Ohio State vs. Michigan preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Ohio State will be looking for its first road win of the season on Monday as it takes on Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Both the Buckeyes and Wolverines will carry losing streaks into this rivalry-game matchup. Ohio State has lost back-to-back games, but still has a reasonable path to the NCAA Tournament via an at-large bid if it can turn things around. Michigan, on the other hand, has lost 5 straight games (and 8 of its last 10) and has really struggled at home so far this season.

Let’s break down this matchup:

Ohio State vs. Michigan Betting Odds

Spread: Ohio State -1.5 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/Under 147 points (DraftKings)

Betting trends to know for Ohio State

Ohio State is 6-9-1 against the spread
The over is 9-7 in Ohio State games
Ohio State is 4-9-1 against the spread as a favorite
Ohio State is 0-2 against the spread on the road
Ohio State is 0-2 against the spread as a road favorite

Ohio State has not been great in this spot so far in 2023-24. As a favorite of 5 points or less, Ohio State is just 1-4 against the spread this season. The Buckeyes have failed to beat the number in their last 3 contests overall and haven’t covered the spread as a favorite at all since Dec. 21.

Betting trends to know for Michigan

Michigan is 5-11 against the spread
The over is 11-5 in Michigan games
Michigan is 2-3 against the spread as an underdog
Michigan is 2-5 against the spread at home
Michigan is 1-4 against the spread in Big Ten games

Fading Michigan has been an exceptionally profitable strategy so far this season. The Wolverines have not done a good job of recovering from the loss of Hunter Dickinson, Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin from last year’s team. This team is 6-10 and somehow they’ve been even worse against the number — especially lately. The Wolverines have covered the spread just once in their last 10 games. Over that span, Michigan is failing to cover by an average of more than 8 points per game.

3 notes for the game

Breaking down Ohio State’s road woes

Ohio State has played 2 true road games to this point in the season and has lost both of them — to opponents who are arguably worse than Michigan. The Buckeyes fell to Penn State on the road back on Dec. 9 and then to Indiana in Bloomington on Jan. 6. However, I’m not too concerned about either one of those results as it relates to how Ohio State may perform in Ann Arbor on Monday.

Against Penn State, Ohio State had a strong offensive showing. The Buckeyes went 11-of-26 from 3-point range and dominated the glass on both ends. The problem was that Penn State used an exceptionally hot shooting game to go on a big run down the stretch. The Nittany Lions made 41.7% of their 3-point attempts in that game despite being at just 29.9% on the year. Ohio State led by as many as 18 points in the second half, but let Penn State off the hook.

Against Indiana, the Buckeyes had a rough shooting game. They went just 7-of-27 from beyond the arc in a 6-point loss to the Hoosiers. Indiana has been solid against the 3-ball this season, but not that good. It’s tough to win at this level when you miss 20 3-pointers in a 40-minute game.

Ohio State has an edge from beyond the arc

Both Ohio State and Michigan have been solid 3-point shooting teams offensively this season, but the Wolverines have struggled mightily on the defensive end. Michigan is allowing teams to convert 35.5% of its 3-point tries this season, which ranks 285th nationally per KenPom. That number does dip to 33% when only looking at Michigan’s 5 Big Ten games so far this season, but that’s a bit misleading. The Wolverines have faced the 3 worst 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten so far this season — Maryland, Penn State and Minnesota — and none of Michigan’s conference opponents rank in the top half of the league in 3-point shooting to this point in the year.

Ohio State will break Michigan’s streak of facing bad 3-point offenses. The Buckeyes have made 36.8% of their long range tries this season, which is good enough for 45th nationally. However, Ohio State is also a high-volume 3-point shooting team — at least by Big Ten standards. The Buckeyes get 32.1% of their points from 3-pointers, which is the 3rd-highest figure in the Big Ten according to KenPom (behind Nebraska and Michigan).

Jamison Battle is Ohio State’s top 3-point shooter. He attempts 6.8 3-pointers per game and is making them at a 46.8% clip so far this season. Bruce Thornton has been pretty good, too, as he’s made 33.3% of his 5.4 long-range attempts per game.

Michigan has been miserable, but there is a case for picking the Wolverines

This has been a year to forget for Michigan, and it’s barely even mid-January. It started back in the offseason when Michigan lost Hunter Dickinson to the transfer portal and then suffered a decommitment from ex-UNC guard Caleb Love (who is now at Arizona). Juwan Howard missed the early part of the season due to offseason heart surgery, but he still made headlines before his return to the bench for reportedly having an altercation with a longtime staffer at practice. Most recently, Michigan guard Dug McDaniel received a 6-game suspension that only covers away games (meaning he will suit up vs. the Buckeyes on Monday).

On the court this season, Michigan is 6-10 overall, 1-4 in Big Ten play and has lost 5 straight games entering this rivalry game contest with the Buckeyes. Barring a miracle turnaround, the Wolverines are on track to miss the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2007-08.

Still, there’s a case for picking Michigan in this matchup. For one thing, home teams have dominated in college basketball this season and in the Big Ten in general. Per KenPom, home teams have won 75.7% of all Big Ten games so far this season — up from 65.7% last season and 59.3% in 2021-22.

Ohio State also has a major internal problem it needs to solve with starting guard Roddy Gayle. The sophomore has been dreadfully inefficient this season (54.7% true shooting percentage) while having the highest usage rate on the team (25.4%). In 5 Big Ten games, Gayle is shooting 31% from the field and has almost twice as many turnovers as he does assists. Gayle’s issues have caused big problems for Ohio State’s offense, but there’s still time to turn things around — either by Gayle improving or by replacing him in the starting lineup.

1 pick for this game

Ohio State -1.5. Yes, home teams have been a tough code to crack in the Big Ten this year. But Michigan has already lost 2 home games to Big Ten opponents as well as non-conference home games to Long Beach State and McNeese State. The vibes in Ann Arbor are at an all-time low and I don’t see nearly enough of an edge in the matchup data to justify picking Michigan in this spot. The Wolverines have consistently underperformed market expectations (1-9 against the spread in their last 10) and I think that will continue on Monday. Ohio State is better on both ends of the floor, has the better coach and should be hungry to earn a big rivalry win after taking back-to-back losses.