If you’re the person who says that the rankings don’t matter until Selection Sunday, I’ve got news for you.

Tuesday night’s rankings matter. A lot.

They matter because of how many top-12 teams are idle and unable to improve their résumés. We also don’t know whether the selection committee will punish conference championship losers and reward idle teams.

What we know is that this is the last ranking before Selection Sunday, and there’s a ton to figure out. How high will emerging teams like South Carolina and Arizona State rise? Better yet, how far will Miami and Ohio State fall after their devastating second losses?

Those teams will set the stage for much of the discussion on Tuesday night. So what will those rankings look like?

Here’s a prediction of the CFP Top 12 (understanding that the Big 12 champion ultimately will be in the field):

12. South Carolina

This will be one of the toughest, most scrutinized decisions that the selection committee has been forced to make in the decade-plus of doing these rankings. Will South Carolina jump both Alabama and Ole Miss after beating Clemson even though it doesn’t have the head-to-head advantage with either SEC team? I say they will. The selection committee was already forced to ignore the head-to-head with the logjam of 2-loss SEC teams. They could do it again and reward a team that won 6 straight to end the season, including 4 against teams in the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup.

11. Miami

Yikes. Will Miami fall out of the top 12 altogether? It’s possible, though it’s worth noting that the selection committee consistently gave the Canes respect before that second loss. Syracuse is a 9-win team. Cam Ward is still fantastic. That résumé … is less than fantastic. Miami is the most interesting ranking that we’ll get on Tuesday night. A No. 11 ranking would put the Canes firmly on the bubble ahead of conference championship week. Anything in the top 10 would be a massive win for Miami.

10. Boise State

Boise State is the exception to my rule. That is, no conference championship participant in the top 12 should fall out of the Playoff if it loses that game. But my rule is so that an idle team doesn’t slide into that team’s spot. If UNLV beats Boise State, it’ll be 1 of the 5 highest-ranked conference champs and earn a spot. That could absolutely knock Boise State out when you consider the Big 12 champ will also earn a Playoff bid and jump into the top 12. But being at No. 10 would be massive for the Broncos.

9. Indiana

There was no world in which Indiana was going to lose to that Purdue team, but naturally, there were questions about whether IU could drop if it struggled in that game. A 66-0 Old Oaken Bucket beatdown wasn’t a struggle; it was one last reminder that Indiana destroyed the vast majority of its favorable schedule … just as you’d expect a Playoff team to do.

8. SMU

I don’t often agree with ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, but I completely agree with him that a conference championship participant shouldn’t fall out of the top 12 with a loss. At 11-1, SMU earned that extra game. There’s no way that Rhett Lashlee’s squad shouldn’t at least move up 1 spot to No. 8, and there’s no way that it should fall 4 spots if it loses to Clemson. It’d be a horrific precedent to set if the selection committee did that in the first year that it’s rewarding automatic bids to the highest-ranked conference champs.

7. Tennessee

Tennessee fans know they’ll move past Miami, but will the Vols move past Ohio State? I don’t think they will, though I’m not sure how much it matters. Tennessee is trying to hold onto a 5 through 8 spot that would earn a home Playoff berth. While the Vols are idle, a lot can impact that during conference championship weekend. Does Penn State lose and slot just behind Ohio State? Will Arizona State get a significant bump if it beat Iowa State to earn an auto bid as the Big 12 champ, but was still ranked below a Mountain West-winning Boise State? Stay tuned.

6. Ohio State

How far will the Buckeyes fall? Remember that they were the highest-ranked 1-loss team. The selection committee gave a ton of respect to that Penn State win and that close Oregon loss. There could be some more grace than people think, especially when you realize that the selection committee hasn’t exactly been impressed by 1-loss teams like SMU and Indiana.

5. Georgia

Yeah, the Dawgs needed not 1, not 2, not 3 … 8 overtimes to beat Georgia Tech. That was after a furious late rally to overcome a 17-0 halftime deficit. But working in the Dawgs’ favor were losses from Ohio State and Miami, both of whom will be idle during conference championship week. UGA will likely be the highest-ranked 2-loss team with 2 double-digit wins against teams who’ll be inside the top 7 of the AP Poll.

4. Notre Dame

I know, I know. Notre Dame isn’t getting a top-4 seed as an independent team. Those spots are reserved for the 4 highest-ranked conference champs. The Irish are a lock to host a home Playoff game. The better question is if they’ll get that top at-large spot. Texas or Oregon losing would likely prevent that from happening.

3. Penn State

The Lions went from a bit of an afterthought during conference championship weekend to now being rewarded an opportunity for a No. 1 seed if they can beat Oregon. Go back and tell someone that would be the case after the Ohio State game. What a weird sport this is.

2. Texas

Finally, the Longhorns added a marquee win to that résumé. Yeah, A&M could be more on the fringe of the CFP Top 25, but think about this: The Longhorns have 9 wins against bowl-eligible FBS teams. Even Oregon only has 5 such victories. Keep that in mind, especially if Texas loses in the SEC Championship and it’s in the conversation for that top at-large seed.

1. Oregon

No debate here. The only debate for the only FBS unbeaten in the regular season is whether Penn State can do anything to get in the Ducks’ way of the top seed. At worst, Oregon will be the No. 5 seed with a home Playoff game. Life could be a whole lot worse for Dan Lanning and Co.