If there were no upsets, there would be little reason to watch college football.

And perhaps that’s the future the TV networks are gearing up for as they winnow away the little guys because they think some guy in Queens who never went to college will find marquee matchups more appealing to watch on a Saturday. (Carl from Aqua Teen Hunger Force is basically the target demographic for conference realignment.)

But we’ve still got today, and they can’t take that away from us yet. Upsets will happen in 2023.

Of course, in predicting upsets, one stands a strong chance of looking like a fool. But you’ve got to risk it for the biscuit. Last year’s picks included some notable hits (Washington over Michigan State, Northwestern over Nebraska, Miami of Ohio over Northwestern) and even more notable whiffs (Nebraska over Oklahoma and Rutgers over Michigan … oof.)

Here are my top 10 upset picks involving Big Ten teams in 2023.

10. Ohio State wins at Michigan

Yes, we’ve crossed the bridge where this counts as an upset — and a notable one at that.

But the Buckeyes have too much talent to drop 3 in a row to the Wolverines. Last year’s game was decided by Ohio State’s lack of discipline. The Buckeyes allowed 5 touchdowns of at least 45 yards, threw 2 interceptions, and committed 9 penalties for 91 yards.

There will be an entire year of emphasis placed on cleaning things up. And a heavy focus on the Block M planted at Ohio State’s 50-yard line. The Buckeyes will hand the Wolverines their first L of 2023.

9. Michigan State wins at Iowa

A classic hangover game, as the Hawkeyes will be coming home after a huge road win. (More on that later.)

On top of that, Mel Tucker has a difficult-to-explain win in each of his 3 seasons at Michigan State. In 2020, he beat Big Ten West champ Northwestern. The next year, the Spartans took down Big Ten champ Michigan. And last season, Michigan State prevented Illinois from reaching the Big Ten championship game.

It helps that Michigan State’s biggest weakness — pass defense — is something Iowa isn’t primed to exploit.

This year it will be Iowa missing out on Indianapolis thanks to stubbing its toe against Michigan State.

8. Illinois wins vs. Wisconsin

Illini fans are likely protesting this being classified as an upset after last year’s mashing of the Badgers in Madison. But at the end of the year, we will collectively look back and say “Oh, that was an upset” on account of Wisconsin’s final record.

Last year made it clear beating Wisconsin is a big deal for Bret Bielema, and now he’s got Jim Leonhard on staff thinking the same thing. This has potential to be another blowout for the Illini.

7. Northwestern wins against Iowa

Kirk Ferentz has a 3-11 all-time record when playing on the road the week following a bye, and that’s where this falls on the schedule. The game is at Wrigley Field, and Northwestern had more wins at neutral sites than Ryan Field in 2022. That trend will continue with the Cats’ lone Big Ten win of 2023.

6. Iowa wins at Penn State

It’s a White Out. Tough environment to play in, no doubt. But road teams are 8-10 in the game, including an Iowa win in 2009. The Hawks haven’t been invited back for another White Out until now. And it will be another decade-plus after this one.

The Nittany Lions play a bruising game at Illinois in Week 3, then come home to face another physical opponent. Iowa’s secondary is a strength, and Penn State’s passing game will be a work in progress the first month of the season with Drew Allar replacing 4-year starter Sean Clifford.

This is a game where Cade McNamara’s experience under pressure can make a difference for Iowa.

5. Wisconsin wins vs. Ohio State

My pick for the Big Ten game of the year, non-Michigan vs. Ohio State division.

You’ve got a revamped Wisconsin offense. Luke Fickell getting a shot against his former team. A bananas atmosphere in Madison on Halloween weekend, which will likely include several people actually wearing banana costumes.

It all adds up to Wisconsin’s first win over Ohio State since 2010.

4. Minnesota wins vs. Wisconsin

Minnesota fans aren’t going to be Minnesota Nice over this being classified as an upset. The Gophers have won back-to-back games over the Badgers.

But when Wisconsin rolls into the Twin Cities with a 10-1 record and a shot at the College Football Playoff with a win, those fans will say “Oh ya, that was an upset” when the Gophers hoist Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the third straight year. That hasn’t happened since 1987, which I say further qualifies this as an upset of note.

3. Toledo wins at Illinois

A MAC team has beaten a Big Ten team every year they have played since 2006. It’s going to happen again this year. Maybe it won’t be this particular game. But the Rockets are favored to win the conference, so I’ll take my chances by backing the league’s best team.

With a win here, it’s entirely plausible for Toledo to run the table and become the top-ranked Group of 5 team at the end of the season. And Toledo’s cause will be helped by the fact Illinois will also have a very good season — I have the Illini picked to finish 2nd in the B1G West.

Illinois has a lot of new faces doing new things this year. The Illini are replacing their quarterback, running back, and top 2 defensive backs. It should jell as the season progresses, but Week 1 is a vulnerable spot.

2. Purdue wins vs. Ohio State

This pick is a last-minute epiphany that invalidates my original pick of Ohio State to win the Big Ten this year. A 2nd loss swings the B1G to Michigan instead. But there’s a reason I got here.

The fact Ryan Day has yet to name a starting quarterback may be less about the QB competition and more about the Buckeyes struggling to replace a pair of tackles who could end up NFL starters as rookies. Devin Brown would get the nod not because Kyle McCord isn’t worthy, but because Brown has superior mobility and escapability. You can’t use a big arm when you’re already on the ground.

If there’s 1 thing we know first-year Purdue coach Ryan Walters can do well, it’s causing chaos in the backfield. His Illinois defense finished with 81 TFL last year.

And then there’s Spoilermaker magic. Purdue has 3 straight home wins against top-3 opponents, all while unranked. Provided Ohio State beats Notre Dame in Week 4, that scenario will present itself for this game.

Purdue won’t make a bowl game this year. But the Boilers will provide one of the season’s biggest stunners.

1. West Virginia wins at Penn State

People are putting the cart ahead of the horse with Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have accumulated a wealth of young talent that should make them the Big Ten’s team to beat in 2024. But sometimes the “youth” part overrides the “talent” part. And odds are we will see that be the case a few times this season.

Maybe it’s more likely to pop up at Illinois or Michigan State than against West Virginia, which enters the season opener as a 20.5-point underdog.

But some items to consider:

  • West Virginia coach Neal Brown might not even make it to the end of the season without a big win. It’s desperation time. And don’t count out a guy who already has a win as a 20.5-point underdog, leading Troy past LSU in 2016.
  • James Franklin has a spotty Week 1 record, though to be fair he has a habit of getting saddled with atypically tough Week 1 opponents. Franklin is 8-4 in season openers, including a 4-point win at Purdue and a 6-point win at Wisconsin the past 2 years. The best example of what could happen here is 2018. Penn State survived an overtime scare from another group of Mountaineers, Appalachian State — 23-point dogs. Having awakened, the Lions then blasted Pitt 51-6 the next week.
  • Replacing a 4-year starting quarterback is not an easy task. It doesn’t matter how many stars the replacement had in recruiting. There will be jitters.

If Allar was working with Ohio State’s receivers, there would be less concern about hiccups. But in Penn State’s case, that’s the weakest position on the team. Really the only weakness, period. And it’s going to leave the Nittany Lions vulnerable to at least 1 stunner in the first month of the season.