Malachi Nelson, former USC QB and 5-star recruit, loses Boise State QB battle

Malachi Nelson will start the 2024 season on the bench for Boise State, according to a report.

That’s per ESPN’s Pete Thamel, who says Nelson lost out to redshirt sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen during Boise State’s quarterback battle this offseason. This is a surprising development, as Nelson was a 5-star prospect in the 2023 recruiting cycle.

Sources: Boise State has named redshirt sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen as the starting quarterback for the opener at Georgia Southern. Madsen has been in a close competition with former No. 1 overall recruit Malachi Nelson, who transferred from USC this spring. pic.twitter.com/fwKM0AMc8Z

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 18, 2024

Nelson entered the transfer portal this past offseason following his freshman season at USC. He appeared in just 1 game for the Trojans, completed 1-of-3 passes for 0 yards.

Boise State hoped it would have a longterm starter in Nelson, but it seems Madsen has clearly been the better quarterback through fall camp. It’s certainly a disappointing outcome for a player in Nelson who was viewed as an elite quarterback prospect as recently as 1 year ago.

Madsen did get some reps as Boise State’s starter last season. He completed 81-of-132 (61.4% completion) passes for 1,191 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He averaged north of 9 yards per attempt as well.

Does this impact Boise State’s College Football Playoff chances?

Since the College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams this season, a Group-of-5 conference is guaranteed to have at least 1 representative in the field for the first time ever. The 5 highest-ranked conference champions will be included in the CFP this year, with the top 4 earning a first-round bye.

Along with programs like Liberty and Memphis, Boise State has been amongst the most-discussed G5 teams this offseason with an eye on that Playoff berth.

However, that was at least partially predicated on the idea that Boise State would be led by someone with Nelson’s elite prospect pedigree. Given his apparent struggles in camp, it’s fair to wonder if Boise State’s 2024 team has a lower ceiling than the market previously assumed.

As of this writing, Boise State is +400 to make the College Football Playoff this year over at FanDuel. That’s the best odds of any G5 program, narrowly edging out Liberty at +440.

Depending on your confidence level in Madsen, it may be a good idea to take a look at other top Group-of-5 programs who could be in the mix for that coveted CFP berth. Even before this announcement, ESPN’s SP+ saw more value in betting on Fresno State (+550) to win the Mountain West as opposed to Boise State.

Boise State also has a high-profile nonconference matchup against Oregon coming in Week 2. The Broncos’ first game will be against Georgia Southern on Aug. 31.