The 2023 college football season is no longer some distant vision of the future. With conference media days underway, the promise of the season’s opening kickoff is beginning to take shape on the horizon.

With that shape comes an increasing clarity over how each team will perform in the coming season.

Sportsbooks opened betting for season win totals over 2 months ago, but now feels like the right time to start placing those bets. Rosters are mostly set following the late spring/early summer transfer portal wave.

Based on the win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook, this is how we see the season playing out for each Big Ten team.

Illinois

Total: 6.5 wins

The play: Over (-110)

The concern here is that the nonconference schedule isn’t a cakewalk. The Fighting Illini face no FCS opponents. And none of the 3 teams they do face is a guaranteed W.

Toledo should win the MAC. Kansas is suddenly a mid-tier Big 12 opponent. Even Florida Atlantic could be a test with Tom Herman on the sidelines seeking to revive his coaching career.

But it also feels like the rock-bottom record for this Illinois team would be 5-7. And there’s certainly a path to 8-4. The odds imply the Illini have a 50/50 shot at 7 wins, and that seems pretty favorable to me.

Indiana

Total: 3.5 wins

The play: Over (-140)

Indiana State and Akron represent 2 wins. Can you trust the Hoosiers to go 2-8 the rest of the way?

I think so.

Indiana will be good enough to beat either Michigan State or Purdue in November. Perhaps both. The Hoosiers get Rutgers at home, which is also a winnable matchup. And maybe IU can beat Jeff Brohm and Louisville at Lucas Oil Stadium, though Tom Allen’s head-to-head record against Brohm doesn’t inspire confidence.

The Hoosiers can hit the over here, but there’s a pretty good chance it won’t cash until after the Old Oaken Bucket game.

Iowa

Total: 8.5 wins

The play: Over (-134)

When betting opened in May, the books put Iowa at 7.5 wins. Evidently, enough money has poured in on the Hawks for that to raise by a full win.

And for good reason. Iowa doesn’t have to play either Ohio State or Michigan, which removes a pair of potential losses from the docket. The Hawkeyes won 7 regular season games last year despite facing both without actually fielding an offense.

There’s a “you snooze, you lose” element in play here since over 7.5 was such a steal. But Iowa is still likely a 9-3 or 10-2 team. And the over is still the right play.

Maryland

Total: 7.5 wins

The play: Over (-115)

The Terps will be underdogs against Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. And since the Nebraska game is in Lincoln, it’s quite likely the Cornhuskers will be favored against Maryland as well.

But Maryland will be favored against every other team it faces this season. If things simply play to form, that’s 8 wins. And this team will be good enough to spring an upset, so playing to be form might be underselling its capabilities.

As long as Taulia Tagovailoa is healthy, Maryland should be an 8-win team. That’s a big if, however, so keep that in mind if you plan on taking out a reverse mortgage to place this bet.

Michigan

Total: 10.5 wins

The play: Over (-148)

This isn’t a great payout — you’d have to bet $148 to win $100 — but 10-2 feels like the worst possible record the Wolverines could achieve this year. There are no threats in the nonconference schedule. And Michigan has asserted its will on Ohio State each of the past 2 seasons. Things would really have to unravel for this team to not reach 11-1 or better for the third straight year.

Michigan State

Total: 5.5 wins

The play: Under (-158)

Given the price, nobody has much faith in the Spartans. And why should they? Michigan State will likely have 1 of the country’s worst pass defenses yet again, and the absence of Kenneth Walker III was glaring last year.

Perhaps no Big Ten team has more unanswered questions in 2023 than Michigan State. Although I wouldn’t expect all of those questions to be answered in the negative. Should MSU’s win total drop to 4.5 before the season, be prepared to switch to the over.

Minnesota

Total: 7.5 wins

The play: Under (-150)

Vegas has been burned by the Gophers each of the past 2 seasons, much to my own delight and profit. And now it looks like the books are terrified it will happen again, because it feels like 6.5 would be the right number here.

PJ Fleck found some gems in the transfer portal, but Minnesota is 87th in the nation in returning production. And there’s a tough nonconference matchup at North Carolina in the mix. Win that game and the Gophers could get to 8. Lose it, and the path becomes quite narrow.

Nebraska

Total: 6.5 wins

The play: Under (-134)

I do think Matt Rhule will get the Cornhuskers to a bowl game in Year 1, but I expect it to come in under the wire with a 6-6 record. Nebraska hasn’t gone over 6.5 wins in the regular season since 2016. That’s too much bad juju to erase in a single offseason.

Northwestern

Total: 2.5 wins

The play: Over (-138)

In reality, I wouldn’t touch this with a 10-foot pole right now. There’s no telling what we are going to get out of the Wildcats in the wake of Pat Fitzgerald’s ousting. And all that drama is being thrown on top of a program that hasn’t won a game on American soil since 2021.

But surely Northwestern can cobble 3 wins together. The Cats, even lost in the wilderness, are capable of beating UTEP and FCS opponent Howard. And even if Northwestern isn’t favored in any of its other 10 games, the Cats haven’t gone winless in conference since 1998. They will steal a win somewhere.

Ohio State

Total: 10.5 wins

The play: Over (-144)

With a game at Notre Dame on the nonconference schedule, Ohio State has a slightly greater chance of slipping to 10-2 than Michigan. And surely there are Michigan fans out there who will take the under at +118 for the fun of it.

But given that Notre Dame has lost 5 straight to the Buckeyes going back to 1995, I still believe the odds are good that both Ohio State and Michigan hit 11 wins again this season.

Penn State

Total: 9.5 wins

The play: Under (+114)

The Nittany Lions are still a year away from being ready to overtake Ohio State and/or Michigan. Drew Allar is a first-year starting quarterback. There will be growing pains. And that means this team will be susceptible to an upset beyond the Ohio State and Michigan games.

Since that possibility also comes with a positive return on your money, I like the under.

Purdue

Total: 5.5 wins

The play: Under (-140)

The Boilermakers were loaded for bear with a veteran lineup last season. Jeff Brohm didn’t just leave for Louisville because it’s home. It’s also going to be a rebuilding season for Purdue. Ryan Walters would legitimately deserve Big Ten Coach of the Year consideration if he gets the Boilers to a bowl game in Year 1.

To me, Purdue under 5.5 wins feels like the surest Big Ten future in 2023.

Rutgers

Total: 3.5 wins

The play: Over (-188)

The other sure thing? Rutgers making it over 3.5 wins.

Of course, that’s reflected in a price that indicates this total is likely to move to 4.5 by the start of the season — at which point I’d be optimistic, but decidedly less bullish.

But if you can stomach the poor return price here, the Scarlet Knights will not be worse than 4-8 this season.

Wisconsin

Total: 8.5 wins

The play: Over (-138)

It’s entirely possible that the Badgers will finish the regular season with their only loss coming against Ohio State, though either 10-2 or 9-3 seem much more likely in Luke Fickell’s first season. But even those scenarios would clear 8.5 wins.

Wisconsin has the best roster in the Big Ten West, and now it actually has coaching to match that talent. This line moved down from an opening total of 9, and now is the time to strike.