O'Gara: Takeaways from the second Playoff poll of 2024
We had to wait a little bit longer for the second Playoff poll, but it’s here.
Following the first college basketball game of the State Farm Classic, which ended surprisingly early, the second Playoff rankings of 2024 were revealed.
Here’s what that looked like:
Here are takeaways from Tuesday night’s reveal:
The selection committee righted the wrong of last week’s ranking for BYU and Indiana
Last week, the obvious takeaway was that undefeated Indiana and BYU were ranked too low at No. 8 and No. 9, respectively. A pair of unbeaten teams were slighted for different reasons. Indiana lacks the quality wins against the current CFP Top 25, but the margin of victory is among the best in the sport, while BYU was the inverse of that.
Well, the selection committee righted that wrong. Now, Indiana is at No. 5 and BYU is at No. 6.
Sure, Georgia was an obvious candidate to fall behind those 2, and some might’ve assumed that Miami would take a tumble after its first loss. But in addition to hurdling past those 2 squads, Indiana and BYU quietly moved past 1-loss Tennessee, who had a ho-hum win against Mississippi State. That’s significant for a pair of teams who would like the safety net of a potential at-large berth.
It feels like the selection committee has IU and BYU paired together despite their different Playoff résumés. Perhaps that’ll only last another 2 weeks after IU takes on Ohio State in Columbus a week from Saturday. For now, though, it was a positive development for 2 teams who had to feel slighted by that first ranking.
Penn State and Texas look like they can stomach 1 more loss, despite thin résumés
I’ll stop making the same point every week, but it’s worth repeating 1 more time. Neither Penn State nor Texas have a win against the current CFP Top 25, yet they continue to get the benefit of having that “elite loss.”
The interesting thing is that Texas’ loss actually took a bit of a hit with Georgia suffering that second loss, though obviously the Longhorns stayed on schedule by blowing out a depleted Florida squad. Penn State also got a blowout win against a middle-of-the-pack Washington squad, which allowed it to rise as Georgia and Miami fell.
It’s becoming clear that while many others are wondering if they’ll be given the benefit of the doubt as a 2-loss team, Penn State and Texas don’t appear to be in that camp. Is that fair? It depends on what a potential second loss would look like. Texas losing in College Station to close the regular season could be another “quality loss,” and Penn State could get some grace if it loses a thriller at Minnesota to a potential 8-win Gopher squad.
The selection committee pretty clearly has its mind made up about Texas and Penn State passing the eye test. Arguing about that might be a lost cause at this point.
Georgia and Tennessee as an elimination game? It’s starting to feel like it.
We could still have tons of chaos down the stretch, but what’s becoming more clear is that Tennessee and Georgia will be fighting for their Playoff lives on Saturday in Athens.
By being ranked No. 7, Tennessee just fell behind BYU and Indiana. With a loss to Georgia, the Vols would be blocked by the Dawgs, who are currently the first team out of the Playoff. Sure, Tennessee would deserve to have the head-to-head against Alabama, but would the Vols fend off a 2-loss Ole Miss team? What about a 2-loss Texas, who is currently 4 spots ahead of Tennessee even though they both have 1 loss? That’s the issue for the Vols, who have 1 CFP Top 25 win and a loss against middle-of-the-road Arkansas.
No. 12 Georgia, on the other hand, is now squarely behind 2-loss Ole Miss AND 2-loss Alabama for losing those head-to-heads. Both of those teams could miss out on the SEC Championship and earn at-large berths. That makes the path for a 3-loss Georgia team feel chaos-dependent, even though the Dawgs have the toughest strength of schedule.
What does that mean? Saturday in Athens will be as big as it gets.
It would be stunning if the Big Ten failed to put 4 teams in
At this point, that might be the safest bet among the conference supremacy discussions. With 4 of the top 5 teams in the field, the Big Ten is setting itself up to have an ideal situation. That is, an undefeated team facing a 1-loss team in the conference title game with a pair of 1-loss teams on the outside looking in.
That’s how this would play out if there weren’t any upsets. Of course, even if Indiana beat Ohio State in Columbus, a 10-2 Ohio State team that was ranked as the top-1 loss team in the first 2 Playoff polls would still be set up well because of the win at Penn State. The selection committee might not be a fan of the Big Ten’s depth by continuing to have those 4 teams in the field, but having them in the top 5 carries more weight than whether Illinois or Minnesota can crack the Top 25.
Go figure that the Big Ten has the clearest path to get 4 teams in the field and not the SEC, who could have a cluster of 10-2 squads that baffles the selection committee in a few weeks.