If we believe that the selection committee isn’t about to get weird, Tuesday night’s Playoff poll was as big as it gets without being final.

That’s because, with so many idle teams during conference championship weekend, the expectation is that movement will be limited. As in, conference championship losers shouldn’t fall out of the CFP Top 12 with a loss in an extra game that they earned (more thoughts on that in a minute), and idle teams won’t shuffle spots based on conference championship results.

With that in mind, yes, Tuesday was monumental.

Here’s what the full CFP Top 25 looked like:

 

Here are takeaways from a crucial Tuesday ranking:

Alabama being ranked at No. 11 is _____________.

“Maddening for everyone not named Alabama.”

The big question heading into Tuesday was what would happen in spots 11-15. Would South Carolina leapfrog fellow 3-loss teams Alabama and Ole Miss even though it didn’t have the head-to-head advantage against either of them? Nope. As we found out, the committee didn’t care that the Gamecocks had won 6 in a row with 4 victories against teams in the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup.

At No. 11, Alabama’s path to the Playoff will essentially come down to the ACC Championship.

At No. 11, Alabama would be the last team in because of the Big 12 champion (No. 15 Arizona State or No. 16 Iowa State) earning one of those top 12 spots, as will the Mountain West winner (No. 10 Boise State or No. 20 UNLV).

That’s bad news for No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 14 South Carolina. The selection committee isn’t about to have a change of heart for those idle teams.

All of their respective coaches attempted to do as much lobbying as possible, but ultimately, the selection decided that Alabama beating 3 current CFP Top 25 teams (No. 5 Georgia, No. 14 South Carolina and No. 19 Mizzou) was more impactful than the fact that 2 of those 3 losses came to 6-6 teams.

That didn’t exactly squash the notion that the selection committee ignores the logo.

So then is SMU safe with a loss at No. 8?

The ACC’s worst nightmare would be if SMU fell below idle Alabama after a loss to Clemson. Manuel’s comments on Tuesday left that door open.

Never rule out the possibility that the selection committee could decide that a blowout loss to Clemson is an unforgivable sin for SMU, and that suddenly an idle 9-3 Alabama team is more worthy of that final spot. Until the selection committee actually has to make that choice, I wouldn’t assume anything either way.

Would that be a disaster? Yes. Punishing an SMU team who ran the table in conference play and earned that ACC Championship as an 11-1 team with 6 wins against bowl-eligible teams and 1 Week 2 loss by 3 points to No. 18 BYU. There would be an outcry, and not just from the ACC. If the selection committee immediately rewarded an idle team over a conference championship loser, it would be an awful precedent to set.

Then again, the ACC watched a 13-0 team get left out this year. Nothing would be a surprise anymore.

Ohio State wasn’t going to fall below Tennessee

That’s not what Tennessee fans want to hear after watching the Buckeyes inexplicably lose at home to a 7-5 Michigan team, but it’s reality.

The Vols lost to a 6-6 Arkansas team, albeit on the road. So then if the 2 losses were similar, what did the selection committee default to? The wins. Ohio State beat a pair of 11-1 Big Ten teams. Tennessee’s best win is against 9-3 Alabama, and its second-best win was … in overtime at home against 7-5 Florida.

That’s what this came down to. Tennessee has 2 wins over FBS teams with winning records (both at home) while Ohio State has 2 wins vs. teams currently in the CFP Top 10, 1 of which was on the road.

That matters because the Vols want to earn that first-round home game. Remember that Notre Dame will not be in the final top-4 as an independent, so the Irish and Ohio State have essentially already clinched a 5-8 spot. What remains to be seen is what happens to the losers of the Big Ten Championship and the SEC Championship.

The best result for Tennessee would be Penn State getting blown out by Oregon. Why? Because Oregon is a lock for a home Playoff berth, even with a loss. I’d argue that Texas is, as well, and if you believe that Georgia won’t fall below Tennessee after earning an SEC Championship bid, that also limits the Vols’ ceiling. But if Penn State’s résumé as a 2-loss team is being compared to Tennessee’s, that argument favors the Vols.

What should we expect on Sunday? Perhaps not much chaos at all and more about the specifics of matchups

I say that knowing that the aforementioned scenario of Clemson beating SMU would create the most amount of drama. But if SMU takes care of a Clemson team who lost its only 3 games against FBS teams who won 8 games, we’ll lack drama over who the top 12 is.

What’ll still be intriguing is seeding. We’ll likely know the top 4 seeds, though perhaps there could be some intrigue with Penn State and Texas if both teams win their matchups to make a final case for the No. 1 seed. The home Playoff game scenarios will be of great interest. Will we get weird matchups like Georgia hosting Indiana? If Alabama makes the field, will it travel somewhere like Penn State? And is the 5-seed about to get a tough draw by facing a red-hot team like 10-2 Arizona State?

Sunday will still be must-see TV, even if it’ll lack drama (and urgency).