And then there were 12.

You know. In case you haven’t heard.

The first poll of the 12-team Playoff era will be loaded with intrigue because instead of just writing off teams with 2 or more losses, we’ll be breaking down their complex résumés. Something tells me that we won’t agree on them. Whether it’ll be heated as the result of other national events that occur on Tuesday remains to be seen.

(Note that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champ will also have a guaranteed spot in the Playoff. So even if Boise State is ranked No. 13 in the final rankings, it would earn an automatic bid if it’s one of the 5 highest-ranked conference champs.)

Every Tuesday morning for the rest of the regular season, I’ll project what I expect the top 12 to look like. This is not how I believe it should look. This is simply how I believe the selection committee will rank these teams.

So here’s what I expect to see when the first Playoff rankings are revealed on Tuesday night:

12. LSU

This is somewhat irrelevant as it stands. LSU’s Playoff path is winning out, beginning on Saturday against Alabama. It’s not even about getting to the SEC Championship. Getting to 10-2 with potentially 3 wins against teams in the final CFP (South Carolina, Ole Miss and Alabama) would be enough to get into the field. Why would the selection committee put 2-loss LSU ahead of 2-loss Texas A&M when the Aggies beat them in Week 9? Something tells me the recency of A&M’s loss at South Carolina and LSU’s win vs. Ole Miss will carry more weight than the head-to-head. Fair? Debatable.

11. Alabama

I know what you’re thinking — Connor, in the decade of Playoff polls, how many times has Alabama ever been ranked outside of the top 10? In the final Playoff poll of 2019, Alabama was ranked No. 13. Other than that, the Tide have never been ranked outside of the top 10. That means that there’s at least a decent chance that on Saturday vs. LSU, Alabama will play a regular-season game as a non-top 10 CFP for the first time.

10. Indiana

And here’s where it gets interesting. The dreaded “eye test” subjective metric should favor an IU team that won every game by at least 14 points and who ranks in the top 5 in both yards/play and yards/play allowed. The “who have they beaten” metric suggests that IU will be a fringe top-10 team because its best wins were against 4-loss teams and they didn’t face a single Power Conference team in nonconference play. If anyone suggests that IU deserves to be ranked ahead of a bunch of 1-loss teams, remind them of that.

9. BYU

I’d rank BYU ahead of a Notre Dame team that lost to Northern Illinois, but again, this is how I believe the selection committee will look at it. BYU’s win at SMU will give it the edge ahead of Indiana, which has that aforementioned weak “strongest win” argument. Including the Kansas State blowout, BYU has 2 wins better than IU’s best. You can easily figure out why the selection committee won’t rank BYU ahead of 1-loss teams like Notre Dame, Tennessee, Penn State, Texas, Ohio State and Georgia. A program without an AP top-10 finish in the 21st century will get skepticism.

8. Notre Dame

Go back and tell a Notre Dame fan after the Northern Illinois loss that the Irish would be staring at a top-10 ranking in the first Playoff poll. They wouldn’t have believed you. It speaks to the craziness of the sport, which has just 4 remaining FBS unbeatens. While no current AP top-10 team has a loss worse than the Irish’s, I expect some grace from the selection committee. The Navy beatdown will help that justification, as has the fact that A&M and Louisville have racked up wins and are both AP Top-25 teams. The Irish’s ranking will be incredibly important for those seeking an at-large bid.

7. Tennessee

Tennessee has 7 first-half points since that Oklahoma win, which was on Sept. 21. Yet here the Vols are, likely looking at a top-10 ranking heading into mid-November. I suppose the Vols’ bizarre trend would look much worse if it were reversed and it was instead a second-half drought. The Vols might have a loss to an unranked Arkansas team, but they have that all-important Alabama win. The selection committee will reward the 1-loss Vols, even though it hasn’t been pretty at times.

6. Penn State

Ask yourself this question yet again — what’s Penn State’s best win? We know that the loss to Ohio State is the often overrated “quality loss,” but is the Lions’ best win really at home to 3-loss Illinois in a game that was 14-7 at the 2-minute timeout? Or is it at 4-loss Wisconsin in what turned into a battle of backup quarterbacks? That’s splitting hairs. What’s clear is that this 12-team format is ideal for a team like Penn State, which continues to lose the games that should define its season.

5. Texas

Welcome to 2024, wherein Texas’ best win was a 3-point win at Vandy. It’s not crazy to suggest that was more impressive than beating the defending champs by 3 scores in Ann Arbor. Some will argue that Texas getting destroyed by Georgia should knock the Longhorns behind Penn State. But again, the selection committee has often pointed to quality of wins over quality of losses. If Texas had played a thriller against UGA like Ohio State did at Oregon, I’d project the Longhorns to be at No. 4 instead of Miami. But that wasn’t the case.

4. Miami

Miami can’t control the fact that the ACC elite is a lonely group. It can, however, control the fact that it has Cam Ward and other teams do not. Ward’s ability to lead Miami back is the best thing it has going. It certainly isn’t a résumé that includes 1 win against a team inside the AP Top 25 (52-45 at now-No. 25 Louisville). But because of Miami’s high-flying offense and its undefeated record, a top-5 spot feels imminent.

3. Ohio State

The timing of the Penn State win will be huge. It could vault the Buckeyes past Georgia in those first rankings and that wouldn’t be a stunner, especially with UGA coming off a shaky showing against Florida. But beating a Penn State team that Ohio State owned in the Playoff era probably won’t carry as much weight as what Georgia did at Texas. The Buckeyes might also get slightly knocked for their nonconference scheduling and its 0 Power Conference foes, as opposed to Georgia facing Clemson in Atlanta (the Dawgs did that on top of their annual Georgia Tech matchup). Whatever the case, Ohio State should be in the top 4 without much debate.

2. Georgia

Let’s all acknowledge that UGA is flawed. Carson Beck’s turnover-prone ways have made for a different type of offensive season than expected. Style points have been hard to come by. Of course, the Texas win was responsible for nearly all of UGA’s style points this season. Clemson getting blown out by Louisville hurt UGA’s résumé, though the Dawgs still have 2 double-digit wins against teams who are currently ranked. That’s why they still have at least 1 more loss to give ahead of matchups at Ole Miss and vs. Tennessee. Showing up at No. 2 instead of No. 3 or No. 4 would confirm that.

1. Oregon

Remember when the Ducks were the most disappointing team among the preseason top 5? I do, too. Fun times. Since then, all Oregon has done is turn into the best team in the sport without a single blemish to speak of. Unlike fellow FBS unbeatens Army, Indiana and Miami, Oregon has a win against a current top-15 team. Shoot, it has 2 if you include the Boise State win that prompted the aforementioned panic about Oregon’s national title hopes. Since that game, the Ohio State win was the only Oregon game that was decided by less than 3 touchdowns. There shouldn’t be any intrigue at the top of the first Playoff poll.