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I know. It’s bad. Real bad.
The opening week slate for the B1G is as bad as I can remember it.
But just because the B1G has a bunch of Week 1 duds doesn’t mean all bets are off. In fact, they’ll be very much on for that first weekend.
(I think there’s some stat about how historically, Vegas takes a hit in September of college football season and then makes a profit every month after that. I’m 90% sure I didn’t make that up.)
So yes, while the games might not be headliners, I still have some early thoughts about each of the lines, according to SportsBetting.ag.
(No lines were available for Idaho-Penn State, Howard-Maryland or South Dakota-Minnesota).
Wisconsin vs. South Florida
Date: Aug. 30
Line: Wisconsin -10
Early pick: Wisconsin -10
Even with all of Wisconsin’s inexperience on the offensive line and at quarterback, this is still a game that the Badgers should be able to bully USF with Jonathan Taylor. I’ll give the visiting team the advantage in that battle, which will pay off in the second half of what’ll likely by a hot, grueling game in Tampa. The Badgers avoid a tricky opener on the road and make their initial climb into 2019 relevance.
Tulsa vs. Michigan State
Date: Aug. 30
Line: Michigan State -21.5
Early pick: Tulsa +21.5
Since the start of MSU’s Playoff season in 2015, can you guess how many wins of 22 points or more the program has? Only six. That’s an average of 1.5 wins of 22-plus per season for a team that averaged 8 wins during that stretch. That’s not a lot. And Tulsa, even though it only won 3 games last year, is extremely experienced and it has proven skill players. I’m not saying it’ll be Utah State 2.0, but it wouldn’t be surprising if MSU came out a little slow to start 2019.
UMass vs. Rutgers
Date: Aug. 30
Line: Rutgers -13.5
Early pick: UMass +13.5
I have to see it before I can bet on it. Right now, all I see with Rutgers is a team who failed to surpass 17 points against an FBS foe last year. UMass is nearly the least experienced team in the country and it has a new coach in Walt Bell, but how can one go into any game thinking Rutgers is going to win by 2 scores? Maybe I’ll change my mind on this one, but the stench of that 11-game losing streak to end the season is still lingering.
Purdue vs. Nevada
Date: Aug. 30
Line: Purdue -9.5
Early pick: Purdue -9.5
It’ll be interesting to see how a team with an entire offseason to game plan for Rondale Moore handles that task. I certainly wouldn’t want to do that. The Wolf Pack has a lot of turnover on defense and with a new quarterback, it’s hard to predict Purdue to win by anything less than a couple touchdowns.
Florida Atlantic vs. Ohio State
Date: Aug. 31
Line: Ohio State -26
Early pick: FAU +26
ALL ABOARD THE LANE TRAIN. No, in all seriousness, this is about my belief that I think it’ll be some trial and error in Justin Fields’ debut in Ryan Field’s system. Let’s not forget that as highly-regarded as Fields is, it’ll still be his first career start. Don’t get me wrong. I still think the Buckeyes roll and win by at least 3 scores, but I don’t think this will be a repeat of Kiffin’s season opening dud at Oklahoma last year.
South Alabama vs. Nebraska
Date: Aug. 31
Line: Nebraska -32.5
Early pick: South Alabama +32.5
Sept. 10, 2016. That was the last time that Nebraska beat an FBS opponent by 33 points. I understand that it’s an entirely different coaching staff, but we’re still talking about a team that won 4 games last year, only 3 of which were against FBS teams. It’s the defensive issues that would give me pause to bet on Nebraska to cover that big of a spread. Even a 45-14 win isn’t getting you paid. I’d wait for that line to come down before I’d think about putting that much faith in the Huskers.
Akron vs. Illinois
Date: Aug. 31
Line: Illinois -15.5
Early pick: Akron +15.5
Illinois has 3 wins of 16-plus points against FBS teams in the Lovie Smith era and 2 of them were against Rutgers. That’s not my way of saying I believe Akron will do to Illinois what it did to Northwestern last year, but it gives me pause, especially when the Illini are a massive question mark at the quarterback position. Even though the Zips are coming off a 4-win season in the MAC, I’ll give them the early nod to stay within arm’s reach on the road.
Ball State vs. Indiana (in Indianapolis)
Date: Aug. 31
Line: Indiana -17
Early pick: Indiana -17
My initial reaction was to take the points, but it wasn’t long ago that we watched Stevie Scott and the Hoosiers run all over Ball State. With a new starting quarterback, the Cardinals will have an uphill climb against Tom Allen’s defense, which returns a ton a production from last year’s squad. As rare as it is that IU wins a blowout away from Bloomington, this is about the next-best thing to a home game.
Northwestern vs. Stanford
Date: Aug. 31
Line: Stanford -6.5
Early pick: Northwestern +6.5
K.J. Costello is legit, but the Cardinal is replacing a ton of production on the offensive side of the ball, most notably Bryce Love. Even though the thought of betting on Northwestern in a pre-October game worries me, getting nearly a touchdown makes sense for a team that played to its competition as much as anyone in the B1G (both good and bad). I think Hunter Johnson keeps it close in his debut and gives Northwestern a chance to pick up a huge road win to kick off 2019.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Michigan
Date: Aug. 31
Line: Michigan -31
Early pick: Middle Tennessee State +31
Yes, Michigan traditionally pounds Group of 5 teams under Jim Harbaugh. But two things are weighing heavily on my decision to take 31 points for MTSU. One is that this is a new offense. There are likely going to be some growing pains for Josh Gattis as a first-time play caller. That doesn’t mean Michigan’s 2019 outlook will change, but beating a team by 32 is a lot, even for a team with one of the nation’s top returning quarterbacks in Shea Patterson. And yeah, losing Devin Bush, Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary won’t make life easy for Don Brown, especially against a Group of 5 team that’s plenty familiar with facing Power 5 foes.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Iowa
Date: Aug. 31
Line: Iowa -21
Early pick: Iowa -21
It’s been 12 years since Miami (OH) beat a Power 5 team. In the last 7 seasons, the RedHawks stayed within 21 points against 1 Power 5 team. On top of that, they rank No. 95 in FBS in percentage of returning production coming off a 6-win season. So no, I’m not banking on the Hawkeyes to stumble. Will Nate Stanley probably have a little too much heat on his fastball in the opener? Probably. But this has the feel of a 35-7 game in which Iowa dominates the line of scrimmage en route to a comfortable win to start off the year.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.