Hot take: Every Big Ten football team will lose a game in 2023.

Only that take isn’t nearly as scorching as you think. No Big Ten team has run the table since Ohio State in 2002.

Even Ohio State’s 2014 national championship team had a blemish, losing to Virginia Tech in Week 2. The Buckeyes reached the inaugural College Football Playoff as the No. 4 seed, upsetting Alabama and Oregon for the national title — the most recent won by a B1G team.

With history as my guide, that means I’m projecting a loss for every B1G team this season. In case that doesn’t prove true, an early congrats to anyone who actually proves capable of breaking the trend this year. Remember, I’m just being a realist, not a hater.

Some losses are obvious and expected. Others come from way off the radar. Which is my first excuse for explaining why not all of these picks will be correct.

Here is where I foresee each B1G team’s first loss in 2023.

Illinois: At Kansas (Week 2)

The Jayhawks should be favored in the Bill Self Football Classic.

Both programs were in sorry shape when this game was scheduled, which is precisely why they scheduled each other. But after both made massive improvement under their second-year coaches last season, this is actually one of the best nonconference matchups of the season. (OK, maybe “most fun” is more accurate than “best.”)

Kansas was among the nation’s most explosive offenses when quarterback Jalon Daniels was healthy. That’s likely to be true in Week 2, and that should be enough to lift the Jayhawks in a close game.

Word of warning: Illinois can’t sleep on Week 1 opponent Toledo, which will likely be the MAC’s top team this season.

Indiana: Ohio State (Week 1)

The Hoosiers haven’t beaten the Buckeyes since 1988. The streak won’t end this year.

Iowa: At Penn State (Week 4)

There is a degree of difficulty in a Week 2 matchup at Iowa State, but the Hawkeyes should take back the CyHawk Trophy after a 1-year departure from Iowa City. A Big Ten opener in Happy Valley will be even tougher, though, and that’s where Iowa will take its first L.

That said, the Hawks earned consecutive wins against Penn State in 2020 and ’21. There’s a chance the Nittany Lions will be the team coming out of this early-season showdown with their first loss.

Maryland: At Ohio State (Week 6)

With a favorable early-season schedule, the hype will build for Maryland all September. After a fairly easy nonconference run of Towson, Charlotte and Virginia, the Terrapins open Big Ten play with games against Indiana and Michigan State. That’s a recipe for the program’s first 5-0 start since 2001.

That will lead to considerable excitement for the Week 6 matchup against fellow unbeaten Ohio State. Given the valiant fight the Terps showed in last year’s 43-30 loss to the Buckeyes, many Maryland fans will likely talk themselves into the possibility of a win in the Horseshoe.

But Maryland hasn’t played many important games in a place this hyped. Ever. Ohio State will snap Maryland’s hot start.

Michigan: Ohio State (Week 12)

Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles had the right idea last year — test Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy with aggressive man-to-man coverage, just as Illinois successfully did the week before.

There were just a couple problems with that plan.

As it turns out, Illinois had better corners than Ohio State last year. By a wide margin. And McCarthy learned from the great escape against the Illini, allowing him to burn Ohio State’s coverage for big plays — a trio of touchdown passes over 45 yards.

Knowles will have more respect for McCarthy’s capabilities this year and craft a better game plan. Michigan hasn’t won 3 straight over the Buckeyes since 1997, and Ohio State will make sure that remains true.

Michigan State: Washington (Week 3)

The Spartans are Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s personal pinata, and he’ll batter Michigan State’s sorry pass defense to move to 3-1 against MSU for his career. Unless there’s a dramatic reboot this offseason, Michigan State cannot stop a quarterback of this caliber — a lesson that will play out a few times in 2023.

Minnesota: At North Carolina (Week 3)

Speaking of Heisman-caliber quarterbacks, the Gophers will find a rude awakening against North Carolina’s Drake Maye. There’s never been a quarterback like Maye in the Big Ten West, as Russell Wilson played during the Big Ten’s Leaders and Legends era.

Much like Illinois at Kansas, this matchup is a higher degree of difficulty than Minnesota initially signed up for.

Nebraska: At Minnesota (Week 1)

Colorado coach Deion Sanders will ride his offseason of hype into a Week 1 loss to TCU, while Nebraska coach Matt Rhule will ride his offseason of hype into a Week 1 loss at Minnesota.

And that will make Nebraska’s Week 2 game at Colorado even more fun, because both of the old Big 8 rivals will be in search of the all-important first win for their new coach.

Rhule will change Nebraska’s culture in time, but Minnesota has won 4 straight in this series because the Gophers are tougher than the Huskers in the trenches. A lot tougher. This game will show Rhule how much work is left to do.

Northwestern: At Rutgers (Week 1)

The Wildcats will lose a lot of games this year, and that will begin with the season-opener.

It’s hard to imagine this team will be in a good place mentally in the wake of Pat Fitzgerald’s firing — although one never knows what kind of chip that chaos could create. Northwestern may band together to spring a major upset at some point this season. And frankly even beating Rutgers qualifies.

Ohio State: Minnesota (Week 11)

Mere paragraphs ago, I was the toast of Columbus for predicting that Michigan’s first loss will come against the Buckeyes. And now I get to be the pariah of the Olentangy for predicting what will happen the week prior.

On the surface, it may appear like the dumbest idea ever — a concept with which I’m quite familiar. The Gophers have not beaten the Buckeyes since 2000. And even that was a blip on the radar. Minnesota is 1-27 against Ohio State since 1982, which literally equates to the author’s lifetime.

However, timing is everything in life. And it was no coincidence that the only time Ohio State and Michigan were seriously threatened last season was the week before they faced one another. It will be impossible for Ohio State to not look ahead, especially if both teams are 10-0.

PJ Fleck had a winning game plan against the Buckeyes in 2021. Unfortunately for him, that went out the window when Mohamed Ibrahim tore his Achilles’ tendon at the end of the third quarter. Minnesota is built in a Michigan mold up front, which has clearly proven successful against Ohio State the past 2 years.

Also, keep in mind that a loss to Minnesota and a win over Michigan results in a Big Ten championship  for Ohio State. In the obverse scenario, the Wolverines win their third straight.

Which sounds better?

Penn State: At Ohio State (Week 7)

I’ll believe James Franklin can get over the Michigan-Ohio State hump when I see it. And I actually think there’s a very good chance we’ll see it in 2024. But this year the Nittany Lions are too young in too many key spots to make it happen against the more veteran Wolverines and Buckeyes.

Penn State’s 6-0 start will be snapped by 1 of the usual suspects.

Purdue: At Virginia Tech (Week 2)

The Hokies are what the Boilermakers are probably going to be next year — much better heading into their second year under a new coaching staff.

Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry has seen plenty of Purdue from his time as Penn State’s defensive coordinator, though that may mean very little with Jeff Brohm gone.

Lane Stadium is still among college football’s best environments despite the program’s recent dip. This could be a game that rekindles the magic for the Hokies.

Rutgers: At Michigan (Week 4)

Last year my boldest preseason prediction was that Rutgers would upset Michigan. Lo and behold, the Scarlet Knights took a lead into the locker room at halftime.

And then they played the second half — at which point it was too late to delete the bold prediction from the internet.

But Michigan’s 38-0 second-half onslaught did teach a very valuable lesson. Pick the Wolverines this time.

Wisconsin: Iowa (Week 6)

The Badgers are positioned well for a 5-0 start to the Luke Fickell Era.

A Week 2 visit to Washington State will be tough, especially after losing to the Cougars last year. But that defeat was largely the product of self-inflicted wounds that a coaching change is supposed to remedy.

Wisconsin opens the Big Ten schedule at Purdue. The Badgers have not lost to the Boilermakers since roughly 2 B.C. And Rutgers isn’t about to win a game at Camp Randall.

Iowa, on the other hand, is quite capable of winning in Madison even though the Hawks have not done so since 2015 A.D.

Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker is the type of guy capable of completely slamming the brakes on an offense that will look unstoppable the first month of the season.