Greg McElroy and Chris Fallica recently broke down one of the key matchups of the Week 5 slate between Iowa and Michigan.

Iowa’s offense couldn’t hit water out of a boat. The Hawkeyes also are good at home against top 10 programs and often walk away with the upset. Both statements can be — and are — true entering Week 5 of the college football season.

No. 4 Michigan arrives in Iowa City Saturday with the chance to improve to 5-0 for the second consecutive season. Led by quarterback JJ McCarthy, plus the rushing attack of Blake Corum and Co., this should be an easy win for the Wolverines on the road, right?

Not so fast. Since 2008, Iowa is 5-1 at Kinnick Stadium against top 10 opponents. In 2016, the Hawkeyes ended the then-No. 2 Wolverines’ chances of making the College Football Playoff in a 14-13 upset.

ESPN’s Greg McElroy might not be ready to crown the Hawkeyes champs yet, but he is leaning toward them entering the matchup. At least in terms of betting the -10.5 line.

“It’s almost an auto (Iowa) play for me,” McElroy said on the latest edition of his podcast. “Regardless of anything I’ve seen from the Hawkeyes this year. I’m taking the Hawks at home against top-tier competition. I’m not sold on a few things on Michigan’s defense this year… I’m taking the 11 points at home but I feel like a sucker.”

Fellow ESPN analyst Chris Fallica also is sold that the Hawkeyes will cover the spread.

“This feels like either Iowa wins outright or Michigan wins the game convincingly… the game kind of just sets up that way for me,” said Fallica.

Fallica isn’t discrediting the defense led by new coordinator Jesse Minter. Instead, his concerns are with McCarthy, who still is finding his rhythm as the team’s starter. The QB has only recorded more than 20 pass attempts once this season. That came last week in the Wolverines’ 34-27 win over Maryland.