Real life for the Razorbacks returns this weekend with a tough road trip coming a bit too early for this team to seriously compete. PICK: Oklahoma State 

Derek Peterson: While there is probably quite a gap between the FCS team the Pokes faced and the FCS team the Hogs faced, it’s still pretty difficult to go 10-for-10 scoring touchdowns on your offensive possessions. Arkansas averaged 9.8 yards per play in Bobby Petrino’s debut and never let off the gas. The Cowboys are 19-13-1 against the spread at home over the last 5 seasons, but 12 of those ATS losses have come as a home favorite. I think there will be plenty of points, but I didn’t see enough from the OSU defense in Week 1 to suggest it’ll be able to run away from the Razorbacks. PICK: Arkansas 

Ethan Stone: This is my risky pick of the week but give me Arkansas. I liked what I saw from the Razorbacks in Week 1 against an admittedly overmatched opponent. At the very least, I think they can cover. PICK: Arkansas  

No. 3 Texas (-7.5) at No. 10 Michigan 

SD: I think Texas is really good, but I love getting this Michigan team plus more than a touchdown at home. This number was as low as Texas –3.5 at some books this summer. I’m not scared off by what I saw last week against Fresno State. The Wolverines are still awesome on defense and I think they can move the ball enough offensively to hang in there against the Longhorns. PICK: Michigan 

PH: Siding with a road favorite (especially one favored by more than a touchdown) does not traditionally work well in top-10 matchups. But if we’re honest, Michigan is only a top-10 team because of last season. On the other hand, the Longhorns are the real deal. PICK: Texas 

DP: What was at one time a pick ’em in the offseason has become a touchdown difference because Texas rolled over Colorado State with its offense (52-0) and Michigan manhandled Fresno State with its defense (30-10). Michigan only missed covering its Week 1 spread by a couple of points. And now the Wolverines get home cooking for a massive game. The plan is obvious for the Wolverines: run the ball, control the clock, take away the play-action element of the passing game for Quinn Ewers. If Donovan Edwards is going to continue to struggle, Kalel Mullings needs to stay hot. But I think we might see more Alex Orji in this game as Michigan tests its luck against the remade interior of the Texas defensive line. At 7.5, I like Michigan. PICK: Michigan   

ES: This is my “overrated bowl,” but they’re two different levels of overrated in my opinion. Michigan lost so much and they looked questionable against Fresno State with Davis Warren leading the way. I think Texas is still good, but I’m not sure I’m ready to call them a real title contender given how much they lost offensively. Either way, give me Texas by a few touchdowns. PICK: Texas

Baylor at No. 11 Utah (-14) 

SD: Cam Rising is back, and that’s enough for me to take the Utes. Here’s something else: In the Kyle Whittingham era, Utah is 29-15-1 against the spread when favored 14 or more points. PICK: Utah 

PH: Dave Aranda resumed defensive play-calling duties while on a hot seat at Baylor in Week 1. It’s unclear if that will make a difference over the course of the season, but I’ll take a chance with the large line against Utah. PICK: Baylor 

DP: Utah has a 19-11 ATS record at home in the last 5 seasons. Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the better venues in the sport. I don’t have a great feel for Baylor after mashing Tarleton State, but I do know what I’m getting from this Utah team when healthy. PICK: Utah 

ES: I’ve got Utah as my team coming out of the Big 12 so long as Cam Rising stays healthy, and I’m not sure Baylor is any competition here in Salt Lake. Excuse me while I feverously knock on wood. PICK: Utah 

Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa (-2.5) 

SD: Everyone’s excited about Cade McNamara’s performance in Week 1. My issue is that he still only averaged 8 air yards per attempt, according to PFF. That’s 74th out of all FBS quarterbacks with at least 20 drop-backs in Week 1. Iowa State is a lot better than Illinois State. PICK: Iowa State 

PH: At the risk of overreacting to Iowa’s offensive performance in Week 1, I think the Hawkeyes are the drastically better team (including offensively) in the Cy-Hawk showdown with Iowa State. Considering Iowa State has scored more than 17 points in this game since 2017, I definitely like the Hawkeyes in Kirk Ferentz’s return to the sidelines. PICK: Iowa 

DP: For years, the Cy-Hawk Series has alternated. A big Iowa win in 2016, then a 3-point game in 2017. A double-digit Iowa win in 2018, then a 1-point game. A double-digit Iowa win in 2021, then a 3-point game. Last year, the Hawkeyes won by 7. This game will probably be decided by something stupid, and that’s Iowa’s happy place. One half of good football is not enough yet to buy Iowa’s offensive reformation. Still, at 2.5 I can play a field goal victory. So I’ll lean that direction. PICK: Iowa  

ES: Does… does Iowa have a semblance of an offense? It’s hard for me to believe, but with this game being at Iowa I lean Cade McNamara and Co. PICK: Iowa 

South Carolina at Kentucky (-10) 

SD: I usually like to buy in on teams who underperform in Week 1, but I can’t get there with this South Carolina team. The Gamecocks didn’t have a real touchdown drive against Old Dominion last weekend. They found the end zone twice, but only on extremely short fields (3 yards and 6 yards, respectively). South Carolina averaged 3.6 yards per play against the Monarchs. I’ll lay the 10 points here. PICK: Kentucky  

PH: An early-season SEC showdown between 2 teams we still don’t know a lot about. The fact the Gamecocks gave up 23 points to Old Dominion certainly has me worried, so I’ll side with the team holding a distinct edge at QB. That would be the Wildcats with Brock Vandagriff. PICK: Kentucky 

DP: Kentucky posted a havoc rate of 29% in its opener against Southern Miss. The Wildcats had 2 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, and 11 total quarterback pressures. They picked off 2 passes and stonewalled the run game. Special teams were good. The field was significantly tilted in Kentucky’s favor. South Carolina stands no chance if that happens again, and I don’t know how the Gamecocks prevent it given what we saw from the offense in Week 1. PICK: Kentucky

ES: I don’t know if y’all watched South Carolina last week, but they looked even worse than you heard against a bad Old Dominion team. Raheim Sanders is a lot of fun, but that’s about where the positives end. This being at Kentucky, I expect a blowout by a UK team that I think is underrated. PICK: Kentucky 

No. 19 Kansas (-5) at Illinois 

SD: I’m a massive believer in Andy Kotelnicki and give him a lot of credit for what Kansas was in 2023. Now that he’s at Penn State, I think the Jayhawks have a much lower floor — and thus are overrated in the market. I’ll take the home team plus the points. PICK: Illinois 

PH: Jalon Daniels was the catalyst to a Kansas win in this matchup last season, and it looks like Daniels is healthy heading into the weekend. Illinois’ defense has improved from last season, but not enough to swing this matchup. PICK: Kansas 

DP: Kansas was a road favorite 3 times last season. Before that, it hadn’t happened since 2009. This is unusual terrain for the Jayhawks, and as Spenser mentioned above, former offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was a big part of that shift. Kansas didn’t need to think about his absence in its opener against Lindenwood. I think it’ll be felt on the road against Illinois. PICK: Illinois  

ES: Ultimately, Jalon Daniels is the better quarterback and I’ll almost always go with the squad that has the better man under center. Give me Kansas to cover. PICK: Kansas 

Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5) 

SD: Matt Rhule’s programs at Temple and Baylor made big leaps in Year 2. I think that history will repeat itself in Lincoln this year, and I think it starts this weekend with a blowout win over the Buffs. PICK: Nebraska 

PH: The old Big 12 rivalry is my personal Game of the Week, even if Matt Rhule and Deion Sanders aren’t interested in providing bulletin board material this year. I have the Huskers as the more complete team, but the offensive potential of Colorado keeps this one close all game long. It will be Nebraska outright in one that comes down to the wire Saturday night. PICK: Colorado 

DP: Bill Connelly’s SP+ has this as a 10-point Nebraska win. That’s pretty close to the gut feel I get when I look at both profiles. But as someone who has followed Nebraska closely for some time, there’s quite a bit of scar tissue built up from games Nebraska should have dominated, in some ways did dominate, and still managed to lose. Without putting too much on the young freshman, Dylan Raiola feels like the biggest change agent to come through Lincoln in a while. Nebraska can beat Colorado with its defense. If the Huskers don’t turn the football over, they win this with some room. PICK: Nebraska 

ES: Dylan Raiola looks a little Mahomey out there. I’m sorry. Seriously though, I think Nebraska could destroy Coach Prime and a Colorado defense that is… suspect to put it nicely. PICK: Nebraska 

No. 14 Tennessee (-8) vs. No. 24 NC State   

SD: I don’t think the market has caught on to just how good Nico Iamaleava is yet. I’m a little nervous picking a freshman against a Tony Gibson defense, but I’m riding the wave. I think the Vols win big here and make a statement in Charlotte. PICK: Tennessee 

PH: This one comes in a neutral-site setting, removing some of my concerns for the performance of redshirt freshman QB Nico Iamaleava with the Vols. His growing pains will come. Just not this week. PICK: Tennessee 

DP: Money is flowing in on Tennessee to beat NC State, shooting this line up to 10 at some books. Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite was something I highlighted earlier in the week, but with the line moving, the Vols -5.5 in the first half made my best bets. Given the way Nico Iamaleava looked in Week 1, and given the way the NC State defense looked without Wilson, it’s possible 10 points still isn’t enough and Tennessee rolls. But 2 things are worth considering. Tony Gibson is a pretty good coordinator to have against a young quarterback. Grayson McCall’s experience should come in handy particularly in a spot like this. But at 8 points, I’m siding with the Vols. PICK: Tennessee   

ES: NC State was completely pushed around at the line of scrimmage by Western Carolina. I think Tennessee could win by 3 touchdowns here. PICK: Tennessee 

App State at No. 25 Clemson (-17.5) 

SD: Clemson isn’t a national title contender as currently constructed. So why is a solid App State team getting 17 and the hook in this spot? Under Shawn Clark, the Mountaineers are 2-0 against the spread as underdogs of 14 or more points. In both cases they beat the number by double digits and they won outright in 1 instance. I think this number is too high. PICK: App State 

PH: Clemson was blown out by Georgia. But if I may, that result is getting blown out of proportion a bit. Dabo Swinney’s program is not the same one it used to be, but this game doesn’t strike me as one designed to trip up the Tigers. PICK: Clemson 

DP: App State covers this number. Clemson should win the football game, but there are too many offensive issues to sort out to think the Tigers are going to blow the doors off the Mountaineers. PICK: App State   

ES: Despite Clemson getting boat-raced by the Bulldogs, I still think the Tigers are a solid team. Oregon suffered the same fate last season and was still a contender for the CFP. I see this one as a get-right game for the Tigers. PICK: Clemson 

Boise State at No. 7 Oregon (-19.5) 

SD: I’m not hitting the panic button on Oregon yet. The Ducks are a little banged up right now, but I think they can still cover this line against a really good Boise team. The scare against Idaho last week should be enough to make sure everyone is ready for this Week 2 challenge. Dan Lanning as a favorite of 14 or more points: 10-2 against the spread. PICK: Oregon 

PH: Boise State may have its shot to reach the Playoff as a Group of 5 representative. But the defense gave up 45 points to Georgia Southern, and it’s safe to say Oregon is looking for a statement after Week 1. The Ducks will go for the throat early in this one. PICK: Oregon 

DP: Boise State gave up 45 points to Georgia Southern in its opener and now travels back across 2 time zones to face an angry Oregon team. This game would have been a lot more interesting had Oregon rolled Idaho in Week 1. I think we’ll see a better performance from the offensive line and more ambition from the downfield pass game. The Ducks didn’t have an issue piling up yards in their opener, and the pass game should feast on Boise State. Oregon is profitable as a big favorite and Dan Lanning’s teams have done really well in this kind of spot before, going 6-1 ATS the week after failing to cover. PICK: Oregon 

ES: I like Boise State a lot, y’all. I like Oregon to bounce back similarly to Clemson, but this is a massive spread. I definitely think the Broncos will keep it a 2-score game. PICK: Boise State