No. 10 Illinois is eyeing a run at B1G-leading Purdue, but hurdles remain
Coleman Hawkins is eyeing a rematch with Purdue early next month, thinking his Fighting Illini can avenge an earlier loss to the Boilermakers to at least draw even in the Big Ten race.
There are potential problems looming before the March 5 date with Purdue, however, including a trip to Michigan State on Saturday.
If the Big Ten race is to stay competitive, at least with Purdue and Illinois battling for the top spot — Wisconsin, losers of 3 straight, has fallen 2 games back of the league-leading Boilermakers — then the Fighting Illini are going to have to find a way to upend the Spartans. And they have difficult road trips to Maryland and Wisconsin, too, along with a matchup at Penn State, before taking on Purdue. And a road game at Iowa ends their season.
Not easy.
“We’re 1 game out,” Hawkins said following Illinois’ overtime win over Nebraska on Sunday. “We’ve got the people who are in first place, they’ve got to come play us at home. We’re in control of our own destiny. Like we talk about, it’s one game at a time.”
And next up is the Spartans, who should provide quite the challenge in the Breslin Center. The teams matched up already once this season, with Illinois escaping with a 3-point win Jan. 11 in Champaign. The Illini held off a late MSU rally, getting 15 points from Hawkins and Ty Rodgers while playing without Terrence Shannon Jr., who was then suspended in the aftermath of a rape charge stemming from an alleged incident in Kansas in September.
Illinois has reason to be confident. Since falling at home to Maryland on Jan. 14, one of the most surprising outcomes of the Big Ten season, the Fighting Illini have won 6 of 7, with an average margin of victory of more than 10 points. The only loss was an overtime thriller at Northwestern.
Shannon’s return has buoyed the Illini as well, completing what might be one of the most dynamic offenses in the Big Ten. Shannon and Marcus Domask are impressive 1-on-1 players who can go get their own, especially at critical moments late in games. And Hawkins, forever a bit of an enigma given his tremendous upside but sometimes mercurial demeanor, is playing the most consistent basketball of his career. Illinois is a unique matchup for most, because it plays smaller in the post — Hawkins, at 6-10, is the starting center, but he plays more frequently on the perimeter than in the paint — yet it is big on the outside; no Illini starter is shorter than 6-6.
Yet there are questions too about the Illini. They can tend to get individualistic toward the end of games, with players getting out of the offensive system to try to make big baskets. It happened late vs. the Cornhuskers on Sunday, when a 10-point lead late evaporated quickly, sending the game to overtime before Illinois recovered.
Could it bite the Fighting Illini in the last month of the season? Michigan State will try to make it so. Although the Spartans are likely on the good side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, thanks to a Net Ranking of 24 (and 4 wins vs. Quad 1 and 2 opponents), they’d like to improve the résumé. A win over the Illini would give MSU, which is coming off a loss at Minnesota on Tuesday, its 3rd Q1 victory this season.
Michigan State, at 6-6 in the Big Ten, is stuck in a logjam of teams hoping for the 4th spot in the Big Ten standings, the last double-bye in the conference tournament. If Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin can be penciled in as 1 through 3 (although the Badgers’ recent slide leaves that in question), then it’s a packed house for No. 4, with 9 teams having between 5 and 7 conference losses.
But Saturday is about the Fighting Illini. If they are to provide a challenge to the Boilermakers as Big Ten champs, then it feels must-win. If Illinois can’t pull it out, then Purdue could go into its evening game Saturday night vs. Indiana with a 2-game edge on the rest of the field with a favorable schedule, at least until the rematch with the Illinois. But by then, the race for a league title might be all but over.