Heisman Watch, Week 3: Quinn Ewers injury causes shake-up at the top
The Heisman race changed in Week 2 when Quinn Ewers made a statement in Ann Arbor. It took another potentially significant shift in Week 3 when Ewers left a Texas blowout early in the second quarter with an injury. Arch Manning took over at quarterback, and Miami’s Cam Ward took over as the favorite to win the coveted trophy with most sportsbooks.
Coach Steve Sarkisian said after Saturday’s game that the school didn’t expect anything major to be wrong. “We don’t think it’s anything structural or broken,” he said. The initial reporting called the injury an oblique strain. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported on Sunday that Ewers is likely to miss the Longhorns’ Week 4 game, but the injury isn’t as serious as Texas initially feared.
Ewers entered Week 3 as the betting favorite to win the Heisman. Now, Ward holds that distinction. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart round out the top 3. The wild card in all this is Manning, who was electric in relief of Ewers and has already cracked the top 10 on most boards.
If he continues to ball out, chaos could ensue.
Below is the updated Heisman Trophy race entering Week 4. (You can find last week’s picture here.)
Each week throughout the season, we’ll take a look at the field, at who is doing what, at who is moving up the ladder, and at who is inching closer to the most coveted player-of-the-year honor in sports.
Editor’s note: The “ranking” you’ll see next to each player’s name is not a subjective ranking. Yet. For now, it is a direct representation of the average odds each player has to win the Heisman. When we have a clearer picture of who is doing what, subjective rankings will take over.
1. Cameron Ward, Miami QB
Week 3 results: 62-0 win over Ball State
Week 3 stats: 19-for-28, 346 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions
Season stats: 73.0% completion, 1,035 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 rushing touchdown
One big number: 94.4 Total QBR
Current odds: +480 (via FanDuel)
Up next: at South Florida
Ward leads all quarterbacks both in Total QBR and EPA (24.0) after 3 games. He also has the best offensive grade from Pro Football Focus of any qualified FBS quarterback. There has not been a more valuable quarterback to their team through the opening quarter of the season than the Washington State import.
2. Jalen Milroe, Alabama QB
Week 3 results: 42-10 win at Wisconsin
Week 3 stats: 12-for-17, 196 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 75 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
Season stats: 67.3% completion, 590 passing yards, 8 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 156 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 14 total touchdowns in 3 games
Current odds: +600 (via FanDuel)
Up next: BYE
Milroe is currently tied for fourth in the nation in rushing touchdowns through 3 weeks. His 14 total touchdowns lead all FBS players. There are only 9 guys with double-digit scores thus far, and Milroe is 2 clear of the No. 2 spot (held by Ward). With multiple rushing scores and multiple passing scores against Wisconsin, Milroe became the first player since 2012 to accomplish that feat in 3 consecutive games.
3. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss QB
Week 3 results: 40-6 win at Wake Forest
Week 3 stats: 26-for-34, 377 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 rushing touchdown
Season stats: 83% completion, 1,172 passing yards, 8 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 408.7 yards of total offense per game
Current odds: +600 (via FanDuel)
Up next: vs. Georgia Southern
Dart is gobbling up yardage in this red-hot Ole Miss offense. No player has more passing yards through 3 weeks, and no player has more total yards of offense through 3 weeks. With Dart at the controls, the Rebels currently lead the nation in yards per game and rank second in yards per play (0.01 yards per play behind first).
4. Quinn Ewers, Texas QB
Week 3 results: 56-7 win over UTSA
Week 3 stats: 14-for-16, 185 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception,
Season stats: 73.4% completion, 691 passing yards, 8 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions
One big number: 18 dropbacks in Week 3
Current odds: not on the board at FanDuel at the time of publication (+500 the previous week)
Up next: vs. UL Monroe
Ewers left last Saturday’s win over UTSA early in the second quarter with an injury to his midsection. Coach Steve Sarkisian said Ewers is dealing with both an oblique and an abdominal strain and should be considered week-to-week going forward. Ewers missed 2 games last season and 3 games the year before that; durability has been a concern throughout his time with the Longhorns. With Arch Manning, Texas can exercise an abundance of caution with its starting quarterback, and that means a little more volatility in the futures market.
5. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee QB
Week 3 results: 71-0 win over Ken State
Week 3 stats: 10-for-16, 173 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 31 rushing yards
Season stats: 71.6% completion, 698 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 1 rushing touchdown
One big number: 11 completions of at least 20 yards
Current odds: +900 (via FanDuel)
Up next: at No. 15 Oklahoma
Something to keep in mind ahead of Tennessee’s highly anticipated trip to Oklahoma: Iamaleava has 11 completions that have generated at least 20 yards so far this season, but 5 of those came in the opener against Chattanooga and only 4 of those pass plays have been on throws that traveled at least 20 yards in the air. Per PFF, Iamaleava has only attempted 11 passes of at least 20 air yards in 3 games. He had a light day in the win over Kent State, with the ground game going crazy. (Though he uncorked a perfect throw to Chris Brazzell II that traveled about 50 yards in the air in the first quarter.) In a way, that was probably the best-case scenario for coach Josh Heupel. Tennessee hasn’t had to show much to boat-race opponents through 3 weeks. Iamaleava has a 71.4% adjusted completion rate on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) but the bulk of his diet thus far has consisted of throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
6. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon QB
Week 3 results: 49-14 win at Oregon State
Week 3 stats: 20-for-24, 291 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 64 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Season stats: 84% completion, 914 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 2 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 9 pressures in Week 3, 0 hits
Current odds: +900 (via FanDuel)
Up next: BYE
Oregon’s offensive line finally looked the way it was expected to in the preseason. Nishad Strother entered the starting lineup and Iapani Laloulu moved to center. The Ducks did not allow a single sack after giving up 7 through the first 2 games. Gabriel responded with his best game of the season. He posted a 99.3 QBR in the Ducks’ rout of Oregon State — the highest of any passer in the country in Week 3.
7. Carson Beck, Georgia QB
Week 3 results: 13-12 win at Kentucky
Week 3 stats: 15-for-24, 160 passing yards, 0 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions,
Season stats: 68.3% completion, 680 passing yards, 7 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions
One big number: 7.7-yard average depth of target
Current odds: +1400 (via FanDuel)
Up next: BYE
Among the 19 qualified SEC passers through 3 weeks, Beck’s 7.7-yard average depth of target is the second-shortest. Beck only has 2 throws PFF has graded as “big-time throws” through 3 games, and 23 of his 56 completions on the season have been caught behind the line of scrimmage.
8. Arch Manning, Texas QB
Week 3 results: 56-7 win over UTSA
Week 3 stats: 9-for-12, 223 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 53 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Season stats: 77.8% completion, 318 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 2 rushing touchdowns
One big number: 3 plays of at least 50 yards in Week 3
Current odds: +1400 (via FanDuel)
Up next: vs. UL Monroe
Manning’s Heisman odds surged after he replaced Ewers in the second quarter. FanDuel has him above notable names like Will Howard, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, and Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter. It’s unclear how much time Ewers will miss, but sportsbooks will surely try to capitalize on the Manning hype. And there’s plenty of reason for hype after Manning entered a game with no advance notice and then produced 7 explosive plays. He had more touchdowns (4) than incompletions as a passer, and per Reel Analytics, Manning reached a top speed of 20.7 miles per hour on his 67-yard rushing score. That’s NFL receiver-level speed. Manning produced 3 plays that gained at least 50 yards in his 29 snaps. Florida has 3 50-yard plays in 3 full games.
@ArchManning 67-yards to the
The @TexasFootball QB makes a defender miss & clocks 20.7 MPH to the end zone
Will the #HookEm star crack our Top 5 Fastest Players this week? #ReelSpeed pic.twitter.com/rx4yapV2W3
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 15, 2024
9. Miller Moss, USC QB
Week 3 results: N/A
Week 3 stats: N/A
Season stats: 72.7% completion, 607 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions
One big number: N/A
Current odds: +1800 (via FanDuel)
Up next: at No. 18 Michigan
Moss has another huge game against a marquee opponent upcoming with a trip to Michigan in Week 4. When Texas blasted Michigan in Week 2, Ewers diced the U-M secondary and his Heisman odds shortened. We’ll see if Moss can do something similar after an off week.
10. Will Howard, Ohio State QB
Week 3 results: N/A
Week 3 stats: N/A
Season stats: 64.8% completion, 520 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 1 rushing touchdown
One big number: N/A
Current odds: +2000 (via FanDuel)
Up next: vs. Marshall
Howard had an early bye week and will get to face another overmatched opponent in Week 4.