Michigan vs. Ohio State preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Michigan will travel to Columbus on Sunday to try to complete the season-sweep over Ohio State.

The Wolverines defeated Ohio State back in January, but have lost 11 of their last 12 games since that victory. On the other side, Ohio State has won 3 of its last 4 contests and appears to be playing its best basketball of the season entering this matchup.

Here’s a breakdown of Michigan vs. Ohio State:

Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting Odds

Spread: Ohio State -10.5 (FanDuel)

Total: Over/Under 143.5 points (FanDuel)

Betting trends to know for Michigan

Michigan is…

8-21 against the spread
2-8 against the spread on the road
4-11 against the spread as an underdog
4-14 against the spread in Big Ten games

Betting trends to know for Ohio State

Ohio State is…

12-16-1 against the spread
6-9-1 against the spread at home
7-11-1 against the spread as a favorite
7-11 against the spread in Big Ten games

3 notes for the game

Michigan is in the midst of season’s longest losing streak

Michigan is firmly in the midst of its longest losing streak of the year — which is really saying something considering what a nightmare season this has been for the Wolverines. Juwan Howard’s bunch has lost 6 straight games entering this matchup and has also dropped 16 of its last 18 contests overall.

Michigan hasn’t been particularly competitive during this stretch, either. The Wolverines have lost 5 of their last 6 games by double digits, with 3 of those coming by 20 or more points. Ironically, the only game in that span Michigan has been able to keep within single-digits was its game against Purdue. Michigan has not lost by fewer than 14 points in any road game since Jan. 11 (7 point loss to Maryland).

Ohio State’s recent defensive performances have been excellent

Ohio State has been playing much better since parting ways with Chris Holtmann last month. The Buckeyes have won 3 of their last 4 games, including ranked wins over Purdue and Michigan State.

The catalyst for Jake Diebler’s squad has been the defensive end of the floor. Ohio State has held Michigan State and Nebraska to well under 1 point per possession in its last 2 victories. The Buckeyes have also controlled the boards and kept their opponents off the free throw line during this recent stretch of good play.

Ohio State has also been improved offensively since Diebler took over. Freshman forward Devin Royal is a big reason why — he enters this game on a hot streak with back-to-back performances of 13+ points. Royal is 10-of-12 from the field and 7-of-7 from the foul line during that span and seems to be taking on a larger role in OSU’s offense.

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How did Michigan win the first matchup between these teams?

The first time these programs met, it was Michigan who came away with a convincing win in Ann Arbor back on Jan. 15. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, they’ve won only 1 game in the 6 weeks since that triumph over the Buckeyes. So how did they get that win?

For the most part, the first meeting between these programs was decided by 3-point variance — in both directions. Michigan shot a red-hot 12-of-23 from beyond the arc in that game. That’s the only time this season Michigan has shot better than 50% from beyond the arc on at least 20+ attempts. For the season, Michigan is making 36.7% of its 3-point attempts.

On the other side, the Buckeyes went just 3-of-25 from downtown in the loss to the Wolverines. Ohio State has not been a good 3-point shooting team recently or at all in Big Ten play (31.9%), but 3-of-25 is significantly worse than their standard.

Even with that disparity at the 3-point line, Ohio State still had a chance to win until Michigan broke away in the last couple minutes to win 73-65. With that being said, I wouldn’t take much away from the first matchup between these teams when handicapping this game.

1 pick for this game

Ohio State -10.5. I buy the Buckeyes’ improvement since firing Holtmann and I don’t think Michigan has anything left to play for this season. Ohio State is arguably in the midst of its best stretch of the season as it fights for seeding in the Big Ten Basketball Tournament. Barring another 3-point variance disaster, this should be a comfortable win for Ohio State.