Hammerin' the B1G: Matt Hinton's bleak B1G QB outlook for 2024 feels... like an unfortunate reality

Determining the golden era of Big Ten quarterback play would require a deep dive into the illustrious history of the conference. I’ll save that endeavor for another day, but one thing is clear.

That golden era was not in 2023. And, if current projections hold true, it’s unlikely to see a major resurgence in 2024.

Saturday Tradition’s own Matt Hinton undertook the endeavor of ranking the best QBs in the country for our annual “Top 25 Week.” The B1G is not devoid of representation on that list, though it’s not exactly a rosy representation of the league.

Hinton had 2 B1G players in the top 10 and 4 overall on the list, but it’s particularly interesting that 2 of those players come from conference newcomers. And, if we’re being entirely honest, there are some question marks related to the players on his list.

Here are the 4 B1G QBs Hinton included with their respective rankings:

18. Miller Moss, USC
11. Will Howard, Ohio State
7. Drew Allar, Penn State
3. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon

Gabriel stands out with expectations that the former Oklahoma and UCF starter will be one of the best players in the country. In fact, Oregon’s new starting QB is the favorite to capture the Heisman Trophy this season, currently leading DraftKings‘ odds at +750.

Even as a transfer piece, Gabriel is just about the closest bet you can have to a sure thing to succeed with Oregon. That doesn’t mean the Ducks will go undefeated or that they will win the B1G. But the idea of being concerned with what he brings to the offense is entirely foreign.

A veteran with extensive experience and dual-threat ability, Dan Lanning and his coaching staff can rest easy at night knowing their QB situation is solid. And it’s also deep with former 5-star QB Dante Moore in line behind Gabriel.

If we’re honest, that’s the only QB room from the B1G right now that feels like a sure thing in 2024. Some are undeniably talented and loaded with potential, but no one is at fault for raising question marks with the rest of the conference.

Take the rest of the B1G players on Hinton’s list for example. He has Drew Allar listed ahead of Will Howard, a view I agree with wholeheartedly ahead of the season. In fact, Gabriel and Allar were the only 2 QBs I ranked as top-25 players in the conference this fall.

The point of this article is not to directly compare Allar and Howard, but the practice carries some insight. A lot has been made about what Allar isn’t as a passer with his sub-60% completion percentage, and I’ve spent my own time unpacking concerns related to his performance this fall.

But, at some point, we do have to admit the positive things Allar has done thus far. For all of his accuracy struggles, Allar’s misses have not yet resulted in “beat yourself” kind of throws with just 2 career interceptions.

That makes a big difference, and it should be said Howard threw 8 more interceptions in few attempts than Allar a season ago. Howard was also only marginally better with his overall accuracy than Allar.

What’s the point of all that? Allar has a strong case to be ranked ahead of Howard at this juncture, but it’s equal true question marks persist at each spot.

Both players have a high ceiling with their respective offenses. No one will be (or should not be) shocked if Howard and Allar have their groups clicking and competing for a conference title. But no one would also be surprised if struggles in big-game environments derail the 2 at inopportune moments.

That brings us to Miller Moss, the other player from the B1G included on Hinton’s list. I understand the optimism around what Moss brings to the table, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Moss spent the 2022 and 2023 seasons backing up Caleb Williams, and there’s no shame in that. He made the most of his playing time with a 71.7% completion percentage across his 3 seasons, and Moss’s start in the bowl game resulted in 372 yards and 6 touchdowns against Louisville.

Even projecting some normal regression from those numbers, Moss looks like a solid piece for the Trojans. But that’s a lot of stock to put in one bowl game start for a team in the upper tier of the Big Ten Championship odds. Be sure to track the latest odds and offers with Tradition’s sports betting apps in Ohio.

So where does that leave QB play in the B1G this fall? It could be very strong if the players mentioned in this piece all surpass expectations on the high end.

But the reality is the odds of that happening are not likely. And even accounting for some lesser-known players to come on strong in 2024 does not fully address the low outlook at the position this season.

Even if the B1G produces an elite passer or two, the overall production at QB is bound to leave something to be desired yet again.