O'Gara: Takeaways from the 4th College Football Playoff Poll
It’s OK to admit it. After a weekend of chaos, it was perfectly fine to anticipate a rankings show for the latest Playoff Poll.
Of course, it was only fitting that after 7 of the top 20 teams fell, we had to wait until 8:30 p.m. ET to get the latest CFP Top 25.
This is what the new CFP Top 25 looked like:
Here are the biggest takeaways from Tuesday’s ranking:
Indiana falls to … a respectable No. 10
If you were wondering what awaited the Hoosiers after their blowout loss to Ohio State, well, you got the answer that confirmed what many felt by the end of Saturday. Chaos benefitted IU — a ton. Alabama and Ole Miss losing was pivotal. Even BYU suffering loss No. 2 felt significant.
IU is the lowest-ranked 1-loss team among the Power Conference schools. It still didn’t fall below Boise State, who has a Top 25 win (UNLV) and a more respectable loss (by 3 at No. 1 Oregon). That’s a small win for IU. After all, it’s still the Big Ten. Favorable draw or not, getting through Nebraska and Washington is different than facing San Jose State and Wyoming … who nearly beat Boise State on Saturday.
The point is Curt Cignetti’s squad might’ve failed to capitalize on a golden opportunity, but a win against lowly Purdue should be enough for the Hoosiers to emerge from the chaos and make the field. Of course … some more chaos can unfold and perhaps a Playoff game in Bloomington could be in the cards.
One thing at a time.
Who else benefitted from that chaos besides IU? Tennessee and the ACC
I mean, Vols fans were Gator chomping in Neyland. If that doesn’t tell you about how much the Vols needed things outside of their control to break right, I don’t know what would. That indeed happened with Indiana, Alabama and Ole Miss falling. As a result, Tennessee is now in a nice spot at No. 8 with a clear path to 10-2. Just beat Vandy and one would assume that Playoff berth will be locked in.
Seeing Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M suffer loss No. 3 was also pivotal for the ACC. Instead of looking like a 1-bid league, getting 2 teams in feels most likely. That would entail No. 6 Miami not puking on its shoes against Syracuse, as well as No. 9 SMU avoiding disaster against 6-5 Cal.
If a 1-loss SMU, who already clinched an ACC Championship berth, faces a 1-loss Miami in the conference title game, they shouldn’t fall out of the top 11-12 with a loss. If Saturday reminded us of anything, though, it’s don’t assume anything.
As for the other thing that could break the ACC’s way …
Clemson is getting the benefit of the doubt in ways it doesn’t deserve
If the season ended today, Clemson would be the first team out of the Playoff at No. 12 (don’t forget that a Big 12 team will get an automatic bid and enter the top 12). That’s far more egregious than any other ranking. Clemson has 3 games vs. FBS teams with 7 wins. It went 1-2 and was outscored 87-48.
To recap, Clemson has 2 blowout losses — neither of which were even true road games — and its only win vs. an FBS team with 7 victories came in a 24-20 thriller at Pitt, which suffered that loss amid its current 4-game losing streak.
Ah, yes. The Tigers have a chance to pick up a quality win vs. No. 15 South Carolina this weekend. That’s true. If Clemson takes care of No. 15 South Carolina and is 10-2 and on the outside looking in at the ACC Championship — it would need a Miami loss to Syracuse to make the conference title game — then we can discuss a potential top-12 ranking. But it felt like the selection committee jumped the gun.
Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina might all have 3 losses, but all of them have multiple wins that are better than what Clemson did at 4-loss Pitt. And for what it’s worth, that doesn’t mean South Carolina is suddenly worthy of making the field with 3 losses, 1 of which was a blowout loss at home.
That’s why South Carolina-Clemson shouldn’t be a play-in game for the Playoff. But clearly, the selection committee thinks more of Clemson than I do, so who knows?
The thing we should all be wondering about the next week and a half
That is, will conference championship participants get some immunity from the selection committee? Lane Kiffin had a poorly timed rant about that, but he was fair to bring it up. Teams not wanting to play in conference championships would be a brutal fear to confirm for the selection committee.
In this era, wherein several idle teams will be in the top 12 of the final CFP, it doesn’t make sense to drop a team OUT of the top 12 just because it lost a conference title game. Teams who already have multiple losses like Georgia could be in jeopardy of that. If the selection committee moved an idle 2-loss Clemson team into the field past UGA, that’d be 2023 Florida State levels of scrutiny for the selection committee.
While I disagree with Joey Galloway’s take that Tennessee should feel “relieved” not to play in the conference title game — let’s not diminish the reward of a first-round bye in a potential 17-game season — this precedent is pivotal. The selection committee can maintain that incentive while not unnecessarily punishing teams who earned an extra game.
Fingers crossed that sanity wins out in the next couple weeks.