Ohio State vs. Michigan preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Ohio State vs. Michigan has become one of the most important games on the college football calendar on an annual basis. 

This year’s version of The Game is likely for a spot in the College Football Playoff — assuming the winner goes on to defeat Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Given that both teams are undefeated as Michigan looks to win its 3rd straight matchup in this series, the stakes are as high as ever.

When looking at the statistical profiles for Michigan and Ohio State, it’s clear that both teams are elite and worthy of national championship contention. Strength of schedule is a question mark for both squads, however — which is something that will be examined more deeply in this preview.

Let’s break down some betting trends, advanced stats and other useful info about these teams:

Ohio State vs. Michigan Betting Lines

Spread: Michigan -3.5 (DraftKings)

Total: 46 points (DraftKings)

Check out these top sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s elite Big Ten game.

Betting trends to know for Ohio State

• Ohio State is 6-3-1 against the spread this season
  • The Buckeyes are 5-1 in their last 6
• The under is 9-1 in Ohio State games this season
• Ohio State is 1-2-1 against the spread on the road this season
  • The lone cover was against Purdue
• Ohio State has been the favorite every game so far this season prior to Week 13 vs. Michigan

Ohio State has been a profitable side to lean on this season, although it has been much better at home than it’s been on the road. The Buckeyes are also in uncharted territory this week as this will be their first game as an underdog in 2023.

Betting trends to know for Michigan

• Michigan is 5-5 against the spread this season
• The over is 5-4-1 in Michigan games this season
  • The over is 5-1-1 in Michigan’s last 7 games; the only ‘under’ in that stretch was against Penn State
• Michigan is 1-4 against the spread this season at home
• Michigan has been favored in every game so far this season
  • This is the first time all season Michigan has been favored at home by fewer than 31 points

Strangely, Michigan has been better ATS on the road than at the Big House this season. The Wolverines have really struggled against the number in Ann Arbor — granted, all previous home games have featured spreads of at least 31 points. When Michigan is preparing for an opponent it needs to respect, it has (generally) performed very well this season. The Wolverines are 3-1 against the spread when favored by 20 points or fewer this year.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

• Ohio State strength of schedule: 45th
• Michigan strength of schedule: 58th

 

• Ohio State strength of record: 2nd
• Michigan strength of record: 3rd

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

• 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
• 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
• 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

• Ohio State rushing offense success rate: 46% (73rd percentile)
• Michigan rushing defense success rate: 31% (98th percentile)

Ohio State’s running game has been up-and-down this season, with injuries playing a big role in that. With TreVeyon Henderson healthy, the Buckeyes have had a much stronger rushing attack. Still, this could be a relative weakness going up against a Michigan rush defense that has been nearly impenetrable in 2023. The Wolverines have not allowed a 100-yard rusher yet this season. Only Nebraska has managed to clear 5 yards per rush — and even that only happened because of an outlier big run of 74 yards. 

• Michigan rushing offense success rate: 49% (86th percentile)
• Ohio State rushing defense success rate: 33% (95th percentile)

Michigan’s rushing attack has been great this season, led by Blake Corum. However, it has rarely been tested vs. an elite rushing defense. That will be the case this weekend when Michigan lines up against the Buckeyes.

When Michigan faced Penn State — arguably the best rushing defense in the country — earlier this season, it performed well below its standard for the season as a whole. The Wolverines posted a rushing success rate of just 33%. The Nittany Lions’ rush defense is even tougher than OSU’s statistically, but this could still be our best look at what to expect when Michigan tries to run the ball on Saturday vs. Ohio State.

Passing Success Rate

• Ohio State passing offense success rate: 51% (95th percentile)
• Michigan passing defense success rate: 31% (99th percentile)

Ohio State’s passing game has been strong this season, especially considering the relatively slow start from Kyle McCord and Devin Brown. The Buckeyes have been tested by an elite pass defense one other time this season — when they faced Penn State back in Week 8. Ohio State posted a passing success rate of 43% in that game. That’s not an elite number, but it’s a respectable output against an elite defense. 

Michigan’s defense has really no experience facing an offense with the firepower that Ohio State has with Marvin Harrison Jr. and the rest of the Buckeyes’ elite receiving corps. By passer efficiency rating, the best aerial attack Michigan has faced this season belongs to Maryland. The Terps rank 3rd in the Big Ten in that category (behind Ohio State and Michigan) but just 59th nationally. The Terps threw for 247 yards on 31 attempts against Michigan in Week 12.

• Michigan passing offense success rate: 56% (99th percentile)
• Ohio State pass defense success rate: 35% (92nd percentile)

It would be nice to be able to examine Michigan’s performance in the passing game vs. Penn State to try to get an idea of how the Wolverines will fare vs. an elite Buckeyes’ secondary. But Michigan only attempted 8 passes in that game against the Nittany Lions, instead opting to mostly rely on the run game. For what it’s worth (probably not much given the small sample size), Michigan did post a passing success rate of 55% vs. Penn State — nearly in-line with its season average.

Ohio State’s pass defense has been tested a bit more than Michigan’s has been. The Buckeyes have faced Maryland as well, but they’ve also battled Notre Dame — who has the No. 11-ranked passing efficiency rating in the country in 2023. The Irish threw for 175 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions on 25 attempts on Ohio State back in September. That stat line might seem underwhelming, but that’s about as well as anyone has thrown the ball vs. Ohio State all season when you exclude garbage time. The Buckeyes haven’t allowed more than 150 passing yards in a game since Oct. 28 when Wisconsin had 165 yards on 39 attempts. This Ohio State secondary looks legit.

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

• Ohio State offensive havoc rate: 15% (71st percentile)
• Michigan defensive havoc rate: 21% (96th percentile)

Michigan’s defense draws a lot of its success from havoc plays. The Wolverines have picked off 14 passes this season, which is tied for the lead in the Big Ten. Ohio State does a pretty good job of limiting havoc, although it hasn’t been perfect. Facing this Michigan defense will be a big test for the Buckeyes.

• Michigan offensive havoc rate: 11% (97th percentile)
• Ohio State defensive havoc rate: 18% (67th percentile)

Michigan leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss allowed with only 38 through 11 games — that’s a surefire way to limit havoc plays. Ohio State’s defense hasn’t been elite in this area, but it hasn’t needed to be. The Buckeyes have no problem getting you off schedule without havoc plays — their defensive success rate on standard downs is in the 97th percentile nationally.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

• Ohio State points scored per opportunity: 4.43 (83rd percentile)
• Michigan points allowed per opportunity: 2.15 (100th percentile)

When I previewed Michigan’s game vs. Penn State earlier this season, I noted the Wolverines were then only allowing 1.19 points per scoring opportunity on the season. Since then, that number has nearly doubled — and Michigan’s defense is still in the 100th percentile in points per scoring opportunity allowed. Michigan has only allowed 12 red zone scores on 18 red zone attempts in 2023 — both figures lead the nation.

Offensively, Ohio State needs to be a bit more ruthless in the red zone. The Buckeyes have scored a touchdown on only 61.7% of its red zone attempts this season, which is in the middle-of-the-pack in the Big Ten.

• Michigan points scored per opportunity: 4.88 (93rd percentile)
• Ohio State points allowed per opportunity: 2.29 (99th percentile)

This is another strength-on-strength. Michigan is used to generating plenty of scoring opportunities, but they may only get a limited number of chances against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is used to keeping teams out of the red zone for the most part, but then limiting them to field goals or turnovers when they do get there. OSU has given up 10 red zone touchdowns all year, which is tied for 3rd nationally.

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

• Ohio State offense: 8th
• Ohio State defense: 4th
• Ohio State special teams: 81st

 

• Michigan offense: 3rd
• Michigan defense: 1st
• Michigan special teams: 89th

ESPN SP+ 

• Ohio State offense: 19th
• Ohio State defense: 1st
• Ohio State special teams: 13th

 

• Michigan offense: 6th
• Michigan defense: 2nd
• Michigan special teams: 7th 

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.