
My way-too-early Top 10 for 2025
We probably have different ways of doing this, and that’s OK.
When I come up with rankings heading into the upcoming season, I try to lean heavily on past performance and a coach’s history. You can tell me that a 6-6 team has all the talent in the world coming back, but if they haven’t won 10 games in 2 decades, it’ll be awfully difficult for me to suggest that’s a top-10 team to start the season.
If your reasoning for ranking a team in the top 10 has anything to do with strength of schedule, you’ve lost me. I’ll go read somebody else’s ranking that doesn’t defer to one’s future projected strength of opponents.
Preseason rankings can be scoffed at, but they’re significant in a sport with an 8-month offseason. They drive attention to a program. They sell tickets. They help shape expectations.
Do they determine national champs? Eh, not as much as they used to. If you don’t believe that, go back to 2004 when Oklahoma and USC were No. 2 and No. 1, respectively in the preseason AP Top 25. Auburn could never jump either program even though the Tigers were also undefeated. That’s a super specific example.
But way-too-early rankings are still something that can showcase an on-the-rise team. Or perhaps it can show a traditional power is on the decline.
So now that Ohio State has captured the 2024 national championship, let’s spin it to some way-too-early rankings for 2025:
10. Miami
It’s not just the transfer addition of Carson Beck. I promise, though it does help that Shannon Dawson is back to run that offense. It’s the much-needed portal additions in the secondary. Three of the top-10 rated defensive backs in the portal are headed to Coral Gables, where the poaching of Minnesota DC Corey Hetherman will be monumental after he led a top-10 defense. It just can’t be worse than it was last year on that side of the ball. Alternatively, maybe Beck can’t be quite as good as Cam Ward was. Both can be true and Miami can still be a top-10 team. Disappointing ending to 2024 aside, Mario Cristobal showed that the Canes can be a force … as long as they can find a pulse on defense.
9. South Carolina
If you have a quarterback and a game-wrecking defensive end, you have an elite foundation. That’s what South Carolina has in LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, both of whom are easily among the best at their respective positions entering 2025. The better question is what’s around them. South Carolina lost Nagurski Award winner Kyle Kennard, as well as the valuable Tonka Hemingway, but defensive line additions Jaylen Brown and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy were high-upside moves that could be monumental with all eyes on Stewart. Retaining Clayton White as DC was also huge. Even if Sellers experiences somewhat of a learning curve with the promoted Mike Shula at OC, there’s still plenty of reason to believe South Carolina will look like the top-10 team that it was in the latter half of 2024.
8. LSU
Obviously, the return of Garrett Nussmeier was pivotal as 1 of the top-5 quarterbacks in the sport. But don’t forget about what it’ll mean for LSU to have Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins Jr. both back in Year 2 in Blake Baker’s defense. Year 2 of Mizzou’s 2023 defense with Baker was a massive success in an 11-win season. Brian Kelly also attacked the portal like he never has, especially at the pass-catcher spots. Nic Anderson, Barion Brown and Bauer Sharp will complement Aaron Anderson and prevent that pass-catching group from taking a step back. And after LSU struggled with its non-Zy Alexander corner options, it added the experienced Mansoor Delane from Virginia Tech, where he held opposing quarterbacks to a 45.8% completion rate when targeted. There’s no reason Kelly, who has 8 consecutive seasons of 9 wins, shouldn’t have perhaps his most urgent team to date in Year 4.
7. Clemson
Wait a minute. Dabo Swinney is out here using … the transfer portal?!? What year is this? OK, so he only got 3 transfers, 2 of whom were from the FBS level. But Clemson’s ranking is more about 2 key things. It returned Cade Klubnik, who saved his best for last with an impressive showing against a respected Texas defense. It’s also about the assistant move of the offseason to get Tom Allen from Penn State. Allen’s defense did a whole lot of heavy lifting for Penn State in its Playoff semifinal season. That addition was arguably even more important than Swinney’s post-2022 decision to poach Garrett Riley from national runner-up TCU. Swinney is now making the splashy personnel moves that suggest he’s ready to lead a national championship contender again.
6. Penn State
If Penn State had retained Allen, the Lions would’ve been top-6 worthy. Clemson prevented that from happening. With Allen gone, there’ll be questions on defense in a post-Abdul Carter world. Well, and the whole “James Franklin can’t beat top-5 teams” and “finding wide receivers who can show up in big-time games” things. But the combination of Drew Allar, running back Nick Singleton and OC Andy Kotelnicki should give Penn State an elite foundation to build on. The Lions will miss Tyler Warren, but there’s no reason this shouldn’t be a top-10 offense with an incredibly high overall floor.
5. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is one of the few teams that doesn’t sign 5-star talent that has now earned the right to be almost an automatic preseason top-7 team. That’s a testament to Marcus Freeman, who was the right person for that job in a post-Brian Kelly world. His coordinator hires of Mike Denbrock and Al Golden have been as good as anybody could’ve imagined. They maximized this personnel. Next year’s foundation should be with those coordinators, as well as Jeremiyah Love operating behind that veteran offensive line. It might have a bit of a learning curve both in the secondary and at quarterback in a post-Riley Leonard world, but it’s hard not to be bullish on the development of Freeman’s program through Year 3.
4. Georgia
UGA started in the top 3 of the AP Poll in 5 of the past 7 years, including a preseason No. 1 ranking in each of the past 2 seasons. Kirby Smart is 97-14 in his past 8 seasons and he signed nothing but top-3 classes during that stretch. In other words, he’s always going to get the benefit of the doubt with preseason rankings because he’s as battle-tested and as talent-rich as anyone in the sport. But it’s fair to leave UGA outside the top-3 with questions galore on the offensive side of the ball, and not just because Beck is gone. Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas were huge portal additions, and getting Dillon Bell back in that offense was key, but that offensive line wasn’t a world-beater by any means. Nate Frazier turning into the next great UGA running back would be the best possible development. Well, including Mike Bobo turning into Todd Monken.
3. Oregon
Dan Lanning has all his Ducks in a row. OK, no more dad jokes. I’ll instead point to the fact that Oregon waltzed into the Big Ten like it owned it. Oregon lost 8 NFL Draft selections, and it beat 3 Playoff teams en route to a 13-0 start. That’s worth remembering for a team that’ll keep Will Stein at OC, which bodes extremely well for former 5-star QB Dante Moore and a new-look offense in a post-Dillon Gabriel world. Defensively, that’s where there should be fewer questions. Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti will be a dynamic duo off the edge, and 2024 Burlsworth Award winner Bryce Boettcher returns in the middle of that defense after an All-Big Ten season. Lanning will have to lead a unit that’s better against the run, but it’s now become obvious that Oregon isn’t going anywhere.
2. Ohio State
There’s a reason this is a “way-too-early” ranking, but even without knowing all the NFL/assistant decisions, here’s what we know. The recently-crowned Buckeyes will still have arguably the best defensive player in the sport in Caleb Downs, as well as the best offensive player in the sport in Jeremiah Smith. A $20 million roster is returning its 2 best players. That’s not too shabby. Returning guys like Carnell Tate and potentially several starters off that offensive line will be huge, though the Buckeyes did already add 2 offensive linemen via the portal. The Ryan Day-Chip Kelly combination worked wonders vs. non-Michigan teams in Year 1. Even in the likely event that the defense takes a step back, there’s still going to be enough offensive firepower to keep the Buckeyes in the mix to repeat next season.
1. Texas
It’s not just Arch Manning, though I realize that’s what’ll be assumed. Manning, so far, has looked like the real deal, but it’s his surroundings that’ll be ideal. Tre Wisner and the return of the injured CJ Baxter should form one of the elite backfield duos in the sport, even behind a new-look offensive line. DeAndre Moore and Ryan Wingo both became every-down players in the wake of the late-season Isaiah Bond injury, but they also connected with Manning for touchdown grabs during his 2 games as a starter. But this elite Texas defense, which was 1 of the 3 or 4 best in America, will return a ton of key pieces.
Colin Simmons might be the SEC’s best returning player as a game-wrecking defensive end, Trey Moore became a monster in the latter half of the season, All-American linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. is entering his pre-Draft season and second-team All-American safety Michael Taaffe was also one of the most important returnees in the sport. As long as Pete Kwiatkowski doesn’t sneak off to the NFL, Texas will return the best defense in the sport. Combine that with the Manning-led offense and it’s not so crazy to picture Texas winning its first national title in 20 years.