I’m not saying you should take my Playoff predictions as gospel, but I am saying that I got 7 teams accurately predicted. That might not sound impressive, but remember that switching up Georgia and Ohio State accounted for 2 of those 5 misses, and the only team I failed to put in my top 12 prediction that actually cracked that group was No. 12 Boise State.

So yeah, it could’ve been much worse.

This week, we’ll have the late Tuesday rankings show in between a pair of college basketball games in the State Farm Champions Classic. That means we’ll be at the mercy of whenever the 6:30 p.m. ET Michigan State-Kansas game wraps up around 9 p.m. ET. Set your watches accordingly.

If and when we finally get the second Playoff Poll of 2024, here’s what I expect it to look like (understanding that the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion ultimately will be in the Playoff field):

12. Miami

Dropping 8 spots? Really? Could the selection committee take such a drastic measure? Yes, because the “eye test” argument doesn’t hold as much weight for 1-loss teams with thin résumés as it does for undefeated teams. There’ll be 2-loss teams like Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama that all climb Miami because they all have multiple wins against current AP Top 25 teams. That’ll add more relevance to the argument that Miami’s only way into the Playoff is winning the ACC.

11. Notre Dame

Wait, could the Irish actually take a step back after a beatdown of Florida State? Yes, just because Ole Miss deserves to leapfrog Notre Dame after beating Georgia. But this is one of the clearer Playoff paths. Notre Dame can win out and make the field. Alternatively, it can lose 1 game and be on the outside looking in without much consideration at 10-2 because of the Northern Illinois loss.

10. Georgia

The Dawgs are now among the 2-loss teams that could need all the style points to make it in as an at-large team. As challenging as that schedule is — it’s easily the toughest among contenders — you can’t rank UGA ahead of Ole Miss or Alabama because both teams have the head-to-head advantage. Ergo, the Tennessee game is an elimination game for the Dawgs, who have 1 home loss since the start of 2017.

9. Ole Miss

It wasn’t just that Ole Miss beat Georgia. It was that Ole Miss beat down Georgia. That’ll carry a ton of weight with the selection committee. It’ll also help Ole Miss’ at-large case that it clubbed a South Carolina team that figures to sneak into the CFP Top 25. So why not Ole Miss ahead of Alabama, who didn’t blow out Georgia in its victory? While the “strength of loss” argument is a bit overdone, we can’t forget that Kentucky loss. That’ll hurt the case to be the top-ranked 2-loss team.

8. Alabama

With that blowout win in Death Valley at night, there shouldn’t be any question that Alabama’s résumé got a massive boost. But it won’t get a massive boost in the rankings because there are still 3 unbeatens, and 1 of the teams that beat Alabama, Tennessee, is sitting there with 1 loss. You could argue that Alabama should be ranked ahead of a Penn State team that doesn’t have a win from a single team that got a vote in the AP Poll. But given how much love the selection committee gave James Franklin’s squad in the first rankings, it’s highly unlikely that they would fall to make up that kind of a gap after blowing out Washington.

7. BYU

You can debate if the Holy War ending was fair, but what was clearly unfair was BYU’s No. 9 ranking in the first Playoff poll. An undefeated BYU team had 2 wins against fellow CFP Top 25 teams, yet it was the last-ranked undefeated team. Bizarre it was. The only thing that seems like a safe bet is that BYU will jump Miami and Georgia after their road losses. If that doesn’t happen, it’ll be far more egregious than the first ranking.

6. Indiana

Indiana finally failed to cover a spread. Go figure that happened only because IU couldn’t beat Michigan by more than 2 touchdowns. The Hoosiers earned their first win in front of fans in that matchup since 1987 (they won in front of an empty stadium in 2020). The résumé still lacks a quality win — IU’s lone victory against a team with a winning record came against 5-4 Nebraska — but at 10-0, Curt Cignetti’s squad will go into the bye week with the ability to sit back and root for some chaos before the all-important showdown at Ohio State in Week 13.

5. Tennessee

Tennessee didn’t have the best day at the office against Mississippi State — Nico Iamaleava was sidelined with an upper-body injury in the second half — but the Vols just had to get to Georgia as a 1-loss team. Mission accomplished there. They’ll move past Miami and Georgia, though obviously, Saturday’s game will have a massive say in Tennessee’s résumé. Getting blown out by UGA would put a potential 10-2 Tennessee team very much on the fence — I realize the Alabama win should block the Tide — but handing the Dawgs their first home loss in 5 years would all but clinch the Vols’ Playoff spot … as long as they avoid a Vandy loss.

4. Penn State

Would I have Penn State at No. 4? No chance. Will the selection committee double down by moving Penn State up past Miami and continue to give it the benefit of the doubt for the close Ohio State loss? Yes. Again, Penn State doesn’t have a win against a single team that has a vote in the current AP Top 25. The selection committee has already decided an 11-1 Penn State team will be in position to host a home Playoff game. Anything but a top-4 spot on Tuesday will be surprising.

3. Texas

If we’re going to criticize Penn State’s résumé, we need to point out that Vanderbilt and Colorado State are the only bowl-eligible teams that Texas beat. We knew it would be a favorable schedule, but Texas getting housed against the only team with 3 or fewer losses should be dissected more than just “they pass the eye test.” I agree that winning so convincingly at Michigan early in the season was still impressive, but it’ll be worth discussing what the selection committee does with Texas if it falters in College Station to close the regular season. For now, Texas can continue to rack up wins against unranked SEC teams and know that it won’t be dinged.

2. Ohio State

A No. 2 ranking feels imminent, especially after the Georgia loss at Ole Miss. The best news for the Buckeyes in that first ranking wasn’t that it was at No. 2; it was that Penn State came in at No. 6. By being the top-ranked 1-loss team, the Buckeyes can withstand an Indiana loss and still make the field as a 10-2 at-large team. Alternatively, they can beat IU, get to the Big Ten Championship and compete for the No. 1 overall seed.

1. Oregon

No debates here. Oregon took care of business against Maryland and is set up to get to Indianapolis at 12-0. That’s ideal. Oregon essentially can clinch a Playoff berth if it wins at Wisconsin because even if Washington stuns the Ducks in the post-Kalen DeBoer era and loses in the Big Ten Championship, an 11-2 Oregon team would still have elite wins against Ohio State and Boise State. The better question is whether Dan Lanning’s squad will face Ohio State or Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. Either way, the Ducks are looking like a lock to, at worst, host a home Playoff game.