Friday Forecast: Tradition staff picks against the spread for Week 7
The Tradition staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 6:
- Paul: 31–28–1
- Derek: 30–29–1
- Ethan: 28–31–1
- Spenser: 24–35–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via FanDuel. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
No. 16 Utah (-6.5) at Arizona State
Spenser Davis: This line had a sharp move toward Utah after reports surfaced on Thursday that Cam Rising would be returning to the starting lineup for the first time since Week 2. I’ll lay it with the Utes under a touchdown in this spot. PICK: Utah
Paul Harvey: The Sun Devils are off to a hot start, but it’s been far from a spotless run. Arizona State is at home here where the program is 3-0 so far in 2024 and Utah is coming off its first loss of the season in a rough home showing vs. Arizona. The Utes still figure to be a major factor in the Big 12 race but not with another loss. Look for Utah to respond big on the road. PICK: Utah
Derek Peterson: Arizona State gave up more than 4 yards a carry to teams last season. Injuries derailed much of Kenny Dillingham’s debut season, but Arizona State couldn’t really help itself. This year, the Sun Devils are giving up less than 3 yards a carry. When the opponent goes to ground, ASU wins. On the other side, Cam Skattebo is putting together a quietly phenomenal season. I like Arizona State at home for an early defining result in the Dillingham era. PICK: Arizona State
Ethan Stone: Cam Rising is *reportedly* playing Friday. I’m going to trust that it’s for real this time. That doesn’t necessarily mean I think the Utes are going to win decisively, given Arizona State is the best defense they’ve played yet this year. I also don’t love Rising coming back on the road against what I believe is an underrated team. I’m gonna stick with the Sun Devils to keep this one close, and maybe even pull off the upset. PICK: Arizona State
South Carolina at Alabama (-21.5)
SD: I think Alabama has serious defensive issues but South Carolina is not the team to exploit them. The Gamecocks rely on their defense being able to get stops and takeaways. Coming off the Vanderbilt loss, I think we see a big effort from Alabama’s offense and an improved defensive performance as well. I’m not afraid of the hook here. PICK: Alabama
PH: Alabama’s going to score points, but we can’t act like the defense isn’t a serious issue right now. Getting this line over 21 points feels like enough to count on the Gamecocks to score just enough points, even in spite of what we saw from South Carolina against Ole Miss. PICK: South Carolina
DP: Concerns about Alabama’s defense are legit. But South Carolina is not stopping the Alabama offense, and LaNorris Sellers is just not anywhere close to Diego Pavia at this point in his development. Pavia aced every read and hit every throw, and it was still only enough to get the ‘Dores a 5-point win. I don’t see a similar performance this week. I like Alabama in a bounce-back spot. PICK: Alabama
ES: I just don’t know what to make of South Carolina this year. They blow out a great defense at Kentucky then lay an egg against another great defense at home against the Rebels. For what it’s worth, Alabama has struggled considerably more than either of those teams on that side of the ball this season. Despite this being in Tuscaloosa, I think the Gamecocks will be able to find the end zone a few times. Just barely, I’ll take them to cover. PICK: South Carolina
Washington at Iowa (-2.5)
SD: Washington just played the rich man’s version of Iowa in 2024 (Michigan) and did fine with the Wolverines. That was at home and this game will be on the road, but I still like the Huskies here. Washington is still probably too undervalued because of its flukey loss to Rutgers last month. PICK: Washington
PH: Iowa’s lone power conference win so far this season came against Minnesota. Meanwhile, Washington is coming off its best game of the season with a win over Michigan. Travel concerns (and dumb miscues) are present for the Huskies but I don’t trust the Hawkeyes here. PICK: Washington
DP: I don’t know if Cade McNamara is a better quarterback than what Michigan has to offer, but I do know that Kaleb Johnson is a better running back than what Michigan currently has to offer and Iowa’s overall offense has been half a yard better per play than the Wolverines. In Iowa City, I think I’m taking the Hawkeyes. PICK: Iowa
ES: I’ve said from the beginning of the season that Michigan is overrated, but you’ve still got to commend the Huskies for overcoming their solid defense. I think I’ll always find an excuse to bet against the Hawkeyes though. PICK: Washington
No. 1 Texas (-14.5) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma
SD: I think there’s something to be said for the fact that Texas hasn’t faced a competent passing offense yet this season. But I’m not sure that will change this weekend, given that OU will be starting a true freshman quarterback and all indications are that they won’t have any of their top 5 receivers. Both teams coming out of a bye probably favors the better coaching staff – and I think you have to give the edge to Texas in that regard. This line seems quite high for a Red River matchup, but I lean slightly toward Texas in this spot. PICK: Texas
PH: We know Quinn Ewers is back for the Longhorns. We also know Oklahoma is shorthanded at WR and could be in an even worse spot if Deion Burks is unable to go. Even if the Sooner defense can create some havoc, I don’t think it will be enough to keep this one close. PICK: Texas
DP: Know this is done begrudgingly. PICK: Texas
ES: This matchup is so awful for Oklahoma, which is going to make me pick Texas even despite this line in a rivalry matchup. Ewers shouldn’t have an issue moving the ball in his return. Michael Hawkins, on the other hand, has a high probability of being in the torture chamber all afternoon with 5 receivers out. Sorry, Sooners. PICK: Texas
No. 4 Penn State (-4.5) at USC
SD: I’ve not been impressed with USC on either side of the ball in the last few weeks. Penn State, meanwhile, has a very explosive offense and a defense that’s been effective so far this season. It’s a road game, but I’m not sure USC will have a meaningful homefield advantage in this game with 2 losses already on its résumé. PICK: Penn State
PH: Penn State, for as much as I believe in the team this season, is 0-2 ATS in its first 2 Big Ten games. The defense has been nasty against the opponents the Nittany Lions have faced. However, a Lincoln Riley offense will be its biggest test to date. Considering the travel impacts and Nicholas Singleton missing Week 6, I’m going to go with a close one here. PICK: USC
DP: I think USC is going to struggle to score points against the Penn State defense. The Trojans have a protection issue, and Penn State has the means to press that issue. I don’t know that I’d necessarily trust the Penn State offense to cover a touchdown here, but I think the number currently on the market is one you buy. PICK: Penn State
ES: Penn State has the potential to be all over Miller Moss in this one. An even broader problem from the same vein for the Trojans, I think the Nittany Lions have the ability to own the line of scrimmage Saturday. An underrated problem for the Nittany Lions though? They travel west of Morgantown, West Virginia for the first time all season and play at Noon PT against a team that is pissed off from last week. I will be very impressed with Penn State if they cover here. PICK: USC
Cal at No. 22 Pitt (-3.5)
SD: Huge letdown spot for Cal after last week’s heartbreaking loss to Miami. I think Pitt might be a bit overrated at No. 22 in the AP Poll, the Panthers have had a knack for winning fourth-quarter games this year. This will be Cal’s third trip across the country this year as well. PICK: Pitt
PH: Pitt is 5-0 and into the Top 25 while Cal is trying to regroup from its brutally blown lead and meltdown loss vs. Miami. Now, it’s the Bears making the trek across the country, and that puts Cal in a tricky spot. Cal’s 2 losses this season have come by a total of 6 points, but this line is low enough for me. PICK: Pitt
DP: I’m all over the Bears in this spot. I don’t buy Pitt’s 5-0 start. They have struggled with competent competition and have been avoiding a turnover bug while overcoming subpar play on one side of the offensive line. Cal leads the nation in interceptions and has only given the ball away 3 times. The Bears have played well on the road this season, so I’m not worried about them coming back across the country. PICK: Cal
ES: Cal has to be demoralized right now, and as a treat they get to travel all the way back across the country to face another top 25 team. I think Pitt has benefitted from playing some bad secondaries so far, but Cal’s is no better than North Carolina, West Virginia or Cincinnati right now in that department. I think the Panthers can cover comfortably here. PICK: Pitt
No. 2 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 3 Oregon
SD: Everyone was quick to point out that Ohio State hadn’t played anybody yet in September. And then the Buckeyes opened Big Ten play by beating Michigan State and Iowa by a combined score of 73-14. Ohio State looks sharp. I can’t say the same for Oregon. I’ll lay the points here even with this game taking place in Eugene. PICK: Ohio State
PH: If this line gets down to -3, I might feel differently about my pick. At 3.5, I like the Ducks as the home team, even in spite of their home struggles ATS this season. Dan Lanning will have his team ready, and this is the first major road test for Will Howard as Ohio State’s starting QB. I was leaning toward Oregon winning outright here coming into the season, so I’ll ride with the travel impact at least making this one a nail-biter to the end. PICK: Oregon
DP: The question for Ohio State this season is can you win a national championship with Will Howard playing quarterback? That question will get answered this week. Ohio State has a matchup advantage with its receivers going against Oregon’s secondary, but the Ducks’ defensive line will surprise folks. Ohio State has been completely untested, and it hasn’t yet played a complete game. Now it comes across the country to play one of the best teams in the country. I think the Buckeyes hit more chunk plays but the Ducks win the turnover battle and that’s crucial. PICK: Oregon
ES: I think Ohio State is playing better than any team in the country, but if they’re going to lose this regular season I see it being here (looking at you Penn State). The Ducks are by far the most talented team they’ve faced so far this year, and once again I think travel could play a real factor. Dillon Gabriel should finally offer the Buckeyes defense a real test, and I think combined with travel it sways the favor to the Ducks. I think this will be a 3-point game and I lean Oregon outright. PICK: Oregon
No. 9 Ole Miss (-3.5) at No. 13 LSU
SD: What would this line be if Kentucky didn’t convert that 4th-and-forever against Ole Miss? I hate picking against LSU at home (especially at night) but I think Ole Miss may be a bit undervalued here. I think the Rebels are still strong contenders in the SEC and I like them coming off of a loss. PICK: Ole Miss
PH: Ole Miss and LSU delivered one of the best games in the SEC last season. Granted, this year’s game comes in Death Valley, but I’m not sure it’s enough for the Tigers to magically begin getting stops on defense. The focus of Ole Miss should not be a problem with the pressure on after the loss to Kentucky. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: I didn’t overreact to the Kentucky loss and that seemed to be the right course of action given the way Ole Miss looked the very next week. I like the Rebels to have early-down success against the LSU defense, control the pace of the game, and leave Death Valley with a win. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: Love LSU here. The Tigers plus the points at home is hard to ignore against any opponent, especially in a game where I think neither team will have trouble moving the ball. PICK: LSU
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-13.5)
SD: Kentucky’s defense is elite. Much, much better than Alabama’s is right now. What happens when all of Vandy’s third-down conversions dry up? I think this is a good spot to sell high on the Commodores. PICK: Kentucky
PH: I understand the team that pulls off the historic upset usually doesn’t double up with back-to-back shockers. And, to put it gently, I simply don’t care. Let’s throw caution to the wind and see if Vandy can at least keep this thing close. PICK: Vanderbilt
DP: When Kentucky caught Georgia and then Ole Miss, the willingness to sit on the ball and live in a tight ball game made the favorites uncomfortable. Neither handled the early-season stress test well. Vandy has been tested. Vandy has played a ton of close games already, and the Commodores are probably fine playing the kind of game Kentucky wants. No one has been able to blow out Diego Pavia yet, so why would this Kentucky offense be the first to do so? PICK: Vanderbilt
ES: Respect the Commodores. Diego Pavia alone can keep this thing close, even despite Kentucky’s awesome defense. Vanderbilt is just plucky and I don’t see it being blown out by a team that has trouble moving the ball consistently. PICK: Vanderbilt
No. 18 Kansas State (-3.5) at Colorado
SD: The Colorado hype train, at this point in the season, rests entirely upon its surprising win over UCF a couple of weeks ago. But what if UCF is bad? I think that’s very much on the table. I’m not a huge fan of this K-State team but I like the Wildcats in this spot against a Colorado team that might be too over-confident. PICK: Kansas State
PH: Colorado has rallied to become a factor in the Big 12 race. Meanwhile, Kansas State most recently demolished Oklahoma State. The problem is the Wildcats have been a distinctly different team at home compared to on the road. K-State is 0-2 ATS on the road with one outright loss this year. I’m going with that trend in this one. PICK: Colorado
DP: Interestingly, Colorado had the attention when it hadn’t been earned and now that the Buffs have opened the season 4-1, it seems like the spotlight has lessened a bit on Prime’s project in Boulder. Quietly, Colorado has made significant strides on defense. The run defense is better and CU has improved on third downs. Those will be important against the Wildcats’ run game. Plus, Colorado will have the best player on the field at any given moment. Getting 3.5 at home, I see value in Colorado. PICK: Colorado
ES: Kansas State was just so bad on the road against BYU, but I also think the Cougars have a better atmosphere. The Wildcats are a step up in competition for Colorado, and even at home this would be a massive win for the Buffaloes. I’m not saying it can’t happen – which shows how far Colorado has come – but I don’t see it quite yet. PICK: Kansas State