The Saturday Tradition staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.

The records through Week 3:

  • Paul: 15–14–1
  • Ethan: 13–16–1
  • Derek: 13–16–1
  • Spenser: 10–19–1

Let’s get to it.

(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)

No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (-8.5) 

Spenser Davis: I like this Illinois team, but the Illini have really struggled to stop the run this season. Dylan Raiola gets all the headlines, but the Huskers have been pretty efficient on the ground to start the year. I think Matt Rhule will lean into that weakness for Illinois and control this game at the line of scrimmage. PICK: Nebraska 

Paul Harvey: It’s possible Illinois is slightly overrated with a win over Kansas the only real test of the season thus far. But the growth of the Illini on defense and in regard to QB Luke Altmyer looks for real. Nebraska looks like the better team to me though in a much more evenly matched game than the line appears. PICK: Illinois 

Derek Peterson: Illinois has already forced 6 interceptions in 3 games. Turnovers loomed large in the 6-point win over Kansas. The Jayhawks gave it away 4 times — once each quarter. The weakness of the defense has been up the gut, but Illinois has a secondary that could present some issues for Dylan Raiola. Nebraska should cover this number based on what we think we know about Matt Rhule’s team, but Bret Bielema has had Nebraska’s number throughout his career and I’m not sure if Nebraska has earned this kind of belief just yet. PICK: Illinois

Ethan Stone: I love Illinois to cover here. The Fighting Illini have a solid secondary that will present Dylan Raiola his first true test. I think Nebraska wins the ground game and they’re just better at the line of scrimmage, so give me Nebraska to win but Illinois to cover. PICK: Illinois 

NC State at No. 21 Clemson (-20.5) 

SD: This line opened Clemson -14 at Circa on Sunday. Then it was announced that Grayson McCall would be replaced by freshman CJ Bailey. Simply put, I don’t think McCall in 2024 is worth that many points against the spread. This NC State team is pretty bad, but a Tony Gibson defense can definitely do some things to confuse Cade Klubnik, too. I think the Wolfpack cover this number. PICK: NC State 

PH: I know the struggles NC State has had so far this season, and the Wolfpack are not great by any means. Clemson can still compete for the ACC title this year, but the Tigers by 3 touchdowns? It might be fair, but I can’t ride with that after their first 2 games. PICK: NC State 

DP: The App State performance looks less and less impressive as we find out more about the Mountaineers. I was encouraged by what I saw from CJ Bailey after NC State lost Grayson McCall in its win last week. Is McCall entirely to blame for NC State’s start? Not necessarily, but his play hasn’t been close to good enough. I think a quarterback switch can inspire some juice, and I trust Tony Gibson, who has been able to give Clemson fits in recent seasons. PICK: NC State 

ES: NC State is even worse than you think at the line of scrimmage. So much so that Western Carolina had them on the ropes, and Tennessee made them look like a high school team. That’s not an exaggeration. Clemson’s offense ain’t Tennessee’s, but I still expect a blowout here. PICK: Clemson 

No. 11 USC (-5.5) at No. 18 Michigan 

SD: I still have some belief in Michigan, but this is a bad matchup for the Wolverines. USC has a defense that’s solid and will have had plenty of time to prepare for the Alex Orji run game. I also have questions about Michigan’s secondary outside of Will Johnson – something that Miller Moss and Lincoln Riley are equipped to exploit. PICK: USC 

PH: Michigan is making a QB change to Alex Orji. Unfortunately, the Wolverines did not give him any meaningful snaps before throwing him into the fire of a conference game against a ranked opponent. So this one ultimately boils down to whether or not Miller Moss finds any level of success against the Michigan defense. And I think he will in Lincoln Riley’s system. PICK: USC 

DP: I like the value on USC at anything under 6.5. Michigan’s quarterback move could cause USC’s defense issues at the point of attack, but I like the USC offense to be able to put points on the Michigan defense. If Wink Martindale blitzes the way he has been, Lincoln Riley and Miller Moss are the perfect counters. And I just don’t see Martindale changing his defensive philosophy. PICK: USC

ES: Give me USC all day. I just don’t think Michigan is very good and the Trojans have an astronomical advantage at quarterback. I’m a little higher on USC than the rest of the country and I expect the Trojans to walk away with this one. PICK: USC  

UCLA at No. 16 LSU (-24) 

SD: Has UCLA quit already? I can’t rule it out. The Bruins are outside the top 100 in opponent-adjusted net EPA, per GameOnPaper. I think LSU’s defense under Blake Baker made some progress last week vs. South Carolina, even if the final score didn’t show it. PICK: LSU 

PH: In case you haven’t seen UCLA football this season, the Bruins are coming off a disastrous home performance where they surrendered 42 points and were carved up by Kurtis Rourke. Now, UCLA gets to travel to Baton Rouge and face Garrett Nussmeier. I understand LSU is coming off a tough road game, but this will not be any sort of challenge for LSU’s passing attack. PICK: LSU 

DP: LSU has some real issues. I don’t trust it right now. Tigers win, but not by this large a number. PICK: UCLA 

ES: I want to pick LSU here, but the Tigers simply have not blown anybody out this year. Nicholls would have covered this spread. South Carolina should have won last week. I don’t expect LSU to lose this thing, but UCLA will cover +24: PICK: UCLA 

Georgia Tech at No. 19 Louisville (-10.5) 

SD: I’m not sure the market has caught up to how good Louisville is yet. The Cardinals are 8th nationally in opponent-adjusted net EPA per play. Tyler Shough finally looks to be healthy and Louisville’s defense has been very impressive as well. Louisville hasn’t played anyone worthwhile yet, but it has been very dominant against the teams on its schedule. Georgia Tech showed it was susceptible to the passing game in its loss to Syracuse. It’s a big number but I think the Cardinals can get there. PICK: Louisville 

PH: Georgia Tech has already played 4 games due to the Week 0 affair in Dublin, and that kind of early season stretch usually catches up to teams at some point. The win over FSU also does not look as nice as it once did. Meanwhile, Louisville is preparing for its first test of the year. The Cardinals might get caught looking ahead to Notre Dame a bit, but they also get this one at home. PICK: Louisville 

DP: This will be Georgia Tech’s fifth game and Louisville’s third game. Louisville goes 4-deep at running back and has a passing game to complement the ground well. I think Louisville can lean on Tech a bit as the game wears on and that’ll open up things for Tyler Shough. Jeff Brohm has been good after a bye week in his career, too. PICK: Louisville

ES: I had to sit on this one. I think the Cardinals are going to be great this year, but this is their first true test after gimme-games against Austin Peay and Jax State. Both teams should be able to run the ball effectively in this one. Defensively, pass game included, I think the Cardinals have the edge – but 10.5 is right on the border with being too large of a spread. I’m not overtly confident with either choice, so I’ll take Georgia Tech to cover. PICK: Georgia Tech 

No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State (-2)

SD: Mike Gundy has a long track record of being great as a home underdog. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread when they’re underdogs at Boone Pickens Stadium. I have some lingering doubts about Cam Rising’s status for this week – and even more about Utah’s ability to move the ball if he can’t play. PICK: Oklahoma State 

PH: Talk about being torn about a pick. This game should be one that goes down to the wire, and that has me leaning in favor of the home team. Even if Cam Rising returns, I think the Cowboys get the slight edge at home. PICK: Oklahoma State  

DP: Over the last 5 years, Oklahoma State is covering the spread inside Boone Pickens Stadium 58% of the time. I’m a little worried about Utah’s injury situation after this line flipped twice during the week. PICK: Oklahoma State

ES: Oklahoma State’s defense is suspect to put it nicely, and Cam Rising is set to be back in action after missing last week. I understand this one is in Stillwater, but give me Utah by 2 possessions. PICK: Utah 

Cal at Florida State (-2.5) 

SD: This will be Cal’s second trip across the country already this season. I like the Golden Bears a lot but I think this is the week Florida State gets a win. The Noles have been banged up on the offensive line, but Jeremiah Byers could be back this week. That should help out this offense quite a bit.  I’ll take FSU. PICK: Florida State 

PH: Cal is 3-0, and that includes a surprising win over Auburn. However, this will be a 2nd trip to the East Coast in the past 3 weeks, and that’s the kind of stuff I think matters when it comes to college teams. It’s fun to have FSU as the country’s punching bag this season, but all fun things must come to an end. PICK: Florida State 

DP: Auburn fans will know, but let me introduce everyone else to Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He’s pretty decent! Mendoza currently ranks fourth among qualified ACC passers in EPA. Cal has some juice. Florida State has been exactly what its record suggests. I’m taking the Bears. PICK: Cal

ES: Sure, Florida State hasn’t played any gimme-games yet this season. Memphis is a candidate for the G5 playoff spot, Georgia Tech is slightly above average and Boston College gave Missouri all they had in Columbia and is genuinely one of the best teams in the conference. There was no Kent State in there, that may be true. Is that an excuse for being 0-3 here? Do you really think so, for a school that had playoff dreams preseason? Cal beat Auburn, they’ve got a serviceable man under center and they’ve thrice understood how it feels to win this season while the Seminoles have not. PICK: Cal 

No. 8 Miami (-16.5) at South Florida 

SD: I have a lot respect for what Alex Golesh is building at USF but I think the Bulls are out-manned this week. I’m not sure how USF blocks Miami on offense and I’m not sure how it stops Cam Ward on defense. I’ll eat the points here and take the Canes to cover. PICK: Miami 

PH: Miami is cruising so far this season, and I don’t believe South Florida has any tricks up its sleeve to throw at the Hurricanes. Sure, it’s a road game for Miami, but it’s not your traditional road game with a short trek to Tampa. The Hurricanes have put themselves in a spot where they can envision big goals this fall. They’ll be focused in Week 4. PICK: Miami 

DP: I’m not totally sold on South Florida yet. Turnovers have played a role in each of the Bulls’ last 2 games and Miami hasn’t really put the ball in danger. I interpreted the Alabama game as the Crimson Tide getting in their own way and then, once it started clicking, it raced away from the Bulls. I think Miami can create distance on the scoreboard early and then lock down. PICK: Miami 

ES: I really like South Florida this year. I also really like Miami, but I feel like this could be a game where the Hurricanes underestimate the environment they’re in. Picking underdogs to cover has been a theme for me thus far this week, so let’s keep it rolling. PICK: USF  

No. 6 Tennessee (-7) at No. 15 Oklahoma 

SD: Oklahoma’s offense has been an abomination to start the season, but a lot of that is due injuries that the Sooners may no longer be suffering from on Saturday. There’s a chance OU will get back its starting center, starting right tackle and 2 starting wide receivers who haven’t played hardly any significant sanps this season. With the market overwhelmingly on Tennessee, I’ll hold my nose and take the points. PICK: Oklahoma 

PH: I’m not sure how to look at this game considering the early season results for both programs and all the storylines in play Saturday night in Norman. However, the Vols strike me as the better team on paper, and they have a better offensive tactician in head coach Josh Heupel. My only concern would be growing pains for Nico Iamaleava. But I think the Vols are built well for this road game. PICK: Tennessee 

DP: I broke this game down in detail here and even after doing that I’m still incredibly torn on which way to lean. I could see Sooner Magic showing up and delivering OU a signature victory; Brent Venables knows Josh Heupel about as well as anyone outside of Tennessee’s facilities could. I could see a close game. I could see Tennessee just doing more of what it has done. I question if Oklahoma can hold up at the line of scrimmage, and I see more avenues to a Tennessee cover. PICK: Tennessee

ES: Tennessee is really, really good. Not to mention, despite him not appearing to care, Josh Heupel is out for blood this Saturday. I just don’t see how Oklahoma is supposed to move the ball consistently given the fact their run game has been non-existent thus far. Vols by 3 touchdowns. PICK: Tennessee 

Michigan State at Boston College (-7) 

SD: Red Bandana Game for Boston College. I don’t really trust Michigan State very much. The Spartans’ offense has been living with a 59% success rate on late downs, per GameOnPaper. That’s comically unsustainable given the rest of its offensive profile. PICK: Boston College 

PH: Both Michigan State and Boston College have shown some flashes through the first 3 weeks of the season. The pick here ultimately boils down to whether or not Aidan Chiles can deliver a clean game. I think he makes a costly mistake at some point, but it will be his arm that keeps the score close late into the fourth. PICK: Michigan State  

DP: I like what the Eagles are doing this season. But I think Aidan Chiles is a difference-maker. PICK: Michigan State

ES: Boston College keeping close with Mizzou is big, even if the Tigers’ woes in the first half were partly self-inflicted. I really like Thomas Castellanos under Bill O’Brien, and he gets the Spartans at home. This one really might end as a push but give me BC by 10. PICK: Boston College